25, April 2023
World Bank Says Better Migration Policies Can Help Boost Prosperity in All Countries 0
Populations across the globe are aging at an unprecedented pace, making many countries increasingly reliant on migration to realize their long-term growth potential, according to a new report from the World Bank.
The World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, identifies this trend as a unique opportunity to make migration work better for economies and people. Wealthy countries as well as a growing number of middle-income countries—traditionally among the main sources of migrants—face diminishing populations, intensifying the global competition for workers and talent. Meanwhile, most low-income countries are expected to see rapid population growth, putting them under pressure to create more jobs for young people.
“Migration can be a powerful force for prosperity and development,” said World Bank Senior Managing Director Axel van Trotsenburg. “When it is managed properly, it provides benefits for all people — in origin and destination societies.”
In the coming decades, the share of working-age adults will drop sharply in many countries. Spain, with a population of 47 million, is projected to shrink by more than one third by 2100, with those above age 65 increasing from 20% to 39% of the population. Countries like Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Türkiye may soon need more foreign workers because their population is no longer growing.
Beyond this demographic shift, the forces driving migration are also changing, making cross-border movements more diverse and complex. Today, destination and origin countries span all income levels, with many countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, and the U.K. both sending and receiving migrants. The number of refugees nearly tripled over the last decade. Climate change threatens to fuel more migration. So far, most climate-driven movements were within countries, but about 40% of the world’s population—3.5 billion people—lives in places highly exposed to climate impacts.
Current approaches not only fail to maximize the potential development gains of migration, they also cause great suffering for people moving in distress. About 2.5% of the world’s population—184 million people, including 37 million refugees—now live outside their country of nationality. The largest share—43%—lives in developing countries.
The report underscores the urgency of managing migration better. The goal of policymakers should be to strengthen the match of migrants’ skills with the demand in destination societies, while protecting refugees and reducing the need for distressed movements. The report provides a framework for policymakers on how to do this.
“This World Development Report proposes a simple but powerful framework to aid the making of migration and refugee policy,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “It tells us when such policies can be made unilaterally by destination countries, when they are better made plurilaterally by destination, transit and origin countries, and when they must be considered a multilateral responsibility.”
Origin countries should make labor migration an explicit part of their development strategy. They should lower remittance costs, facilitate knowledge transfers from their diaspora, build skills that are in high demand globally so that citizens can get better jobs if they migrate, mitigate the adverse effects of “brain drain,” protect their nationals while abroad, and support them upon return.
Destination countries should encourage migration where the skills migrants bring are in high demand, facilitate their inclusion, and address social impacts that raise concerns among their citizens. They should let refugees move, get jobs, and access national services wherever they are available.
International cooperation is essential to make migration a strong force for development. Bilateral cooperation can strengthen the match of migrants’ skills with the needs of destination societies. Multilateral efforts are needed to share the costs of refugee-hosting and to address distressed migration. Voices that are underrepresented in the migration debate must be heard: this includes developing countries, the private sector and other stakeholders, and migrants and refugees themselves.
27, April 2023
World Bank says commodity prices to register sharpest drop since the pandemic 0
Global commodity prices are expected to decline this year at the fastest clip since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, clouding the growth prospects of almost two-thirds of developing economies that depend on commodity exports, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
The drop in prices, however, is expected to bring little relief to the nearly 350 million people across the world who face food insecurity. Although food prices are expected to fall by 8% in 2023, they will be at the second-highest level since 1975. Moreover, as of February this year, annual food price inflation is at 20% globally, the highest level over the past two decades.
“The surge in food and energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has largely passed due to slowing economic growth, a moderate winter, and reallocations in the commodity trade,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “But this is of little comfort to consumers in many countries. In real terms, food prices will remain at one of the highest levels of the past five decades. Governments should avoid trade restrictions and protect their poorest citizens using targeted income-support programs rather than price controls.”
Overall, commodity prices are expected to fall by 21% in 2023 relative to last year. Energy prices are projected to decline by 26% this year. The price of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars is expected to average $84 a barrel this year—down 16% from the 2022 average. European and U.S. natural-gas prices are forecast to halve between 2022 and 2023, while coal prices are expected to decrease 42% in 2023. Fertilizer prices are also projected to fall by 37% in 2023, which would mark the largest annual drop since 1974. However, fertilizer prices are still near their recent high last seen during the 2008-09 food crisis.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of Prospects Group, said: “The decline in commodity prices over the past year has helped reduce global headline inflation. However, central bankers need to remain vigilant as a wide range of factors, including weaker-than-expected oil supply, a more commodity-intensive recovery in China, an intensification of geopolitical tensions, or unfavorable weather conditions, could push prices higher and reignite inflationary pressures.”
Despite the large declines expected this year, prices of all major commodity groups will remain well above their 2015-2019 average levels. European natural gas prices will hover at almost three times the average in 2015-19. Energy and coal prices will also remain above the pre-pandemic average.
“Metal prices, which increased slightly early in the year, are expected to fall by 8% relative to last year, primarily because of weak global demand and improved supplies,” said Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Lead Economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “In the longer term, however, the energy transition could significantly lift the demand for some metals, notably lithium, copper, and nickel.”
A Special Focus section of the report evaluates the performance of a wide range of approaches used to forecast prices of seven industrial commodities (oil and six industrial metals). A key finding of the study is that futures prices, which are widely used for price forecasts, often lead to large forecast errors. Econometric models based on multiple independent variables tend to outperform other approaches as well as futures prices. The analysis suggests that augmenting model-based forecasting approaches—by incorporating the dynamics of commodity prices over time and controlling for other economic factors—enhances forecast accuracy.