As British Prime Minister Theresa May scrambles to secure a Brexit extension at Wednesday’s crucial EU summit, what are the possible scenarios in the days to come?

Here are the possibilities:

No-deal Brexit on April 12

May is seeking a Brexit delay until June 30. MPs this week forced through legislation to force the prime minister to always seek an extension rather than leave the EU without a deal.

But the EU appears to be more keen on a longer “flextension” of around a year.

If no agreement is reached on Wednesday, the legal default is that Britain leaves the EU without a deal on Friday.

The EU has already granted one delay — the original deadline was March 29 — and EU leaders will ask May to explain what another postponement would achieve.

Economists warn a no-deal Brexit could generate economic shockwaves on both sides of the Channel and cause severe delays at border points, despite preparations to mitigate these risks.

Leave with changes to May’s deal

After failing three times to get her deal through parliament, May is currently locked in talks with the opposition Labour Party — who favour keeping closer ties with the EU — to try and break the impasse.

Labour is demanding Britain remain in a customs union, angering the rank-and-file in May’s Tory party.

If they agree a deal, Brexit could still happen before Britain has to take part in European Union elections on May 23.

The withdrawal agreement allows for a long transition period and time for trade ties to be negotiated.

The EU has ruled out any changes to it but has said it could speedily rewrite the political declaration — an accompanying document on future trade ties.

In a desperate gamble to get the deal over the line, May even told her MPs that she would resign before the start of full-blown trade negotiations with the EU if they backed it, but it still failed.

It seems unlikely that this option could happen, as May would have to agree to a softer Brexit that will placate members of the opposition, and give up on some of her staunchly-held positions. 

New plan, long Brexit delay

If no deal is agreed in the coming days, Britain will likely face a delay of up to a year, which would entail it holding European Parliament elections.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, has advised EU leaders that this longer extension should be at least until the end of 2019 and possibly much longer to allow for a proper change in Brexit strategy. If Britain finds an agreement before the end of the extension period, it would be able to leave the bloc earlier.

Under the “flextension”, Britain could leave the EU once it found a plan commanding domestic support, but a longer delay would open up options such as holding a general election, a leadership election to replace May or, perhaps, a second referendum.

A general election would reset parliament, and a clear outcome with a government majority could result in a much stronger administration.

But there is a danger it could result in the same situation as now with no one party holding a majority.

And for both major parties, finding a definitive manifesto position on Brexit that all their MPs can commit to could prove a challenge.

A long delay also opens up the possibility of another referendum.

The Labour Party is reported to be pushing for one in return for approving May’s deal.

A referendum could come in different flavours: either a second referendum that poses the same question to the British public on whether to leave the EU, or a “confirmatory referendum”, in which any deal struck would be put to a public confirmatory vote.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)

Britain’s House of Lords approved legislation on Monday that will give parliament the power to scrutinize and even change Prime Minister Theresa May’s request that the European Union agree to delay Brexit until June 30.

The legislation, which is being passed despite government opposition to it, will now return to the elected House of Commons for further consideration with a view to being finalized and turned into law later on Monday.

May has already asked Brussels to extend Britain’s EU membership until June 30 to allow talks with the opposition Labour Party in search of different exit plan – a last-ditch attempt to keep control after parliament rejected her own Brexit deal three times.

But lawmakers want additional legal guarantees against a “no-deal” exit happening on April 12 – the current exit day – and have crafted a law forcing ministers to consult with parliament on Tuesday (April 9) before she goes to Brussels.

That would give lawmakers the chance to make legally binding changes to May’s requested departure date during a debate scheduled to last 90 minutes on Tuesday (April 9).

Source: Presstv

British Prime Minister Theresa May will meet opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn on Wednesday to thrash out a Brexit compromise, a gamble that could finally see a European Union divorce deal agreed but also tear her party apart.

After her EU withdrawal deal was rejected three times by lawmakers, with parliament and her Conservative Party hopelessly divided over Brexit, May said on Tuesday she would reach out to Corbyn in a bid to break the impasse.

The United Kingdom was supposed to leave the EU last Friday, but three years after Britons backed leaving the bloc in a referendum, it is still unclear how, when or even if it will do so.

May has been unable to persuade a hardcore eurosceptic group of own lawmakers to back the divorce agreement she struck with the EU because they argued it did not provide a decisive break with Europe.

Her decision to seek another short delay to the current Brexit date of April 12 and turn instead for support from Labour, which wants to stay in a customs union with the EU, may make a “soft” Brexit more likely – one that keeps Britain’s economy closely aligned to the world’s biggest trading bloc.

Sterling rose on Wednesday over hopes for a “softer” Brexit, hitting its highest level since March 28.

“I personally think a customs union is highly undesirable,” Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told BBC radio. “It is regrettable that what we have been saying for several months now is coming to pass, but that is the remorseless logic of not backing the prime minister’s deal.”

May’s decision to approach Corbyn, a veteran socialist deeply disliked by many Conservatives and mocked by May herself as unfit to govern, still leaves many questions unanswered.

She did not spell out how long a delay to Brexit she wanted, merely saying it should be “as short as possible and which ends when we pass a deal”. She has repeatedly said she did not want an extension which would see Britain having to take part in elections to the European Parliament on May 23.

European Council President Donald Tusk said the bloc should be patient with Britain as May tries to find a way forward but it was not certain how European leaders would view her request.

As it stands, Britain will still leave the EU on April 12 without a deal, something many Conservative lawmakers would like to happen but a scenario businesses fear could wreak chaos and cause huge economic damage.

A cross-party group of British lawmakers will try on Wednesday try to rush through legislation in parliament to make such an outcome impossible.

What does Labour want?

Ahead of their talks, May and Corbyn said there would be no preconditions, but the leaders might well struggle to find a compromise position that can satisfy their own parties.

“This isn’t a blank cheque,” Barclay said.

The Conservatives have been divided over Europe for three decades, leading to the demise of three former prime ministers, David Cameron, John Major and Margaret Thatcher.

But Labour is far from united itself. Corbyn, who voted against joining the bloc in 1975, has previously set out a series of demands he wanted May to agree to before he would back her deal.

“Labour has put forward our proposals to ensure there is a customs union with the EU, access to vital markets and protections of our standards of consumer, environmental and workers’ rights,” he said on Tuesday.

However, many Labour supporters want the party to throw its weight behind a second referendum, while some Labour lawmakers, who represent areas that voted strongly to leave the EU, are fearful that they will be viewed as betraying such traditional voters if they do not strongly back Brexit.

It’s a trap

“I thought momentarily last night May’s ‘offer’ might be genuine,” said one pro-EU Labour lawmaker Bradshaw.

“Having heard Barclay…it is clearly a trap designed to try to get May’s terrible deal through, which some people have fallen for, but Labour mustn’t,” he wrote on Twitter.

It is also unclear where May’s last-ditch attempt to get a Brexit deal through will ultimately leave her minority government.

She had already promised to step down if her withdrawal agreement was passed by parliament, although that failed to persuade all her lawmakers to back her, and her overture to Corbyn has alienated some Conservatives still further.

“She needs to take a long look in the mirror and for the good of our country, our democracy and the Conservative Party she needs to go now,” lawmaker Andrew Bridgen told Sky News.

The Democratic Unionist Party, the small Northern Irish party on whose support May relies on to govern, were also wary of her plans.

“It remains to be seen if sub-contracting out the future of Brexit to Jeremy Corbyn, someone whom the Conservatives have demonized for four years, will end happily,” the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) said in a statement following May’s change of strategy.

(Source: Reuters)

British lawmakers have voted in favor of taking control of Brexit, undermining the government of Prime Minister Theresa May.

MPs voted 329 to 302 late on Monday to give the House of Commons more authority in handling the country’s possible exit from the EU.

They also rejected a personal plea by the British premier to stop the measure.

Brexit will not liberate UK from EU

Introduced by Conservative MP Oliver Letwin, the amendment would enable the MPs to bring forward their own Brexit motion and indicative votes for alternative Brexit paths Wednesday.

The move could bring about a soft Brexit customs union compromise, or even a second referendum on the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

According to a spokesperson for the Department for Exiting the European Union, it “upends the balance between our democratic institutions and sets a dangerous, unpredictable precedent for the future.”

UK Chancellor backs second Brexit referendum

“While it is now up to parliament to set out next steps in respect of this amendment, the government will continue to call for realism,” the spokesperson said, calling for MPs to choose options that were “deliverable in negotiations with the EU.”

Source: Presstv

European Union leaders have given Prime Minister Theresa May two weeks’ reprieve, until April 12, before Britain could lurch out of the EU if she fails to persuade lawmakers to back the withdrawal treaty she concluded with Brussels.

But after seven hours of summit brainstorming on Thursday, her 27 peers kept a host of options open, ramping up pressure on parliament to support May, giving Britain an outside chance of staying in for much longer – but also preparing to deflect blame for the chaos of any no-deal Brexit.

May had wanted to be able to delay Britain’s departure until June 30 to tie up legislative loose ends, and tried to reassure the EU that she could overturn two heavy defeats to clinch a last-gasp parliamentary ratification of her deal next week, so allowing a status-quo transition period to come into effect.

EU leaders had planned to endorse a shorter extension, to May 22, the eve of EU parliamentary elections, and leave any discussion of how to deal with May losing until next week. But diplomats said the prime minister singularly failed to reassure them she could win. Some sensed she did not believe it herself.

After May left the room, and with French President Emmanuel Macron pitching a surprise ultimatum for Britain to be out, deal or no deal, by May 7 — the eve of a summit on the EU’s post-Brexit future — the meeting plunged into frantic debate.

The outcome, with which May declared herself satisfied, was that the May 22 date will apply if parliament rallies behind her next week. If it does not, Britain will have until April 12 to offer a new plan or choose to quit without a treaty.

That date corresponds to the six weeks’ legal notice required for the EU election – which the Union would insist Britain hold on May 23 if it remains a member. If it does not hold the election, leaders said, the very last date Britain must leave would be June 30, before the new EU parliament convenes.

‘Options remain open’

Until April 12, said summit chair Donald Tusk, “all options will remain open and the cliff-edge date will be delayed”.

“The UK government will still have a choice between a deal, no deal, a long extension or revoking Article 50 (the withdrawal notice),” he told a news conference.

If Britain decides by April 12 against holding the EU election, it could then leave the EU without a deal at any time up to May 22.

May said she would not cancel Brexit or seek a long delay that would mean asking people to vote in EU elections three years after voting to leave. She insisted she could secure a deal next week.

Many in London doubt that, not least after she offended many lawmakers on Wednesday by publicly blaming them for the deadlock. She tried to soften those remarks somewhat on Thursday.

“What this decision tonight does is show the clear choice that is open to MPs,” May said. “I think the choice is clear for people.”

But May’s stated belief in her strategy of a third vote did not communicate itself to the summit table.

“It did not go well,” said one EU official familiar with the talks. “They basically realized that she doesn’t really believe it herself. They don’t want to be seen to be forcing the Brits out now. But they are looking for ways to end the agony.”

While some brinkmanship from Brussels may be part of a strategy to bounce reluctant British legislators into backing May, there is also a growing impatience that efforts to avoid a messy Brexit are bogging the EU down when it has other priorities, from a weakening economy to rising nationalism.

‘We have bought two weeks’

Macron has led the charge, calling for Britain, long a thorn in France’s plans for deeper European integration, to put up or shut up on Brexit.

“We have come up with a response that protects our interests,” he said. “It is up to the British to sort out their own internal contradictions. As for us, we don’t have any.”

May’s opponents at home range from hard-core Brexit supporters who say her deal gives the EU too much influence in Britain to others, inside and outside her own Conservative party, who would prefer to stay much closer to the EU or cancel Brexit.

Voicing the fears of business that a “no-deal” Brexit would hurt economies across the continent, German Chancellor Angela Merkel argued for caution, saying she would “work to the last minute” to avoid a disorderly departure.

By pushing the Brexit crunch toward Britain’s April 12 deadline to declare its decision on holding an EU election, EU diplomats said, the leaders also dodged potential blame if they had simply allowed Britain to crash out next Friday.

“That way, Merkel and the rest of the EU can avoid blame for forcing the British out,” one EU official said. “It will be up to the British themselves to say they are leaving with no deal.”

