As it’s often said *’Politics is local’*. It is indeed local.

*Cameroons Electoral Political History*

At the Reunification of Cameroon in 1961, The Southern Cameroons (later West Cameroon) was an electoral Constituency (within which contested the various Southern Cameroons Political Parties).

While LRC (East Cameroon) had three Constituencies that voted along these lines (The Grand North – Fulanis, The Centre South – Betis and the West- Bamileke & Bassa).

*Case Precedent – 1992 Presidential Elections*

The results of the 1992 Presidential Elections displayed the following patterns;

*SDF* – won in the North West, South West, Littoral & West Regions.

*CPDM* – won in the Centre, South, East & Far North Regions.

*UNDP* – won in the Adamawa & North Regions.

Ever since the 1992 Presidential Elections till present, all electoral results have reflected the above patterns.

While the CPDM made inroads into the SDFs & UNDPs Constituencies, both the SDF and UNDP were reduced to Regional Political Parties as seen in the recent Senatorial Elections with the SDF winning only 7 seats of 70 contested seats. While the CPDM won 63 on 70 seats and the UNDP failed to win a single seat.

*Electoral Data*

*SDF*

Looking at the recent Electoral historical data Joshua Osih the SDFs candidate is destined to win less than 15% of the vote. And with Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia his constituency not taking part in the elections, Joshua Osih and the SDF may retain less than 10% of the vote.

*NOW MOVEMENT*

With the *NOW MOVEMENT* taking part in the elections for the first time, not representing any political party and with Ambazonia, Akere Muna’s constituency not taking part in the elections, Akere Muna is destined to win less than 5% of the vote.

*The CPDM*

This leaves the CPDM party and its candidate to win the remainder of the vote with at least 75% and the other 5% being won by other smaller parties like Maurice Kamto’s MRC.

This is based on recent Electoral data in which the CPDM won 56 seats in all 8 Regions of LRC and 7 seats in one of the two Regions in Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia. The above analysis is based on recent empirical data.

*The Wild Card – A Presidential Coalition of Opposition Political Parties/Movements*

Recent electoral data doesn’t prevent the Opposition parties from forming a coalition if they stand a chance of defeating the ruling party CPDM.

Based on recent Coalition Electoral data this coalition will have as members the SDF (Joshua Osih), MRC (Maurice Kamto), NOW Movement (Akere Muna), CDU (Adamou Ndam Njoya), CPP (Kah Walla) and any other smaller political parties.

Of all the above candidates only Maurice Kamto is from LRC and the rest of the candidates are from Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia whose constituency will not be taking part in the elections and whose constituency represent about 20 – 25% of the electorate.

Based on recent Electoral data any coalition will need to win the Grand North constituency (Adamawa, North and Far North Regions) which is currently in the grasp of the CPDM.

It should be noted that the Grand North constituency is the most populated constituency from recent population census data.

The possible best results for any such coalition of Opposition parties will be 20 – 30% of the vote which still leaves the CPDM with an outright victory of 70% of the vote considering Cameroon only conducts a Single round of votes at the Presidential Elections.

*The Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia Question*

With Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia having declared her independence on 1st October 2017 and currently engage in a guerilla warfare with the LRC Military it is difficult to see how up to 20% of the electorate in this part of the country will vote.

Also the Ambazonia Interim Government has prohibited the conducting of any LRC Elections within Ambazonia. The continous displacement of the population of Ambazonia and the reign of terror being executed on these populations by Military Forces from LRC indicates the majority of the populations of Ambazonia are in no mode to take part in elections being organised by a Government who has inflicted so much pain and terror on them.

*Reasons for Outright Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia Restoration of Independence*

The SDF was formed in 1990 with sole mission to restore the former State of West Cameroon. However with citizens from LRC taking much interest in the SDF party, the SDF NEC decided to take a shot at capturing the Presidency of LRC. The SDF candidate at the 1992 Presidential Elections John Fru Ndi came a close second with 36% of the vote, while Paul Biya of the CPDM won with 39% of the votes.

Ever since then the SDF has seen its electoral fortunes reduced and confined to the North West Region giving it a Regional party rather than National party status. This has convinced the majority of Southern Cameroonians/Ambazonians that the only option left to them is to support the Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia  Interim Government to enable it restore the Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia’s Autonomy as was the case In 1961.

*Summary*

Based on the above analysis and recent electoral data, it is difficult to assume or predict how either Joshua Osih (SDF) or Akere Muna (NOW Movement) could win the 2018 LRC Presidential Elections.

However in politics nothing is permanent or predictable. I will conclude by stating in October 2018 (that is if the LRC Presidential Elections are held) the results will vindicate the above analysis.

By Oswald Tebit

The opinions expressed here are NOT that of the Cameroon Concord News Group

In the past year, both national holidays commemorating Cameroon’s foundations – October 2017’s independence anniversary and May 2018’s National Day salute to the unitary state system – were marred by violence between the Francophone government and Anglophone secessionists. The secessionists, who formally declared independence for the “Republic of Ambazonia” in October, have struggled to establish a sovereign state comprising the bilingual country’s primarily English-speaking Northwest and Southwest Regions. Now, they are resorting to any means necessary – including violence – to achieve their goals.

Issues of minority recognition in Cameroon are rooted in the country’s post-colonial unification and long-standing tradition of sidelining the English-speaking minority’s language and customs. When the movement’s current manifestation emerged in late 2016, it did so through peaceful protests calling for a return to Anglophone-Francophone federalism. However, because of the government’s violent reaction to such demonstrations, the movement morphed into its present form. It is now more mainstream in reach, but more extreme in strategy.

The shift in the movement’s ultimate goal–from power-sharing to secession–has subsequently changed its methodology. Now, life in the Northwest and Southwest Regions of Cameroon is characterized by fear as protests, curfews, security patrols, arrests, abductions, and killings occur daily. While the rebels’ strategy has become increasingly violent, the central government is equally responsible for the many deaths and disappearances reported over the past six months.

Violence around Cameroon’s May National Day celebrations is a microcosm of the larger conflict. Expectedly, hostility stained the commemoration of the 46th anniversary of the country’s transition from a federal system–which equalized the French and English language, legal, and educational systems–to the Francophone-based unitary state system, approved by national referendum in 1972. While Francophones celebrated the May 20 holiday in Yaoundé with a parade and speeches, Anglophone secessionists boycotted festivities, kidnapped local leaders, and murdered several police officers. Then, later in the week, several dozen so-called “terrorists” were killed by security forces in the Northwest Region. This retaliation not only added to the number of casualties, but also signaled that the government is willing to strike back.

Reports since October 2017 indicate that a high number of civilians and secessionists–allegedly over one hundred– have died in clashes with government troops, in addition to the hundreds arrested. Meanwhile, rebels have reportedly killed at least forty government personnel, and have abducted, held, and tortured scores of local leaders, teachers, government supporters, and security agents.

The fighting has also led to substantial displacement. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, more than 160,000 people have been displaced within Cameroon since 2016. At the end of March, the United Nations Refugee Agency reported that over 20,000 refugees have fled into neighboring Nigeria, with more than half arriving in 2018 alone.

The use of violent tactics by marginalized populations agitating for political rights and representation showcases a systemic problem within authoritarian countries. While many similar movements begin peacefully, brutal governmental reactions often follow. In many cases, governmental overreaction signals that peaceful mobilization will be fruitless and provides an opening for a movement’s more radical members.

In Cameroon, peaceful protests in late 2016 were met with repression, resulting in the existing situation and placing responsibility for the violence squarely on the shoulders of the central government. The government’s violent reaction–coupled with its unwillingness to negotiate with Anglophone leaders or compromise its current policies–forced a subset of the Anglophone movement to conclude that no recourse was available except violence of their own. While it is unclear how representative these violent groups are of the larger Anglophone movement, it is dangerous for anyone in an opposition movement to resort to violence; such a strategy ultimately provides repressive governments an opening to label the entire movement as “terrorists” or “dissidents” and to ignore those peacefully advocating for their rights.

As a result, while there are many Anglophones who sympathize with the movement’s original intent, the violence has created a situation in which citizens are forced to choose: support the Cameroonian state and continue to be marginalized, or support the “Ambazonians” and risk being deemed a terrorist. The high levels of displacement suggest that picking sides is more dangerous than fleeing.

Whether it evolves into a full scale civil war and humanitarian disaster or not, the current conflict triggers questions regarding the legitimacy of the Anglophone movement. Before the movement resorted to violence, the Francophone government’s crackdown on Anglophone protesters was viewed as authoritarian repression against innocent civilians seeking a break from long-standing marginalization. Although peaceful methods did not help them to accomplish their goals, the Anglophone movement’s acceptance of–and explicit call for–violence as a tactic in their struggle against the state may delegitimize their objectives as it displaces and harms innocent civilians. Furthermore, the group’s indiscriminate violence may concurrently provide security forces with an excuse to use similar tactics and legitimize the state’s classification of the secessionists as terrorists.

Despite the Anglophone crisis’ steady intensification over the past eight months, the international community has mostly ignored the growing violence and the government’s role perpetuating the situation. While this may be due, in part, to the myriad humanitarian crises and conflicts in the region, the fact that Cameroon–which has been hailed as one of Central Africa’s beacons of stability despite its authoritarian government and is an important partner in the regional war on terror–is facing growing instability as the Anglophone crisis continues to escalate, is not one that many international partners are ready to acknowledge.

However, in recent weeks, the United States has stepped up, calling for an end to the violence. Following the US Department of State’s Human Rights report’s criticism of abuses in Cameroon, the US Embassy has been more vocal. Prior to Cameroon’s National Day celebrations, US Ambassador Peter Barlerin met with President Paul Biya and explicitly condemned the actions of both sides. While Barlerin denounced the “murders of gendarmes, kidnapping of government officials, and burning of schools” by Anglophone secessionists, he also publicly accused the government of “targeted killings, detentions without access to legal support, family, or the Red Cross, and burning and looting of villages”–an important step in persuading Biya to consider the Anglophone case and reminding the international community that the Cameroonian government is ultimately at fault for the ongoing violence.

Again calling for a dialogue, Barlerin noted that Biya has an opportunity to cement his legacy prior to the upcoming October 2018 elections by re-establishing peace in the country. While the outcome is near certain–Biya will again extend his thirty-five-year hold on power–the elections, which will occur just over a year after “Ambazonia’s” declaration of independence, offer an opportunity for international partners to pressure the government and the secessionists to negotiate peace. In using the leverage gained by supporting regional security efforts, including the fight against Boko Haram, Cameroon’s international partners can persuade the government to end the violence against Anglophones and to seek a long-term solution to their marginalization. Further, the elections provide a national and international platform for the Anglophone movement to amplify its voice and concerns, and to seek the recognition and representation it desires through non-violent means.

Culled from the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center

An unsettling calm seems to be permeating through Cameroon after the gruesome massacre of young Southern Cameroonians in the North West region of the country. The situation in Cameroon’s two English-speaking regions has continued to deteriorate following the slaughtering of 30 young men and women in Menka-Pinyin last Thursday following a violent attack by government forces.

This unnecessary act of brutality has drawn wide condemnation around the world and the government seems to be bowing to the international pressure that comes with such condemnation. The American Ambassador to Cameroon, Henry Berlerin, had clearly called on the country’s president to have a rethink of his political agenda by urging him to emulate the examples of Nelson Mandela and George Washington. A coded language that has left the government and its surrogates in total confusion.  

But what is of more concern is the fact that the U.S. Ambassador’s statement has the full backing of the U.S. Congress. Mr. Berlerin, who was viciously ridiculed by the regime and its praise singers, was simply delivering a message to the country’s president, Paul Biya; a message contained in a letter dated February 9, 2018 and signed by four American lawmakers. The Congressmen had instructed Mr. Berlerin to advise Mr. Biya that, after spending more than 35 years in office, it was time for him to hand over to the next generation and that a new leadership was necessary for governance in the country to experience some improvements.

“We respect the rights of Cameroonians to select their leaders and note that the past Presidential elections have been marred by allegations of fraud, electoral institutions bias, and an unfair playing field. We note that the political process is heavily controlled by President Biya and his party, and that the State Department’s Country Report on Human Rights covering Cameroon’s last presidential elections, in 2011, assessed the contest to have been “flawed by irregularities, including the failure to properly distribute all voter cards, late opening of polling stations, multiple voting, ballot-box stuffing, the absence of indelible ink, and intimidation of voters.” The most recent Human Right Report notes “restrictions of freedom of expression” as a top human right concern, and states that “opposition and civil society activists were harassed, detained and denied the right to assemble or operate by the government,” the letter signed by the Congressmen said, adding that …”After 35 years, new leadership is necessary for governance improvements.”

Regarding the conflict in the two English-speaking regions, the Ambassador’s press statement after meeting with Mr. Biya on the eve of May 20, 2018 celebrations tied in well with the letter of the congress men. The lawmakers had in the letter condemned violence on both sides, and particularly the disproportionate use of force and military power by the government. The Congressmen singled out the country’s Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR), which they noted, had been notorious for many human right atrocities in Southern Cameroons and in the Northern part of the country.

“…Given that certain units of the BIR operating in the North have been found ineligible for assistance under the Leahy law due to human rights abuses, we ask that rigorous scrutiny be applied to the BIR and any other security forces operating in the Anglophone regions, to ensure that U.S assistance is not abetting violation of Cameroonians’ rights. Further, we respectfully ask you to convey the message that security force abuses can exacerbate resentments that fuel instability, and work with your partners both in the U.S military and among like-minded embassies to emphasize the need for respect for basic rights in the Anglophone regions” the letter added.

Even the United Nations has not been indifferent to what is happening in Cameroon, a country once touted as the oasis of peace in the Central African region. A statement by the United Nations in its emergency plan for Cameroon holds that the issues in the two English-speaking regions are mainly political, with some humanitarian components. This implies that the Yaounde government must bend over backwards to address the political issues that are ruining the country’s unity.  

“The situation in the south-west and north-west remains primarily a political and human rights crisis, but is increasingly having humanitarian implications. Recent needs assessments indicate that at least 160,000 people have been internally displaced in the two affected regions, and they need humanitarian and protection assistance over the next three months. In addition, at least 21,000 Cameroonians have been registered as refugees in Cross River, Benue and Akwa Ibom States in Nigeria.”

The report adds that “The crisis in the south-west and north-west regions is taking place against a backdrop of several other humanitarian emergencies that are affecting 3.3 million people across the country, compounding pre-existing vulnerabilities. Since 2016, political and social instability, exacerbated by sporadic violence, has had a negative impact on the civilian population of Cameroon’s South-West and North-West Regions, hosting four million inhabitants (16 per cent of the total population). In November 2017, the socio-political crisis progressively translated into insecurity and armed violence. Since then, the escalation of tension and upsurge in hostilities between non-state armed groups and defence and security forces have triggered humanitarian needs across the two regions, linked to significant internal displacement.”

The document further points out that “The government’s decision to declare war on its own people has had a far-reaching effect. The crisis has impacted children’s right to education, with at least 40 schools affected and an estimated 42,500 school-aged children with limited access to education for the past two years. Several attacks by non-state armed groups have also targeted schools, leading to the death of at least two teachers, further disrupting the educational system. Where schools are still functional, there are significant gaps in teaching and learning material. The disruption of education is putting children at greater risk of exploitation, child labour, early marriage and unwanted pregnancy. This phenomenon is exacerbated by the perception that schools could be targets of attack, resulting in parents refusing to send their children to school.”

Life in the two regions has been disrupted by the crisis. The government believes in an all-out military victory, holding that brute force will being back peace to the country. But close to two years after, things are getting worse and the future looks very bleak. Before the crisis, most of the population in the two affected regions relied on agriculture and small trades. Threats of attacks continue to have a negative impact on trade, livelihoods and markets, and access to land. In Kumba, South-West region’s largest city, where at least 20% of the population fled to surrounding villages, food is identified as the main priority.

Farmers, small-scale fishermen and their families find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position due to the disruption of their activities. Internally displaced people (IDPs) have had to resort to negative food-related coping strategies, reducing the number of meals (to one meal a day) and adult consumption in order to feed the children. Additionally,restrictions on movements (curfews, security and administrative measures), poor infrastructures, and checkpoints continue to hinder access to land and markets. This situation will surely get worse in the days ahead if a peaceful settlement is not sort by the government

The days ahead do not hold out much hope for Cameroon. French-speaking Cameroonians living in the English-speaking regions are today living in fear. The Southern Cameroons Interim Government has issued an order for all French-speaking Cameroonians to pack and leave the two English-speaking regions. The Yaounde government is yet to make plans on how to receive its refugees. Southern Cameroonians have already started chasing their French-speaking counterparts and this will be getting worse in the days ahead.

On June 1, 2018, there were skirmishes in Etoko in Manyu Division between the Police and Ambazonian fighters who are already seeking to implement the Interim Government’s order. The threat of evicting French-speaking Cameroonians on a large scale and the admonishment and advice of the Trump Administration have left the Yaounde government in fear and confusion. And this explains the calm that has engulfed the country after the massacre in Menka-Pinyin.

After the Interim Government issued its order, a young Red Dragon fighter who has been in the jungles of Lebialem for more than six months said that Francophones had an interest to comply with the Interim Government’s orders, adding that they were running out of patience and would  surely be staging a show that would shock the world once the deadline expired.

He added that “Let nobody think this is an empty threat. We have seen our brothers and sisters being killed by government forces and we are ready to revenge. There will be a bloodbath after the expiry of the Interim Government’s order. We have faith in our Interim Government and we will do all what it takes to ensure that the laws of the land are respected. If the Yaounde government thinks this is a joke, then it has not yet understood that it has a huge crisis on its hands. We are prepared to die. We have been enslaved for decades and now is the time to liberate our land. We have never thought that independence will come easy. We know it is never delivered on a platter of gold. We are aware of what happened to Eritrea, South Sudan and even in faraway Timor Leste. We are well read. We are also university graduates, but the government’s decision to declare a war on us will turn out to be its greatest undoing. If the world is still on the sidelines, then it really wants to play spectator to a Rwanda-style genocide at the end of the month. We will be staging a massive show that will shock everybody. We never asked for this war. It was imposed on us and we will do all in our power to end the oppression that has been ours for decades.”

Speaking to our correspondent in Mamfe recently, a fighter who had elected anonymity said that they were using different strategies to roll back the enemy. He stressed that all was fair in love and war, adding that the government had made a mistake to engage Southern Cameroonians in a battle that was not necessary.

“We are making sure the enemy feels the pain. The enemy has resorted to indiscriminate killings and this is hurting our people. We too are using all the means available to us to strike the enemy who is scared of dying. The young Beti soldiers who have been sent to come and destroy our cities and towns will pay a huge price. They have been killing our people as if they are animals. We will pay them in their own coins,” he said.

He added that “In Njeke, a small town close to Kembong, we deceived the enemy. We had a small party in Njeke where we killed a goat as part of the party. We cooked everything. We poisoned a whole pot and ate the part that was not poisoned. We sent someone to inform the hungry soldiers that we were partying. By the time they arrived the venue of our party, we had melted into the bushes. They seized a whole pot of goat meat. They also started feasting on it without suspecting anything. But that pot had poison in it. Today, some of them have already died and many are fighting for their lives. We will continue to delete them from the face of the earth using any means we know. The soldiers are hungry. Their masters in Yaounde cannot sustain them. The population is hostile to them and this has left them with lots of butterflies in their stomachs.”

 It is heartrending to know that things have declined to such levels where Cameroonians are today killing each other. This is the unfortunate legacy Mr. Biya is leaving for Cameroonians. Mr. Biya, once touted as the one person who could transform the country into a modern paradise, is today a nightmare that will not go away anytime soon. Cameroonians – Francophones and Anglophones – have always lived in peace, but the government’s corruption, nepotism and inefficiency have ruined the love and peace that once existed between these two linguistic groups.

The government’s brutal action over the last 18 months has shattered any hopes of dialogue and unity. Despite global condemnation, Yaounde authorities have continued to behave like gangsters instead of disciplined officials who should, at any moment, seek to work out things through dialogue.

The Yaounde regime has never taken time to investigate any killings. All it has always done is to resort to collective punishment wherein the houses of innocent civilians are razed, and innocent youths gunned down point blank. The actions of the country’s armed forces have created more fighters over the last six months, as ordinary civilians – both boys and girls – now believe they have to defend themselves against a military that is using their tax money to murder the people they are supposed to protect.

Southern Cameroonians have been calling for international assistance. They now want the world to protect them against their supposed protectors. The government’s mass murdering tactics and collective punishment have drawn a lot of flak in recent times and even the Trump Administration has been disappointed by the methods the dictatorial government in Yaounde is using to restore order in the two restive English-speaking regions of the country.

The letter of the American congressmen should be seen as a warning. The words of the American ambassador must also be viewed as a sound piece of advice that must be taken seriously. The Yaounde regime must look into the mirror of history to understand how Americans operate around the world.

In the early 90s, the American Ambassador to Zaire, Bill Richardson, had advised Mubutu to quit power and that if he did not act accordingly, he would be humiliated and this actually came to pass. A few months after that friendly advice, Zaire unraveled and the “Leopard of Zaire”, another name for Mr. Mubutu, was chased out of power by a ragtag military that had the support and blessing of Western countries.

The pressure on the government and its supporters is mounting and it is clear that the Biya regime is gradually crumbling under pressure, especially as the order of the Southern Cameroons Interim Government will enter into force today. The tough guy appearance that government official spotted at the beginning of the crisis seems to be melting. Government officials who caused the crisis to escalate are today staying away from the spotlight. Fame Ndongo, Laurent Esso and Issa Tchiroma are all keeping a very low profile as they know they are to blame for the gory genocide that is playing out in Southern Cameroons.

No matter what happens today in Cameroon, a few things are obvious. The country’s unity has been shattered and life will never be the same in that country. While it will be hard for Southern Cameroons to be independent, it is clear that after the spilling of blood and the destruction of homes in the north-west and south-west regions of the country, a new political dispensation must be engineered if both linguistic communities have to live in peace.

The new Cameroon will surely not have the same political features like the old Cameroon. While Southern Cameroonians have a huge appetite for independence, they must find ways to tamper their appetite. The international community is gradually injecting itself into the game. Unfortunately, it has a very low appetite for independence. Federalism may be the median path that may bring some peace to the troubled country. But for now, the calm in the country is scarier than the sound of guns.

 By Kingsley Betek in Yaounde

Erik Essouse was appointed on Monday by President Biya as Chief Electoral Officer of ELECAM, the body in charge of the electoral process in Cameroon. The new so-called general manager replaces Abdoulaye Babale, accused by the electoral council of “gross negligence”.

Prior to his appointment, Erik Essouse was the Deputy Chief Electoral Officer. He had held the position since 2008. His appointment comes about 5 months before the presidential election, which is scheduled to take place between 14 October and 14 September. Abdoul Karimou was appointed Deputy General Manager.

