While Biya’s re-election in October seems all but inevitable, his prolonged stay in power – without meaningful dialogue or efforts toward a peaceful resolution – signals continued suffering and a deepening crisis for the Anglophone population.

At 92, Paul Biya, Africa’s second-longest-serving leader, announced in January that he would seek his eighth presidential term in the October elections, ending months of speculation over his candidacy.

In Anglophone Cameroon – the Northwest and Southwest regions – years of alleged electoral fraud, a deadly and protracted conflict and political exclusion have eroded faith in democratic participation. For the millions living there, daily life has become a constant struggle against fear, displacement and uncertainty.

Anglophone Cameroon has been engulfed in a deadly conflict for years, characterised by violence and deepening mistrust between separatist groups and the central government, which many in the region accuse of systemic human rights violations.

In search of recruits

On some nights in Tiko, a coastal town in Cameroon’s troubled Southwest region, 39-year-old Mbuh Margaret* stays awake while her two young daughters, both under 12, sleep nearby. Her eyes remain fixed on the door, her mind racing with fear of what might come.

“I don’t think I’ll ever recover,” she says, still haunted by the traumatic ordeal she endured in 2018 – an event that continues to cast a long shadow over her life.

That year, just weeks before the presidential election, separatist fighters stormed her home in a remote part of Bamenda, the Anglophone capital of Cameroon’s Northwest region. They arrived at midnight, demanding that her 43-year-old husband join their movement.

“They wanted more manpower against the government forces and were recruiting by any means necessary,” she recalls.

When he refused, they shot him in the head.

“I didn’t believe what I saw; everything happened in a second,” Margaret recalls.

Two days later, fearing for their lives, she fled with her daughters to Tiko, her late husband’s hometown. Now working as a farm labourer in a nearby village, she earns between CFA2,500 ($4) and CFA7,500 ($12) a week – barely enough to survive. Her meagre income forces her to borrow constantly, and the debts continue to mount.

Call for election boycott

Biya’s announcement of his candidacy for the October elections has reignited calls from separatist groups to boycott the vote in the Anglophone regions. Despite ongoing government crackdowns, separatist leaders argue that participating would only serve to legitimise Biya’s decades-long rule over their communities.

For Margaret and many others in the Anglophone regions, already enduring nearly nine years of conflict between separatist fighters and government forces, the election season brings renewed fear and uncertainty.

“In 2018, separatist groups first warned us to stay away from the election, using threats and violence to enforce compliance,” Margaret tells The Africa Report.

“At night, whenever I think about what led to my husband’s death, and how easily it could happen again, I lose my peace,” she says.

More than 6,000 killed

In October 2016, civil unrest broke out in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions when lawyers and teachers led protests against the marginalisation of English-speaking Cameroonians. The Francophone-led government in Yaoundé responded with force, shutting down internet services and branding the demonstrations a “terror procession”.

By 2017, what began as peaceful protests had spiralled into a full-scale separatist rebellion. Rebel leaders declared the independence of the self-styled Federal Republic of Ambazonia, claiming the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions. Though these areas make up just 3% of Cameroon’s territory, they are home to nearly 20% of its population.

As the conflict escalated, the government responded with a brutal crackdown, arresting thousands and opening fire on protesters. President Biya deployed the elite Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR), a unit repeatedly accused of severe human rights abuses, to crush the separatist movement.

Nearly a decade later, the war drags on. More than 6,000 people have been killed, thousands remain missing, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced – many of them children struggling with malnutrition and disease in overcrowded camps or remote villages.

“It’s an ugly situation, and no one is safe,” says Beatrice*, 45, a resident of Kumba in the Southwest region. She lost her husband and three sons in a fire during a clash between separatists and government forces. She was the only one who survived.

‘We lost everything’

From Northwest’s Kumbo and Bamenda to Mamfe and Buea in the Southwest region, the scars of war are visible throughout Anglophone Cameroon. Bullet-riddled homes and abandoned buildings, left in ruins, have become common sights in communities where violence is now part of daily life.

Entire villages lie empty, silent evidence of what many describe as a partial genocide and a host of underreported war crimes. In these conflict-affected areas, children are among the most vulnerable. Many are forced into harsh agricultural labour or degrading work just to help their families survive.

“In late 2019, as government soldiers and separatist fighters exchanged gunfire in our village in Buea, my mother’s grocery shop was looted and set on fire,” says Peter*, a 15-year-old fisherman’s assistant in Limbe, a coastal town in the Southwest region. “I remember how we lost everything and became even poorer that night.”

Peter now earns between CFA15,000 ($24) and CFA24,000 ($38) a week, most of which goes toward supporting his family of five. According to UNICEF, nearly 500,000 children – including Peter and his childhood friends – were out of school across Cameroon’s Anglophone regions in 2024, as the conflict continues to disrupt education and displace communities.

As the crisis grinds on, Cameroon’s healthcare infrastructure continues to deteriorate, particularly in the English-speaking regions where medical facilities under Yaoundé’s control are often targeted in the conflict. The violence has forced many healthcare workers to flee, leaving residents to rely on private or religious clinics that are frequently overpriced, understaffed or ill-equipped.

Joy Francis*, a 19-year-old from a small village near Bamenda, tells The Africa Report that menstrual hygiene has become an overlooked emergency. Menstrual pads have either become unaffordable or completely unavailable, forcing many girls to use old rags or even thick leaves.

It’s a similar situation for Margaret, whose 12-year-old daughter also relies on scraps of old cotton during her period.

“It is disgusting and cruel for Paul Biya, a man who calls himself the father of the nation, to ignore the plight of Anglophone Cameroonians,” says a Douala-based political analyst, speaking anonymously due to a media ban on openly criticising the president.

“Without genuine political reform,” he warns, “we may be heading toward deeper anarchy in the English-speaking regions.”

Wave of violence

Ahead of the 2018 presidential election, Biya declared that Cameroon’s national unity was non-negotiable. Yet, both during his campaign and after securing re-election, he publicly acknowledged the severity of the Anglophone crisis, pledging to pursue a peaceful resolution. In 2019, he launched the Major National Dialogue aimed at addressing the grievances of the separatist movement.

However, separatist leaders and political critics dismissed the initiative as inadequate and unrealistic, arguing that it excluded key secessionist figures and failed to address fundamental demands, such as power-sharing or the prospect of independence.

“The crisis worsened, but Biya was not interested in recognising the separatist movement or their demands,” says a Yaoundé-based political analyst. “The peace plans were largely a political manoeuvre to convince the international community that the Anglophone unrest was merely a domestic issue that could be easily resolved.”

In reality, critics argue, little changed. Separatist leaders continued to be arrested and allegedly tortured, and before long, the dialogue collapsed – triggering yet another wave of violence and deepening the crisis.

Requests for comment from both the Cameroonian ministry of defence and the prime minister’s office went unanswered.

Possibility of Biya election loss?

Despite heavy media censorship in Yaoundé and state-controlled praise of Biya, French-speaking Cameroonians still discuss the future of their country, politics and economic policies in markets, offices and homes.

However, “when Cameroonians speak about their country, regime change rarely comes up”, says a senior lecturer and political analyst in Yaoundé. He explains that beyond Biya’s deep-rooted ties to France and the West, his regime’s longevity is due in part to its ability to suppress dissent and avoid the mistakes that toppled other long-serving leaders. “From the Arab Spring to the rise of anti-French sentiment, Biya seems to learn from leadership gaps that have ended other regimes,” he says.

English-speaking Cameroonians seldom debate the possibility of Biya losing an election – because survival, not politics, is their most pressing concern.

“It’s about our lives first,” says Margaret. “We don’t know if we’ll be even more forgotten by our countrymen – and the world.”

As external funding dries up, separatist fighters have increasingly turned on the very communities they claim to defend, looting homes, kidnapping civilians and extorting so-called “liberation taxes”. Women are often the most vulnerable. “I pay these taxes,” Margaret says. “Many women have been raped on the farms for failing to pay.”

Though some separatist factions have allowed schools to reopen, fear still lingers. For Margaret, the risk is too great. “Until my daughters’ safety is assured, they stay at home,” she says. “It’s better they lose their education than their lives.”

Culled from The Africa Report

Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982, presenting his long tenure as a guarantor of stability. Yet Marie-Emmanuelle Pommerolle, an expert on Cameroon, argues precisely the opposite: Biya’s prolonged grip on power has generated crises.

The regime’s entrenched elites resist meaningful reform, while economic stagnation and unresolved regional tensions, especially in the Anglophone regions, threaten national unity.

Who are the main contenders within Biya’s ruling circle?

Two key figures dominate the speculation. Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, the powerful secretary-general of the presidency, is positioning himself strategically by campaigning on Biya’s behalf, often overshadowing the prime minister. Franck Biya, the president’s son, is also rumoured to be a potential successor, though he remains politically discreet.

Meanwhile, Joseph Dion Ngute, Cameroon’s prime minister, seeks to assert his political relevance independently, notably leveraging economic events to strengthen his position against Ngoh Ngoh’s dominance.

What does the opposition offer?

The opposition remains divided but has notable leaders. Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (CRM), who challenged Biya significantly in 2018, is again leading a broad coalition. Kamto, popular yet controversial, symbolises the hopes of many seeking change.

Joshua Osih of the Social Democratic Front (SDF) seeks a moderate path, targeting younger, urban voters. Yet his strategy risks alienating the grassroots supporters who once formed the party’s backbone.

Cabral Libii, younger and media-savvy, appeals to disillusioned youth, while veteran Garga Haman Adji is viewed with suspicion, sometimes accused of collaborating with Biya’s regime to dilute opposition effectiveness.

Could election integrity affect succession?

Enow Abrams Egbe, head of Elections Cameroon (Elecam), faces accusations of partiality. Elecam’s perceived lack of independence, highlighted by opposition complaints about electoral transparency, risks undermining the legitimacy of any future election.

What role might religious institutions play?

The Catholic Church, influential in Cameroonian politics, presents mixed signals. Archbishop Jean Mbarga of Yaoundé openly supports Biya, potentially aiding a smooth succession aligned with the current regime. However, other prominent bishops, including Samuel Kleda, criticise Biya’s extended tenure, reflecting broader societal divisions that might intensify post-Biya.

Could diaspora activists shape Cameroon’s future?

The diaspora-based Brigade Anti-Sardinards (BAS), critical of Biya’s government, remains a vocal presence abroad, notably staging provocative protests. While officially dismissed by Cameroon’s authorities, their ability to influence public discourse within Cameroon and internationally makes them an unpredictable force.

Is France’s influence waning?

Historically supportive, France’s relationship with Biya’s regime faces growing scrutiny amid rising anti-French sentiment. Younger Cameroonians increasingly question France’s paternalistic approach, demanding greater national autonomy

Whether from Biya’s camp or opposition, future leaders must navigate this dynamic.

Will the Anglophone crisis derail succession?

The ongoing conflict in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions, driven by deep-rooted grievances, has severely tested national unity. A successor who fails to address Anglophone marginalisation risks escalating tensions further, potentially destabilising the country.

Cameroon faces significant uncertainty as it approaches the post-Biya era. The country’s stability hinges on whether a genuine political transition, inclusive governance and credible elections can finally emerge from beneath the shadow of Africa’s longest-serving leader.

Culled from The Africa Report

Cameroon’s political system has become a shameful cycle of stagnation, corruption, and power entrenchment, with 91-year-old Niat Njifenji Marcel and 85-year-old Cavaye Yeguie Djibril once again reappointed to lead the Senate and National Assembly.

Adding to this political stranglehold, 92-year-old Paul Biya, who has ruled Cameroon for over four decades, is likely eyeing yet another re-election, further tightening his grip on a nation that desperately needs new leadership.

