Heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty are expected to drive global growth down this year to its slowest pace since 2008 outside of outright global recessions, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. The turmoil has resulted in growth forecasts being cut in nearly 70% of all economies—across all regions and income groups.

Global growth is projected to slow to 2.3 percent in 2025, nearly half a percentage point lower than the rate that had been expected at the start of the year. A global recession is not expected. Nevertheless, if forecasts for the next two years materialize, average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s. 

“Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone. said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “It has been advertising itself for more than a decade. Growth in developing economies has ratcheted down for three decades—from 6 percent annually in the 2000s to 5 percent in the 2010s—to less than 4 percent in the 2020s. That tracks the trajectory of growth in global trade, which has fallen from an average of 5 percent in the 2000s to about 4.5 percent in the 2010s—to less than 3 percent in the 2020s. Investment growth has also slowed, but debt has climbed to record levels.”

Growth is expected to slow in nearly 60 percent of all developing economies this year, averaging 3.8 percent in 2025 before edging up to an average of 3.9 percent over 2026 and 2027. That is more than a percentage point lower than the average of the 2010s. Low-income countries are expected to grow 5.3 percent this year—a downgrade of 0.4 percentage point from the forecast at the start of 2025. Tariff increases and tight labor markets are also exerting upward pressure on global inflation, which, at a projected average of 2.9 percent in 2025, remains above pre-pandemic levels.

Slowing growth will impede developing economies in their efforts to spur job creation, reduce extreme poverty, and close per capita income gaps with advanced economies. Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected to be 2.9 percent in 2025—1.1 percentage points below the average between 2000 and 2019. Assuming developing economies other than China are able to sustain an overall GDP growth of 4 percent—the rate forecast for 2027—it would take them about two decades to return to their pre-pandemic trajectory with respect to economic output.

Global growth could rebound faster than expected if major economies are able to mitigate trade tensions—which would reduce overall policy uncertainty and financial volatility. The analysis finds that if today’s trade disputes were resolved with agreements that halve tariffs relative to their levels in late May, global growth would be 0.2 percentage point stronger on average over the course of 2025 and 2026. 

“Emerging-market and developing economies reaped the rewards of trade integration but now find themselves on the frontlines of a global trade conflict,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “The smartest way to respond is to redouble efforts on integration with new partners, advance pro-growth reforms, and shore up fiscal resilience to weather the storm. With trade barriers rising and uncertainty mounting, renewed global dialogue and cooperation can chart a more stable and prosperous path forward.”

The report argues that in the face of rising trade barriers, developing economies should seek to liberalize more broadly by pursuing strategic trade and investment partnerships with other economies and diversifying trade—including through regional agreements. Given limited government resources and rising development needs, policymakers should focus on mobilizing domestic revenues, prioritizing fiscal spending for the most vulnerable households, and strengthening fiscal frameworks. 

 Finally, to accelerate economic growth, countries will need to improve business climates and promote productive employment by equipping workers with the necessary skills and creating the conditions for labor markets to efficiently match workers and firms. Global collaboration will be crucial in supporting the most vulnerable developing economies, including through multilateral interventions, concessional financing, and, for countries embroiled in active conflicts, emergency relief and support.

Source: World Bank

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Nigerian Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), arrived in Yaoundé on May 25, 2025. Her visit is part of the preparations for the organization’s 14th Ministerial Conference.

During her visit, the WTO Director-General is scheduled to meet with Cameroonian authorities and economic operators to outline the terms of reference for the upcoming WTO Ministerial Conference. The high-level event is slated to take place in Yaoundé from March 26 to 29, 2026.

The visit will also include the signing of an agreement between the WTO and Cameroon, detailing the responsibilities and cost-sharing arrangements for organizing the conference.

Cameroon was initially chosen to host the 13th WTO Conference in 2024 but subsequently withdrew from organizing it following “an arrangement” with the United Arab Emirates. Instead, Cameroon positioned itself to host the 2025 edition, a decision ratified during a December 19, 2022, meeting of WTO member countries in Geneva, Switzerland.

The WTO Ministerial Conference is a world-class event, typically drawing thousands of delegates and international trade stakeholders from the WTO’s 164 member countries. This major gathering serves as a forum for WTO members to discuss global trade policy and reforms. Cameroonian authorities have hailed the hosting of this event as a diplomatic victory for the nation.

Source: Business in Cameroon

China has set an economic growth target for this year of “around 5%” and pledged to pump billions of dollars into its ailing economy, which is now facing a trade war with the US.

Its leaders unveiled the plan as thousands of delegates attend the National People’s Congress, a rubber-stamp parliament, which passes decisions already made behind closed doors.