The basic problems of Brexit remain, however. Britain could still crash out without a transition, disrupting business and souring relations before the sides sit down to negotiate a trade pact and decide how to manage their politically sensitive land border in Ireland.

“Today was a long seven hours that bought us two weeks,” another EU diplomat said. “It just lets us say with a clear conscience that we didn’t throw them under the bus on March 29 … But before April 12, we will face the very same questions as now.”

(Source: Reuters)

British Prime Minister Theresa May has claimed to have secured ”legally binding changes” to the Brexit withdrawal agreement from the European Union prior to a key parliamentary vote on Tuesday.

British Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington notified Parliament of the development following negotiations between May and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in the French city Strasbourg earlier on Monday.

Lidington said the sides had agreed to a joint legally binding mechanism seeking to replace the so-called Irish backstop with alternative arrangements by December 2020.

“The EU cannot try to trap the UK in the backstop indefinitely, and that doing so would be an explicit breach of the legally binding commitments that both sides have agreed,” Lidington said.

The backstop clause of the Brexit deal is an insurance policy designed to prevent the return of border checks between British-ruled Northern Ireland and Ireland, which is an EU member.

Critics of May’s deal believe the backstop may trap the UK in the EU’s customs union indefinitely once the clause is triggered at the end of 2020.

Monday’s development comes as government sources had said earlier in the day that previous talks with the EU over the matter had reached a standstill. 

UK, EU Brexit talks

May also didn’t appear in parliament following an urgent question called by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn about progress in the Brexit talks. Corbyn accused May’s government of “delay”, saying that it is now “time for answers”.

May’s draft Brexit deal with the EU was rejected in parliament by a large majority on January 15. She has since vowed to work with the EU to find a solution to the backstop problem.

However, many expect the premier to finally fail to gain parliament support for her Brexit deal.

May has said that if a revised version of the deal is rejected in the House of Commons, she will have no option but to bring the UK out of the EU on March 29 in a disorderly manner.

A no-deal Brexit is speculated by many to entail serious political and economic repercussions for the country.

Presstv

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says he is “disappointed” to see lawmakers quit his party at a time that the country needs to stay united as it gets prepared to leave the European Union (EU).

Seven members of Britain’s main opposition party resigned on Monday, citing Labour’s refusal to effectively confront Tory Prime Minister Theresa May’s push to break the country away from the European Union and its failure to address what they called concerns about anti-Semitism.

“I am disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945,” he wrote on twitter, referring to the party’s performance during last year’s snap General Election.

In June 2018, May felt confident that she could increase her party’s parliamentary majority in an early vote and ultimately minimize the risks of strong opposition against her Brexit deal with the EU.

But her plans missed the mark by a huge margin as Labour, under Corbyn’s leadership, won a considerable number of new seats and took away the Conservative Party’s majority, forcing May to forge an embarrassing alliance with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to stay in power.

May’s unfortunate gamble came back to haunt her in early January, when a vast majority of MPs, including some Tory and DUP lawmakers, voted down her controversial draft Brexit deal with the EU.

“Labour won people over on a program for the many not the few – redistributing wealth and power, taking vital resources into public ownership, investing in every region and nation, and tackling climate change,” Corbyn reminded the resigned members of his party.

“The Tories are bungling Brexit while Labour has set out a unifying and credible alternative plan. When millions face the misery of Universal Credit, rising crime, homelessness and poverty, now more than ever is the time to bring people together to build a better future for us all,” he added.

Seven members of Britain’s opposition Labour party leave its ranks, citing, what they call, the party’s weak approach towards Brexit and its “failure” to root out “anti-Semitism.”

MPs Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger, Chris Leslie, Ann Coffey, Angela Smith, Gavin Shuker, and Mike Gapes announced their decision to split on Monday.

This was the biggest split from Labour since1981, when four senior members quit the party. “This has been a very difficult, painful but necessary decision,” Berger said at a press conference in London. Umunna has been promoting calls for a second referendum after one in 2016, which saw 52 percent of voters back leaving the EU.

Leslie claimed that evidence of Labour’s “betrayal” on Brexit was clear to see. MP John Healy warned that move only benefited May and took attention of her handling of Brexit. He told the quitting MPs that their decision weakened efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit, as May has often threatened to do.

Presstv