This is no longer just a failure of governance; it is an outright hijacking of the country’s future.

Cameroon is being held hostage by a ruling elite that refuses to let go of power, while the younger generation is sidelined, left without opportunities or a voice in shaping their own destiny.

It has come to a critical point: Cameroonians, especially the youth, must rise up and take back their country. If action is not taken now, the nation will remain trapped in an endless cycle of aging rulers clinging to power, while the people suffer from economic hardship, unemployment, and political repression.

The time for waiting is over. If the people do not reclaim their future, they will remain prisoners of this outdated and self-serving system for decades to come.

Source: The Sierra Leone Telegraph

As presidential and parliamentary elections are fast approaching, the various political parties, including the ruling party, are fine-tuning their strategies to make themselves more attractive.

The ruling CPDM, which has long lost its attractiveness, now thinks it’s time to build a new image which will make it a force to reckon with the youthful electorate which has been calling for change in Cameroon and this will surely start with a cabinet shake-up which will include more youthful and credible faces.

Years of corruption and economic stagnation in Cameroon have hurt the Biya government in a big and bad way, especially as the country’s unemployment issue has now become a national pandemic.

However, Mr. Biya, who has been resting in his native Mvomeka’a for some time now, is slowly refining his plans for a new and youthful cabinet.

According to a CPDM insider, a cabinet reshuffle is on the horizon; with rumors having it that Oswald Baboke would replace Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh as the Secretary General at the Presidency of the Republic (SGPR).

Ngoh Ngoh has been playing a key political role in the current political dispensation. He has been doing the president’s bidding and it is even reported that he has been doing Chantal Biya’s dirty jobs in a brutal succession battle that will leave many bruised and bowed.

Mr. Biya recognizes Ngoh Ngoh’s loyalty to him and his wife, but his constant presence at the Presidency during an election year could be a liability to the ruling CPDM which has been struggling with image-related issues.

The CPDM is not a popular party and many Cameroonians hold that once Biya leaves the political scene, the party will dissolve as it is held responsible for all the issues which have dogged the nation for 42 years.

Sources close to President Biya have informed the Cameroon Concord News that Ngoh Ngoh will replace Lejeune Mbella Mbella who is neither young nor effective at the Ministry of Foreign affairs as a means of taking him away from Mr. Biya’s inner circle.

Lejeune Mbella Mbella, for his part, is staring down the barrel of retirement as he is really tired and retirement-worthy.

Meanwhile Louis Paul Motaze who has been in the spotlight recently for all the wrong reasons could be heading to the Kondengui Maximum Security Prison as the Sword of Damocles hangs over his head. It is rumored that his girlfriend is involved in some misappropriation scandals within the Ministry of Finance, especially the one involving Amougou Belinga.

According to the same CPDM sources, Ketcha Courtes also known as “Il y avait quoi avant” will be elbowed out of the Ministry of Social Affairs. Members of Biya’s inner circle are looking for someone from the Grand North to replace Courtes.

The Grand North is disappointed with the Biya regime which it has supported for decades. The north currently has no good road infrastructure and the economic crisis, which has hit the country like lightning, has caused many northerners to doubt Mr. Biya’s serious and sincerity in developing the Grand North which is the home of the country’s first president.

The sources also reported that Abba Sadou would head a ministry, probably the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, as a means of demonstrating to northerners that President Biya takes them seriously.

Like Lejeune Mbella Mbella, the oldest minister in service, Mbarga Nguele, will leave the government to deal with his old age related issues. Also,  Ayang Luc who has been the president of the Economic and Social Council for decades will be replaced by Beti Assomo who is grappling with serious health issues.

The greatest news will be the creation of the post of  Vice-President and this implies Biya will name his successor. The post of Prime Minister will be abolished to avoid duplication and conflicts.

But Biya’s current focus is on bringing new blood to the National Assembly and the Senate. The ruling CPDM is looking to bring in youthful faces to these legislative bodies and sources close to the Central Committee of the CPDM have reported that the President is insisting on having some members of the country’s Diaspora into the political landscape as a way of reducing tensions between the government and the Diaspora.

The sources said that many law-makers who are above 80 years might not be brought back to the National Assembly and the Senate. The president, it is said, is dissatisfied with many members of the legislative bodies as the grassroots are grumbling that their fate has not changed over the last ten years.

The sources added that there were still many serious issues to be dealt with, suggesting that the vice-president should be an Anglophone from the moderate Southwest region which believes in a united and indivisible Cameroon; a suggestion which does not sit well with Cameroon’s French-speaking politicians.

There is a lot of pressure in Yaoundé as many ministers are aware that the president is preparing a new cabinet. The usual lobbying has been intensified and the below-the-belt punches have increased.

Cameroon is at the crossroads and if prompt and correct decisions are not made, the country, which is slowly sliding into chaos, could become another failed state in the months ahead.

President Biya is aware of his mortality and he understands that at 92, anything can happen. 92 years is his age on paper and nobody knows his real age. When he was born, there were no birth registries in Cameroon and from the way he looks, it is obvious that he is older than 92 years.

With a lot of pressure coming from the West and the clergy, Biya understands that it is time to get a successor before things fall apart. He is old and his mental capacity has been diminished by age and the burden of responsibility and guilt he has carried for decades. There is no better time than now for him to do the right thing.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The country, at the crossroads of Central and West Africa, faces uncertainty across political, social, economic, and security environments. This is happening at a time when the United States’ global competitors are opportunistically seeking engagement in Cameroon and the region, boxing out the United States as it looks to protect its interests there.

Paul Biya, Cameroon’s ninety-two-year-old leader, has been in power as president since 1982, and from 1975 to 1982, he was the prime minister. Currently rumored to be in poor health, Biya is not seen frequently in public, has little direct contact with US or other foreign officials, and remains relatively recluse. The country faces economic and security challenges despite having a resilient, young population and a capable (yet stretched) military—one with significant experience gained from navigating armed conflict (at home and abroad); counter-piracy, counterterrorism, and peacekeeping, campaigns; and efforts to contain an insurgency in the English-speaking regions of the country.

Biya’s age and the country’s elections, due to be held in October 2025, bring into question what comes next for Cameroon. Navigating the aftermath of Biya’s presidency will require a coordinated and elevated strategic approach by senior US officials. If crisis breaks out in Cameroon, US missteps could play a part in thrusting the country and the region into significant upheaval and instability.

On paper, the president of Cameroon’s Senate, Marcel Niat Njifenji (who was appointed by Biya), would succeed the Cameroonian president in an untimely vacancy. Njifenji—currently at ninety years old and reportedly in poor health—would be tasked with holding elections between 20 and 120 days after the office becomes vacant, as outlined by Cameroon’s constitution. That is a relatively difficult job, even for the nimblest governments. As the ruling political party, the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement and its allies retain all facets of political power in the country. Many key opposition leaders have been divided, fled to self-imposed exile, or have passed away over time. Those in government hold relatively little power for actual change. In recent years, it has seemed possible that Biya would elevate his son as a successor in what has become a trend for the region, but the success of that approach is far from guaranteed.

Absent a unifying leader—one that is unlikely in a country not easily unified by ethnicity, religion, or language—a dangerous and violent scenario could unfold. Acute political instability would unsettle both West and Central Africa and would provide oxygen to armed groups in the Anglophone Crisis as well as in the Chad Basin (where the extremist groups Boko Haram and the Islamic State—West Africa Province are active) and in the porous eastern border with the Central African Republic. Opportunistic criminal networks could exploit any power vacuum in Cameroon and nearby, including next door in southeastern Nigeria.

The question remains: Why should the US government care about Cameroon, a country roughly the size of California with a gross domestic product around the size of Alaska’s, internal and external security issues, and a paralytic gerontocracy? Thus far, despite Cameroon’s strategic location, large economy, and incredible diversity, the United States and Cameroon have been unable to set up a winning partnership that benefits the Cameroonian people. As Cameroon increasingly looks to China as a development partner of choice, the United States should realize that its influence in Cameroon can’t be taken for granted.

US-Cameroon relations have historically been prickly and sometimes even outright rocky. Cameroon has come to distrust the United States after a series of real or perceived slights, including misunderstandings about contested presidential elections in 1992 (that ultimately saw Paul Biya prevail), suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act during the first Trump administration, and certain US policy decisions regarding conflict in the Anglophone regions of the country, which led to severe restrictions on US foreign assistance and military cooperation. US-Cameroon relations have also been affected by the fact that a small minority of the Cameroonian diaspora in the United States has engaged in the Anglophone Crisis, including by rallying funding, commanding fighters, and publicly coordinating messaging campaigns for militia groups seeking independence from the Francophone-dominated government. While the US government took some steps to reign in these actions, Cameroonian officials saw extended timelines on the US response and limited results as fundamentally unhelpful. At the same time, some members of the Cameroonian diaspora felt that the US government should have exerted more pressure on both the Biya-led government and armed groups to negotiate an end to the conflict. Back in Cameroon’s capital, the Biya-led government (in keeping with its history as a member of the Non-Aligned Movement) kept its options for international partnership open by engaging with Russia and China, in addition to France, Israel, and the United Kingdom.

From Cameroon’s standpoint, US engagement lacks consistency, seeing as Washington has been one to walk away, reduce foreign assistance programming, or limit security cooperation when Cameroonian human-rights or governance issues (which Cameroon perceives as domestic issues) become bilateral foreign policy irritants. Regardless, US policymakers expect Cameroon to accept the US worldview even if it doesn’t meet the country’s development, security, or economic goals.

One reason the United States should care about Cameroon is because of the country’s role as an economic hub for the region. Cameroon, located on the Gulf of Guinea, connects landlocked Central African countries such as Chad and the Central African Republic to the Atlantic Ocean. Cameroon’s ports at Douala and Kribi (the latter a project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative) provide a significant economic lifeline, facilitating the export of crude petroleum, natural gas, and timber and the import of refined petroleum, food, and clothing. Like many global ports, these port facilities also function as hubs for criminal networks and conflict actors. For example, according to the Africa Report, the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group used the port of Douala to enrich themselves and move their assets further inland.

The United States also has an economic interest in a secure and transparent Cameroon. Currently, Cameroon struggles with corruption, although efforts to combat such corruption remain ongoing. A loyalty-based patronage system as well as paper-based procurement processes (through which it is easier to exchange bribes) contribute to this climate. According to the US Department of State, US firms have said that corruption is most pervasive in government procurement, the award of licenses or concessions, monetary transfers, performance requirements, dispute settlements, the regulatory system, customs, and taxation. Efforts to hold officials accountable for corruption are mixed. In 2012, Cameroonian authorities found former Minister Hamidou Marafa Yaya guilty of corruption, but Marafa denied making any attempt at embezzlement and said his detention is politically motivated—and a United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention concluded his detention is arbitrary, saying his right to a fair trial had been violated. In 2023, a Cameroonian court sentenced former Minister of Defense Edgar Alain Mebe Ngo’o, his wife, and three other co-defendants to prison for corruption charges involving military contracts (Ngo’o and his wife denied any wrongdoing).

There is much at stake in Cameroon. Here are ten recommendations for the Trump administration.

Recommendations for the immediate term

Develop a high-level interagency Cameroon strategy. It should include visits by senior US Department of State and other executive-branch officials. This effort can reinforce the work of the US ambassador to Cameroon as a potential crisis looms. In an era of great-power competition, this strategy should include a clear definition of US goals in Cameroon, in addition to a review of the US foreign policy tools available to assist Cameroon with its development, security, and governance challenges.

Intensify engagement and meetings with all parties involved in the upcoming presidential elections. Avoid statements or appearances that could be interpreted as picking potential successors, which were the source of ruffling in the US-Cameroon relationship in 1992.