But the week-long gathering is closely watched for clues on Beijing’s policy changes – and this year is more significant than most.

President Xi Jinping had already been battling persistently low consumption, a property crisis and unemployment, before Donald Trump’s new 10% levy on Chinese imports came into effect on Tuesday.

Source: BBC

US President Donald Trump on Saturday signed an order to impose stiff tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, drawing swift retaliation and an undeniable sense of betrayal from the country’s North American neighbors as a trade war erupted among the longtime allies.

The Republican president posted on social media that the tariffs were necessary “to protect Americans,” pressing the three nations to do more to curb the manufacture and export of illicit fentanyl and for Canada and Mexico to reduce illegal immigration into the US.

The tariffs, if sustained, could cause inflation to significantly worsen, threatening the trust that many voters placed in Trump to lower the prices of groceries, gasoline, housing, autos and other goods as he promised. They also risked throwing the global economy and Trump’s political mandate into turmoil just two weeks into his second term.

Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place duties of 10% on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada. Energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at a 10% rate. Trump’s order includes a mechanism to escalate the rates charged by the US against retaliation by the other countries, raising the specter of an even more severe economic disruption.

“The actions taken today by the White House split us apart instead of bringing us together,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a somber tone as he announced that his country would put matching 25% tariffs on up to $155 billion in US imports, including alcohol and fruit.

He channeled the betrayal that many Canadians are feeling, reminding Americans that Canadian troops fought alongside them in Afghanistan and helped respond to myriad crises from wildfires in California to Hurricane Katrina.

“We were always there standing with you, grieving with you, the American people,” he said.

Mexico’s president also ordered retaliatory tariffs. China did not immediately respond to Trump’s action.

“We categorically reject the White House’s slander that the Mexican government has alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention of meddling in our territory,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote in a post on X while saying she had instructed her economy secretary to implement a response that includes retaliatory tariffs and other measures in defense of Mexico’s interests.

“If the United States government and its agencies wanted to address the serious fentanyl consumption in their country, they could fight the sale of drugs on the streets of their major cities, which they don’t do and the laundering of money that this illegal activity generates that has done so much harm to its population.”

Source: France 24

Developing economies—which fuel 60 percent of global growth—are projected to finish the first quarter of the 21st century with the weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Even as the global economy stabilizes in the next two years, developing economies are expected to make slower progress in catching up with the income levels of advanced economies. 

The global economy is projected to expand by 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026, the same pace as in 2024, as inflation and interest rates decline gradually. Growth in developing economies is also expected to hold steady at about 4% over the next two years. This, however, would be a weaker performance than before the pandemic—and insufficient to foster the progress necessary to alleviate poverty and achieve wider development goals. 

The World Bank’s analysis is its first systematic assessment of the performance of developing economies in the first quarter of the 21st century. It finds that, during the first decade, developing economies grew at the fastest clip since the 1970s. Yet progress ebbed after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. Global economic integration faltered: as a share of GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into developing economies are at about half the level of the early 2000s. New global trade restrictions in 2024 were five times the 2010-19 average. As a result, overall economic growth dropped—from 5.9% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s to 3.5% in the 2020s. Since 2014, with the exception of China and India, the average per capita growth rates of income in developing economies have been half a percentage point lower than that in wealthy economies, widening the rich-poor gap.

“The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Most of the forces that once aided their rise have dissipated. In their place have come daunting headwinds: high debt burdens, weak investment and productivity growth, and the rising costs of climate change. In the coming years, developing economies will need a new playbook that emphasizes domestic reforms to quicken private investment, deepen trade relations, and promote more efficient use of capital, talent and energy.”

Developing economies are more important for the global economy than they were at the start of the century. They account for about 45% of global GDP, up from 25% in 2000. Their interdependence has also grown: more than 40% of their goods exports go to other developing economies, double the share in 2000. Developing economies have also become an important source of global capital flows, remittances, and development assistance to other developing economies: between 2019 and 2023, they accounted for 40% of global remittances—up from 30% in the first decade of the century.

As a result, these economies now have greater sway on growth and development outcomes in other developing economies. For example, an increase of 1 percentage point in the GDP growth of the three largest developing economies—China, India, and Brazil—tends to result in a cumulative GDP boost of nearly 2% in other developing economies after three years. Those effects, however, are only about half the effect of growth in the three biggest economies: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The welfare of developing economies, in short, is still strongly tied to growth in the big three advanced economies.

“In a world shaped by policy uncertainty and trade tensions, developing economies will need bold and far-reaching policies to seize untapped opportunities for cross-border cooperation,” said M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “A good start would be to pursue strategic trade and investment partnerships with the rapidly expanding markets of other developing nations. Modernizing transportation infrastructure and standardizing customs processes are critical steps to cut unnecessary expenses and foster greater trade efficiency. Finally, sound macroeconomic policies at home will fortify their capacity to navigate the uncertainties of the global outlook.”

Over the next two years, developing economies could face serious headwinds, the report notes. High global policy uncertainty could undercut investor confidence and constrain financing flows. Rising trade tensions could reduce global growth. Persistent inflation could delay expected cuts in interest rates. Yet the global economy could also do better than expected—especially if its largest engines, the United States and China, manage to gain steam. In China, additional stimulus measures could boost demand. In the United States, robust household spending could result in stronger-than-expected growth, with beneficial effects for developing economies.

The report argues that developing economies have many options to improve their growth prospects, despite the headwinds. With the right policies, these economies can even transform some challenges into significant opportunities. Addressing infrastructure needs, speeding up the climate transition, and improving human capital can improve growth prospects while also helping to achieve climate and development goals. All countries, meanwhile, should work together to strengthen global trade governance, with the support of multilateral institutions.

Source: World Bank

Wall Street’s main indexes dropped on Wednesday, as continued escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions worried investors, while megacap Nvidia lost ground ahead of quarterly results.

Stocks dipped after a report Ukraine fired long-range British Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory. That followed Ukraine launching US-made ATACMS missiles into Russia on Tuesday, and Russia announcing it had lowered the threshold for nuclear action.

Wall Street’s “fear gauge” jumped to 18.79 before easing slightly, but it was still trading at its highest since the November 5 US presidential election.

“There’s been more missiles firing between Ukraine and Russia, and the market doesn’t know what to think of that … tensions are escalating, not deescalating and that’s why you’re seeing the selloff in the markets,” said Dennis Dick, trader at Triple D Trading.

Meanwhile, AI leader Nvidia, which is scheduled to report results after the bell, dropped 0.8%, reversing modest premarket gains. The index heavyweight dragged the Information Technology sector as well as the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Target plunged 20.7% after the retailer forecast holiday-quarter comparable sales and profit below Wall Street expectations following a third-quarter estimate miss.

It dragged down other retailers such as Dollar Tree and Dollar General which fell 3.4% and 4.9%, respectively.

Among other growth stocks, Tesla lost 1.8% and Amazon.com shed 1.7%.

The consumer discretionary and consumer staples indexes lost 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.

But the spotlight remained on Nvidia, which has nearly tripled in value this year, accounting for about 20% of the S&P 500’s returns over the last 12 months, according to BofA Global Research.

“While expectations for Nvidia are high heading into its latest earnings report, we expect the company to report another strong quarter and live up to these high expectations,” said Clark Bellin, chief investment officer, Bellwether Wealth.

At 10:55 a.m. the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 40.15 points, or 0.09%, to 43,228.79, the S&P 500 lost 30.00 points, or 0.51%, to 5,886.98 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 123.86 points, or 0.65%, to 18,863.61.

Cryptocurrency stocks ticked higher as bitcoin jumped above $94,000, with MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings up 14.6% and 13%, respectively.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials including Michelle Bowman and Susan Collins are expected through the day.

Traders have increased their bets on the US central bank leaving interest rates unchanged at its December meeting in the wake of strong economic data and signs of persistent inflation. They see a 44.5% chance of a pause next month, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said recent data suggests that more cuts are likely appropriate as disinflation is expected to continue.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.85-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and nine new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 107 new lows.

Source: Reuters

Despite their high potential to advance global prosperity, one-half of the world’s 75 most vulnerable countries are facing a widening income gap with the wealthiest economies for the first time in this century, a new World Bank report has found. Taking full advantage of their younger populations, their rich natural resources, and their abundant solar-energy potential can help them overcome the setback.

The report, The Great Reversal: Prospects, Risks, and Policies in International Development Association Countries, offers the first comprehensive look at the opportunities and risks confronting the 75 countries eligible for grants and zero to low-interest loans from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA). These countries are home to a quarter of humanity—1.9 billion people. At a time when populations are aging nearly everywhere else, IDA countries will enjoy a growing share of young workers through 2070—a huge potential “demographic dividend.” These countries are also rich in natural resources, enjoy high potential for solar-energy generation, and boast a large reservoir of mineral deposits that could be crucial for the world’s transition to clean energy.

Yet a historic reversal is underway for them. Over 2020-24, average per capita incomes in half of IDA countries—the largest share since the start of this century—have been growing more slowly than those of wealthy economies. This is widening the income gap between these two groups of countries. One out of three IDA countries is poorer, on average, than it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic. The extreme-poverty rate is more than eight times the average in the rest of the world: one in four people in IDA countries struggles on less than $2.15 a day. These countries now account for 90 percent of all people facing hunger or malnutrition. Half of these countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Still, except for the World Bank Group and other multilateral development donors, foreign lenders—private as well as government creditors—have been backing away from them.