By Rita Akana

In its ongoing military campaign to suppress and subjugate an increasing conscious Southern Cameroons population who have since November 2016 been progressively pressuring the francophone dominated government to listen to their legitimate demands, the Biya régime, through its continuous and unabated violence and brutality in the two English speaking regions have crossed the red line.

Thousands of Southern Cameroonians have fled their homes seeking refuge in the bushes and forests as they battle with diseases, snake bites, insect bites and every imaginable risk under such conditions. Some 40,000 have made their way into neighboring Nigeria.  According to the latest UN report, 160.000 Southern Cameroonians have been displaced internally. Cameroon government forces have ever since engaged in burning down entire village communities abandoned by desperate Ambazonians whose voices have been loud but ignored by those who are the watchdog of global security.

In his senseless malicious military campaign against citizens of the former British Cameroons, the young, the old and the weak have been burnt alive as they constitute the vulnerable class of people who are unable to undertake the pernicious and physically challenging adventure in to the forests.

Teenagers like the 11 year old Ellen of Bansoh Bui and the 14 year old Medien of Widikum have suffered life threatening and definitely life changing injuries. Both girls received bullets in their faces and have ever since been receiving medical care thanks to the relentless humanitarian campaign of the Lord Justice Ayah Foundation.

Unlike the young Pakistani girl Malala who survived the Taliban gun attack and who gained international recognition and support, these Malalas of Southern Cameroons have been ignored by the same community and organisations that stood up in support of Malala from Pakistan.  In the face of all these abuses, a lot of tongues have been waging on how many more are going to flee their homes and seek refuge in dangerous habitats before the world stands up to the realities of the crisis? How many more Southern Cameroons youths are going to be slaughtered, tortured to death, and buried in mass graves before the UN will take action?

Southern Cameroonians have been calling for international assistance. They now want the world to protect them against their supposed protectors. The government’s mass murdering tactics and collective punishment have drawn a lot of flak in recent times and even the Trump Administration has been disappointed by the methods the dictatorial government in Yaounde is using to restore order in the two restive English-speaking regions of the country.

Thursday’s Menka murders came on the heels of a scathing criticism of the reckless Yaounde regime by the U.S. Ambassador, Peter Barlerin, who used his audience with the country’s president, Paul Biya, to call for an end to the senseless and targeted killings in the two English-speaking regions.

Mr. Barlerin also used the occasion to call on Mr. Biya to think of his legacy, a coded way of telling the Yaounde dictator not to run in the upcoming presidential election. It should be recalled that the Americans have a way of advising their erstwhile friends to quit power. Mr. Barlerin is simply walking in the steps of other American ambassadors who hold that governments must be accountable to their people.

The international community, and world organizations like the UN, the Commonwealth have all shown solidarity with Biya by their inaction and regular visits including exchange of pleasantries as they wine and dine in the luxurious so-called Unity Palace. The reaction of the UN and the Commonwealth has been all sound without fury, as the Biya régime goes viral with its excesses.

By Ntam Charles Ngeh

Bonn, Germany

Cameroon’s election commission on Friday called for the sacking of its own director, accusing him of “opaque and calamitous management” ahead of this year’s presidential and parliamentary votes, in an internal note seen by AFP.

The election commission Elecam said it had withdrawn support for its head, Abdoulaye Babale, and that he should be removed from his position by presidential decree.

In a letter to President Paul Biya last week, Elecam employees accused Babale of embezzling 2.76 billion CFA francs ($4.9 million) from the electoral body.

In Friday’s missive, Elecam accuses the commission chief of “opaque and calamitous management of human resources, materials and finances” as well as frequent absences, adding that his behaviour was affecting staff morale ahead of the elections due to take place before the end of the year.

The United Nations, the EU and the African Union have demonstrated a kind of “fake restraint” in responding to the atrocities being committed by Cameroon army soldiers in Southern Cameroons.  Even the US Congress reportedly told the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia that the Southern Cameroons exiled government could only get a Congressional Subcommittee on African Affairs hearing.  But the Ambazonia Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces have been so efficient even without international support to a point where President Biya’s men are now predicting disaster if the 85 year old fails to dialogue with Sisiku Ayuk Tabe and the Interim Government.

