Context of the Cameroon Presidential Election and President-Elect Issa Tchiroma’s Ultimatum ⁰

Cameroon’s presidential election on October 12, 2025, was marred by allegations of fraud, voter suppression, and irregularities, as reported by opposition groups and international observers.

The Constitutional Council proclaimed incumbent President Paul Biya, aged 92, the winner with 53.7% of the vote on October 27, 2025, securing his eighth term since 1982.

Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, a former government minister who ran under the Front for the National Salvation of Cameroon (FSNC), prematurely declared himself the victor on October 14, 2025, calling on Biya to concede and rejecting the results as rigged.

This has triggered widespread protests, particularly in urban centers like Yaoundé and Douala, with security forces responding aggressively, resulting in at least 48 civilian deaths according to UN sources, alongside hundreds of arrests.

In a new development on Sunday, November 9, 2025, President-Elect Issa Tchiroma issued a 48-hour ultimatum to the Biya regime. Based on reports from opposition-aligned networks and social media amplification, this ultimatum demands the immediate release of all political prisoners and protesters detained during the pre- and post-election periods, whom Tchiroma’s team describes as “illegally held” victims of state repression. It also calls for an end to the crackdown on demonstrations and the opening of an independent probe into election fraud and protest-related killings.

The 48-hour window expires on November 11, 2025, and President-Elect Tchiroma has warned that failure to comply could lead to escalated civil disobedience, including nationwide strikes and “ghost towns” (business shutdowns).

Critical Analysis of the Ultimatum

President-Elect Tchiroma’s ultimatum represents a high-stakes gamble in Cameroon’s deepening political crisis, blending legitimate grievances with provocative escalation tactics. On one hand, it highlights systemic issues: Pre-election arrests targeted opposition figures and activists (e.g., over 200 detained in September 2025 per Human Rights Watch), while post-election sweeps have netted hundreds more protesters, often without due process, violating Cameroon’s constitution (which mandates charges within 48 hours of detention).

President-Elect Tchiroma frames these as “illegal detentions” to rally support, drawing parallels to the Anglophone crisis (ongoing since 2016, with separatist violence killing thousands) and positioning himself as a defender of democratic rights. This resonates amid youth frustration over Biya’s longevity—Cameroon risks becoming a “gerontocracy” without succession planning, as noted by think tanks like Chatham House.

Critically, however, the ultimatum risks backfiring. Tchiroma’s self-declaration as “president-elect” lacks institutional backing (the Constitutional Council rejected annulment petitions on October 22, 2025), making his demands appear unilateral and inflammatory.

The Biya regime, backed by the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Union (CPDM), has already banned protests as “illegal” and threatened to prosecute Tchiroma for incitement, labeling him a “flight risk.”

Issuing a timed demand without international mediation could provoke preemptive arrests or force, exacerbating ethnic divides (e.g., perceptions of “Beti favoritism” in security deployments).

Moreover, Tchiroma’s past as a government “spin doctor” under Biya undermines his credibility, potentially fracturing opposition unity—other candidates like Cabral Libii have already congratulated Biya.

In essence, while the ultimatum amplifies calls for accountability, it prioritizes confrontation over dialogue, ignoring the regime’s entrenched power (e.g., control over media and judiciary). This echoes past African election crises (e.g., Kenya 2007), where ultimatums fueled chaos without resolution.

Probable Consequences of Unrest and Post-Election Violence

The ultimatum arrives amid simmering violence: Protests have already caused 48+ deaths, property destruction, and internet blackouts, with hotspots in Francophone cities but spillover risks to Anglophone regions (where separatists have stayed quiet but could exploit chaos). If unmet by November 11, probable outcomes include:

1. Escalated Unrest (High Probability): Renewed protests, strikes, and “ghost towns” could paralyze Yaoundé and Douala, disrupting trade (Cameroon’s GDP relies on oil and agriculture exports). ACLED data projects a 30-50% surge in demonstrations by mid-November, with urban clashes mirroring Ivory Coast’s 2020 violence.

2. Increased Violence and Casualties (Medium-High Probability): Security forces’ “excessive force” (e.g., live ammo) has drawn UN condemnation; non-compliance could lead to 100+ additional deaths in weeks, per OHCHR estimates. Ethnic targeting risks “Balkanization,” reigniting Anglophone separatism and Boko Haram incursions in the north.

3. Political and Economic Fallout (Medium Probability): President-Elect Tchiroma’s arrest could splinter the opposition, prolonging Biya’s rule but eroding legitimacy—potentially triggering a coup or succession scramble post-Biya (health rumors persist). Economically, tourism halts and FDI drops (already uncertain per U.S. State Department), with inflation spiking 5-7% amid disruptions.

4. International Ramifications (Low-Medium Probability): Sustained violence could prompt targeted sanctions (e.g., U.S./EU asset freezes on officials) or AU mediation, but France’s historical ties may temper action. Long-term: Deepened refugee flows (500,000+ already displaced) and regional instability spilling into Nigeria/Chad.

International Reactions

U.S. State Department: No formal statement on results or the ultimatum as of November 9, 2025. However, the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert on October 27 warning of “protests involving destruction of property” post-results, urging U.S. citizens to avoid crowds and exercise vigilance amid “Cameroonian law enforcement” responses. This reflects caution over escalation but stops short of endorsing Biya or condemning fraud, consistent with U.S. focus on investment risks pre-election.

European Union (EU): The EU Spokesperson expressed “deep concern” on October 28 over the results proclamation and ensuing violence, noting fraud allegations and calling for “restraint, accountability, and impartial probes” into deaths. It urged protection of freedoms and an end to excessive force, emphasizing the upcoming EU-Africa summit. EU observers had pre-election flagged irregularities, positioning this as a push for democratic norms without direct interference.

United Nations (UN): UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated on October 28 that he “takes note” of the results but is “deeply concerned” by post-electoral violence and “excessive use of force,” reporting at least 48 killings. The OHCHR echoed this on October 30, decrying “alarming deaths” in protests and urging investigations, an end to hate speech, and leader restraint to prevent mass incitement. The UN frames this as a “key opportunity” for civic engagement lost to repression, tying it to broader human rights calls.

France: As Cameroon’s former colonial power and key ally, France issued a measured but critical response on October 29, expressing “particular concern” over the “violent repression” of protests and calling for authorities to “guarantee security and physical integrity” of citizens. It noted the results without congratulations to Biya (unusual for Paris) and highlighted risks to national unity. French media (e.g., RFI) amplified reports of crackdowns, signaling quiet pressure amid economic ties (e.g., TotalEnergies investments).

These reactions underscore global wariness as mitigation requires urgent dialogue via the AU or UN, but the regime’s intransigence suggests a volatile November ahead. Support for stability tempers outright condemnation, but violence has unified calls for de-escalation.

By: Dr. Larry AYAMBA