“The world cannot afford to turn its back on IDA countries,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “The welfare of these countries has always been crucial to the long-term outlook for global prosperity. Three of the world’s economic powerhouses today—China, India, and South Korea—were all once IDA borrowers. All three prospered in ways that whittled down extreme poverty and raised living standards. With help from abroad, today’s batch of IDA countries has the potential to do the same.”

More than half of all IDA countries—39 in all—are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fourteen of them—mainly small island states—are in East Asia, and eight are in Latin America and the Caribbean. In South Asia, all countries except for India are IDA countries. Thirty-one IDA countries have per capita incomes of less than $1,315 a year. Thirty-three are fragile and conflict-affected states.

IDA countries share similar opportunities. The “demographic dividend”—a deep and growing reserve of young workers—is one of them. Abundant natural resources is another. These countries account for about 20 percent of global production of tin, copper, and gold. In addition, some IDA countries possess critical mineral deposits essential for the global energy transition. Because of their abundant sunshine, most IDA countries are well situated to take advantage of solar energy. On average, their long-term daily solar-electricity generation potential is among the highest in the world.

This potential, however, comes with risks that must be managed. To reap the demographic dividend, IDA governments will need to undertake policies to improve education and health outcomes and make sure that jobs are available for the rising number of young people who will enter the workforce in the coming decades. To seize the full potential of their natural-resource wealth, IDA countries will need to improve policy frameworks and build stronger institutions capable of better economic management. All of this will require ambitious domestic policy reforms—and significant financial support from the international community.

“IDA countries have incredible potential to deliver strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth. Realizing this potential will require them to implement an ambitious set of policies centered on boosting investment,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “This means improving fiscal, monetary, and financial policy frameworks and advancing an array of structural reforms to strengthen institutions and enhance human capital.”

IDA countries today have large investment needs. In the poorest of them, closing existing development and infrastructure gaps and building resilience to climate change will require investment that amounts to nearly 10 percent of GDP. The costs of climate disasters have doubled in IDA countries over the past decade: Economic losses from natural disasters average 1.3% of GDP a year—four times the average of other emerging market and developing economies. Such needs will require IDA countries to generate sustained investment booms—the type that boosts productivity and incomes and reduces poverty. Historically, such investment booms have often been sparked by a comprehensive package of policy measures—to bolster fiscal and monetary frameworks, ramp up cross-border trade and financial flows, and improve the quality of institutions. Such reforms are never easy, the report notes. They need careful sequencing and implementation. But previous IDA countries have shown they are possible.

IDA countries will need significant international financial support to make progress and lower the risk of “protracted stagnation,” the report notes. Stronger cooperation on global policy issues—including fighting climate change, facilitating more timely and effective debt restructurings, and supporting cross-border trade and investment—will also be crucial to help IDA countries avert a lost decade in development.

Sam Bankman-Fried – also known as SBF – has been sentenced to 25 years in prison for stealing billions of dollars from customers of his cryptocurrency exchange FTX

After a two hour hearing the judge, Lewis Kaplan, said Bankman-Fried knew what he was doing was criminal and regretted making a bad bet about the likelihood of being caught

“There are a lot of mistakes that I made,” Bankman-Fried told the court, but maintained FTX had the ability to repay customers when it imploded

Prosecutors say Bankman-Fried took more than $10bn (£7.9bn) from unsuspecting customers in “one of the biggest financial frauds” in US history

FTX was valued at $32bn before it went bankrupt in 2022 and SBF crafted a public image that drew in celebrities, politicians and business titans.

Source: BBC

An oil tanker is on fire in the Gulf of Aden, its operator says, after Houthis said they hit it with a missile.

The movement said it had targeted the Marlin Luanda on Friday evening.

Operator Trafigura told the BBC the strike caused a fire in one of the ship’s cargo tanks and firefighting equipment was being used to contain it.

US officials told the BBC’s US partner CBS the tanker was hit by an anti-ship ballistic missile and a naval ship was responding to its distress signal.

There were no injuries reported, the US officials said.

It is the latest attack on commercial shipping by the Houthis in and around the Red Sea.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said that the incident happened 60 nautical miles south-east of Aden.

The UKMTO said warships were in attendance and supporting the vessel, adding all crew had been reported safe.

It warned other vessels to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity.

Trafigura confirmed the vessel had been struck and military ships were on their way to provide assistance.

“Firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to suppress and control the fire caused in one cargo tank on the starboard side,” a Trafigura spokesperson said.

Source: BBC