9, February 2020
Ireland: Sinn Fein’s surge in general election leaves three parties tied 0
Support for left-wing Irish nationalists Sinn Fein surged in an election on Saturday, leaving it tied with the party of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar but unlikely to emerge with the highest number of seats, an exit poll showed.
Instead Varadkar’s Fine Gael is likely to compete with fellow centre-right rival Fianna Fail to secure the most seats and the right to try to form a coalition government – a task analysts called extremely difficult.
The Ipsos MRBI exit poll showed Fine Gael on 22.4%, Sinn Fein on 22.3% and pre-election favourites Fianna Fail on 22.2%.
Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), is likely to fall behind the other two parties because it fielded far fewer candidates.
Still, its breakthrough represents a major realignment of Irish politics, which for a century has been dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
“It’s a very, very good result for Sinn Fein… but even though it is a statistical tie, we would expect Fine Gael and Fianna Fail to fight it out to get the most seats,” said Gary Murphy, Professor of Politics at Dublin City University.
Fianna Fail has ruled out going into coalition for the first time with Fine Gael and both parties say they will not govern with Sinn Fein, meaning there is no obvious government to be formed, he added.
“There are very rocky times ahead,” he said.
‘Historical election’
Counting begins at 0900 GMT on Sunday with some results expected from early afternoon. The final and potentially decisive seats in Ireland’s 160-member parliament may not be filled until Monday or even later.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have said they will look to smaller parties to form what would likely be another minority government requiring support of one of the two main parties from the opposition benches.
The parties have swapped power at every election since emerging from the opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war. They have similar policies on the economy and Brexit trade talks.
Sinn Fein has moved on from the long leadership of Gerry Adams, seen by many as the face of a bloody IRA war against British rule in Northern Ireland. Its candidates were the biggest gainers by vote share, up from 14% at the last election in 2016.
With Fine Gael and Fianna Fail marginally down, the outcome demonstrated some appetite for change.
“The days of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail dominating Irish politics are over,” Fine Gael parliamentary party chairman Martin Heydon told national broadcaster RTE.
“Our elections are becoming more volatile. More like a lot of other European countries. The ability to form governments is going to be hard after this.”
A new generation of politicians led by Mary Lou McDonald spearheaded the groundswell of support for Sinn Fein, particularly among younger voters on the defining election issue of the cost and availability of housing.
Her deputy leader in the Irish parliament, Pearse Doherty, said the exit poll represented a vote of “a historic nature” for the party.
“You can see in the figures there today that there is a mood for change,” he told RTE.
Source: REUTERS
21, February 2020
Ireland: Prime Minister Leo Varadkar resigns after inconclusive election result 0
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar resigned on Thursday, but stayed on as interim leader while the country’s three main parties battle out coalition talks after an inconclusive election.
Varadkar tendered his resignation as taoiseach, or premier, to President Michael Higgins after the first sitting of Ireland’s lower house of parliament since an 8 February election which radically recast the political landscape.
“In accordance with the constitution, the taoiseach and the government will continue to carry on their duties until successors have been appointed,” a government statement said.
Parties in the 160 seat chamber — the Dail — convened and nominated candidates to lead a new government as taoiseach but with none commanding a majority it was adjourned until 5 March.
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald received the most votes backing her.
At 45 it was far short of the 80 needed to take office but it was a symbolic victory reflecting the surge the nationalist party enjoyed in the election.
Sinn Fein, which once served as the political wing of paramilitary the Irish Republican Army (IRA), became the second biggest party with 37 seats — breaking the historic duopoly of centre-right parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
“The people who vote for us aren’t going anywhere,” said McDonald.
“We have made a commitment to them to represent them well and to make our very best effort to deliver that government of change — and that is precisely what we intend to do.”
‘A government for change’
McDonald outstripped the 36 votes backing Varadkar to continue as prime minister after his Fine Gael party slipped into third position in the election with 35 seats.
“The onus is on those who have made enormous promises of change to people during this election, who are entrusted with that mandate to bring a programme for government to the Dail for approval,” Varadkar said in parliament before departing to resign.
“If they cannot, they should say so and be upfront and honest about their failure, and the empty promises they made.”
Micheal Martin’s Fianna Fail party won the most seats in the election at 38, but suffered significant losses on their 2016 wins.
He received the backing of 41 lawmakers in Thursday’s contest.
Sinn Fein has been historically associated with the IRA which fought British rule in Northern Ireland for decades until the late 1990s, when a peace agreement largely ended violence that left more than 3,000 dead on all sides.
It won the popular vote with 24.5 percent of first preference ballots and picked up 14 seats by attracting voters with a campaign focusing on Ireland’s housing shortage and health crisis.
But its flagship policy on Irish unity is likely to be a top issue if it gains power.
It wants a referendum on uniting the two parts of the island within five years.
Talks
At least three parties will be needed to form a majority government in the Dail.
But with the three largest refusing to cooperate newly elected speaker Sean O Fearghail said the challenge of government formation remained “substantial”.
Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have both ruled out working with Sinn Fein, in part because of their association to past violence.
Varadkar told state broadcaster RTE on Monday he was prepared to go into opposition.
Meanwhile, Sinn Fein said Wednesday it was “intensifying” negotiations with smaller parties and independents seeking “a government for change”.
Talks may take some time and may result in a new election in which Sinn Fein could emerge as a favourite.
After a 2016 vote it took 70 days for a minority coalition government to form under Fine Gael, which was supported in a confidence and supply agreement by Fianna Fail.
Source: AFP