Focus on creating stronger economic ties with Cameroon while also supporting human rights and good governance. This is what Cameroonian officials tell US officials that they want. Previous US policy reduced economic and commercial ties in Cameroon out of concern for human rights and governance, using standards that may not be universally applied to other non-African countries facing similar challenges. Instead, the United States can push for improved human rights and governance (for example, by advocating for the release of high-profile political prisoners such as Marafa) while also pursuing stronger economic and commercial ties.

Seek wider perspectives beyond government-to-government contact. Engage credible voices on Cameroon in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere in real and consistent policy discussions instead of one-off roundtables that lack staying power and impact. Doing so can ensure that the United States has access to a full range of views about the political process and to networks that the administration can draw upon in a crisis.

Proactively engage congressional leaders and their senior staff on Cameroon matters. This can be accomplished through testimony, hearings, the Congressional Research Service, and other legislative branch tools. Encourage congressional staff and member delegations to Cameroon to inform other congressional staff and members of what is at stake.

Recommendations for the short-to-medium term

Task the intelligence community with assessing the political, economic, social, and security situation in the country. This assessment should outline critical public messaging themes that can help unify Cameroon in a potential crisis, the key players in the country’s future, and potential successors among the political, economic, and military elites. The assessment should include listings of monetary assets, real estate and commercial holdings, and any US dollar-denominated bank accounts. The intelligence assessment should also shed light on money laundering and terrorist financing vulnerabilities for this regional banking hub, and it should map and analyze the relationships key Cameroonians have with Russia, China, and Israel for potential leverage points during a crisis.

Hold a tabletop exercise to plan for realistic political scenarios. The tabletop exercise should include agencies from across the US government and also the US embassy in Cameroon. Such an exercise would help the US government understand what the various scenarios mean for US personnel, Peace Corps volunteers, and US facilities in the country. In Cameroon, most official US personnel and facilities are based in Yaoundé, so evacuation may be difficult: While Yaoundé has an international airport, the Cameroonian international airport that offers the most flights and destinations is in Douala, nearly five hours away. Such challenges require early contingency planning.

Learn from past mistakes in Cameroon and more recent ones made elsewhere, for example in Sudan. Political transitions can happen quickly. Ensuring that the US government has a strategy and network to draw from in a crisis or post-crisis scenario can help decisionmakers as they articulate what a positive relationship with Cameroon could look like—potentially with an untested or unknown leader. Doing so may go a long way toward building credibility.

Develop a quick response package. Drawing on an interagency Cameroon strategy, an intelligence assessment, and lessons learned from the past, the US administration should take proactive steps to prepare diplomatic and economic statecraft tools that can be rapidly deployed in the event of crisis. For example, the US administration should consider sanctions targets and be ready to announce them quickly. Government departments and agencies—including State, Defense, Treasury, the Development Finance Corporation, the Millenium Challenge Corporation, and others—should have humanitarian aid, economic support, and incentives for security sector reform ready to deploy quickly in a crisis.

A recommendation for ongoing strategy

Do not wait on traditional allies such as the United Kingdom, France, or others to act in concert. US and ally interests in Cameroon often do not align. France, now on the back foot in several African countries, may not be able to help. Russia and China are in Cameroon for themselves. Global competitors are already aggressively pursuing their political, economic, and security goals in Cameroon.

Cameroon faces an uncertain future. US policymakers have the opportunity to change Cameroon’s trajectory by accompanying the country as it navigates its future uncertainties. Should Cameroon’s future bring wider violence, the potential for the country to fracture around ethnic, linguistic, religious, or other lines could look similar to, or potentially worse than, the break-up of the former Yugoslavia in southern Europe in the 1990s. But if Cameroon can successfully navigate the period ahead with the United States as a viable partner, it will have contributed to stabilizing the heart of Central Africa, building a brighter and stronger future, and keeping US global adversaries at bay.

Source: Atlantic Council