19, January 2018
The military wheels are already in motion and according to Cameroon Intelligence Report sources ‘coup plans have been laid out for a complete annihilation of the Biya regime using the Southern Cameroons crises as a justification. Anti Biya movements are gaining support from a majority of the French Cameroun population, shown in an 8 region survey in this January. A Cameroon Concord News Group poll showed 92 per cent of interviewees favoured taking military action to end President Paul Biya’s rule.
Far North region
The Biya regime had used the current Vice Prime Minister Amadou Ali to control the politics of the Far North region over the last 35 years. Amadou Ali has stifled any resistance against Biya in the Far North with an iron fist. The dilemma for President Biya is that the patriarch of the Far North is no longer in charge. To be sure, his ancestors are calling and things are falling apart from Maroua via Mora to Fotokol.
The Bamilekes and the people of Foumban were adamant that Southern Cameroons and La Republique abide by Foumban resolutions. Although the Bamilekes made a mockery of Ambazonians at the very beginning of the crisis and called for more punitive measures from the Biya Francophone regime, ultimately the West region is backing a military action against the Biya regime. A coup they say will normalize relations with Southern Cameroons and business will start to flow again. Recently the Bamileke media houses have been clamoring for genuine dialogue.
Except for their CPDM leader Justice Minister Laurent Esso, the Sawas including those who militate with the ruling CPDM party have taken a stand in favour of a military action against the Biya regime. Some influential Sawa political elites who participated in our survey said any government installed in Yaoundé via a military coup will not last long. The Littoral soldiers in the army are among those who have killed hundreds of Southern Cameroonians ever since the Anglophone uprising started more than a year ago.
The Francophone Defence Minister Joseph Beti Assomo has ordered troops to remain committed and loyal to the 84 year old commander-in-chief President Paul Biya. Assomo and a cream of French Cameroun political elites from the South have affirmed support for La Republique-led war against Southern Cameroonians. But majorities of the people of the South have said Biya should be forced out of office and that the sons and daughters of the South region should be ‘militarily involved’.
The Yaoundé political elites are ‘approaching the point of a decision’ on participating in ending Biya’s 35 years in power. But many said that the Central region will wait until signs of collapse become imminent before they will make a commitment to join the anti Biya movement.
The North is historically suspicious of any anti Biya movement in Cameroon that does not speak of a possible replacement coming from Garoua. They have always sought to improve relations with the Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo regime and are showing support for the ruling CPDM crime syndicate. They privately back a military intervention to end Biya’s rule, but would reluctantly support the move.
While publicly the people are against a military action in Yaoundé, many of them have said that a coup action against Biya would be legitimate provided it has the support of all the sectors of the armed forces. Interestingly, the situation in the Central African Republic has greatly affected the East region, lessening the sympathy vote for Mr. Biya.
The traditional and spiritual leaders of the Adamawa region have been calling for a peaceful transfer of power to the younger generation. They appear to be preparing their indigents for a possible conflict in Yaoundé in the 2018 presidential elections and recently cautioned military leaders to be prepared for all eventualities. Our survey indicated the people of Adamawa oppose any coup in Yaoundé.
By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai