11, December 2019
As the campaign period draws to a close, there is every indication that the Tories are set to score a small victory and thus remain in power.
The latest opinion poll by YouGov (released yesterday evening) suggests that the Conservative party is set to secure a majority of around 28 seats in the House of Commons, enough to form a government.
However, YouGov was anxious to stress that the margin of error cannot rule out either a hung Parliament, or conversely, a larger Conservative majority.
The findings of YouGov are consistent with polling by multiple sources over the course of the campaign which has placed the Tories ahead of Labour by at least six percent.
Most significantly, an opinion poll for The Observer last Friday placed the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 15 points.
The Observer poll placed the Tories ahead with 46 percent of the vote, Labour in second place with 31 percent and the Liberal Democrats in third place with 13 percent of the vote.
But pollsters have warned politicians and pundits alike to be cautious as recent elections in the UK, notably the Brexit referendum of June 2016 and the general election of June 2017, delivered unexpected results.