There are strong suggestions that the French and the American governments are struggling to extricate the Francophone dominated military from a war that never should have happened. However, the end product now being sought for by the French which is the so-called “one and indivisible” Cameroon simply isn’t in the cards.

If keeping a nation together were just about the army and the Rapid Intervention Battalion, BIR then Biya’s approach of declaring a war against Southern Cameroonians may have worked.  But there’s a lot more to governance than appointing your kinsmen to key positions in government and in the command structure of the military and the Secret Service. For many Southern Cameroonians, French Cameroun political elites are extremely lacking in political and management finesse and those factors that could have kept Anglophones and Francophones together remain as unattainable today as they were under the late President Ahmadou Ahidjo.  The simple truth is that this war has revealed a lot of Francophone bad faith and contempt for Southern Cameroonians. Consequently, Cameroon can never be a one and indivisible nation again and thus any international maneuvers to shore up Biya’s faltering regime are likely to fail.  Here are some of the reasons why the concept of a one and indivisible Cameroon is not feasible.

Southern Cameroonians and the people of French Cameroun have never had a shared sense of nationhood.  The country was fashioned for Southern Cameroons to serve as a colony of French Cameroon and the pattern of administration by the French Cameroun political elites have never corresponded with the loyalties of the English speaking community. The territory was split and renamed South West with a native Bantu and Semi Bantu population and the North West harboring the Tikars. The so-called South Westerners were teleguided to think that they share a lot in common with the French speaking tribes in the Littoral region of French Cameroun while the North Westerners were pushed towards the Bamilekes who occupy present day West region in French Cameroun. Both the Ahidjo and Biya regimes instituted anarchy plus fanaticism with little or no nationalism.

French Cameroun’s history of oppression.  Given the United Republic of Cameroon’s lack of an organic identity, Francophone political leaders have frequently resorted to force to hold the country together.  Ahmadou Ahidjo, a Muslim leader with the support of the French government brutally repressed a UPC uprising immediately after the UN Secretary General Dag Hamarskjold declared French Cameroun independent using indiscriminate means that killed thousands of Bassa and Bamileke natives and Biya has now raised the level of French Cameroun violence used in suppressing uprisings to genocidal intensity. If the two Cameroons are to remain together, then the international community will spend years after Biya on quelling sectarian violence as the enmity between Southern Cameroonians and French Cameroonians is deep-rooted and probably beyond remedy.

Many actors are getting involved.  To the east, the Central African Republic is run by a group of political elites trained in Yaoundé and supported by the Beti-Ewondo Fang and Bulu security apparatus with international cover from France. This group has repeatedly resorted to terrorism and subversion as a way of getting hold of the diamond and gold reserves in that country. It is vital to point out that the UN presence in Bangui is all French whitewash. Those participating in the diamond trade in Central Africa have created a safe haven in the East region of Cameroon for armed militants known as Anti Balaka. The nation is also bordered by Nigeria to the west with a decisive presidential elections coming up in 2019, Chad to the northeast with growing opposition to President Idris Deby’s rule and Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and the Republic of the Congo to the south all having disturbing political issues to address. Furthermore, Cameroon’s coastline lies on the Bight of Biafra, part of the Gulf of Guinea and the Atlantic Ocean. So with many Southern Cameroonians now carrying guns, the one and indivisible Cameroon is likely to remain a sectarian war zone. Biya is corrupt, incompetent and a bit paranoid when it comes to Southern Cameroons matters and he’s the crux of what’s wrong in Cameroon.

Christianity is no more an all-embracing force in Cameroon.  Southern Cameroonians no longer trust French Cameroun Roman Catholic Bishops. The Cameroon Episcopal dog under the stewardship of Archbishop Samuel Kleda of the Douala Arch Diocese has refused to bark ever since the killings started in Southern Cameroons. Southern Cameroon’s once thriving Christian community has long since fled to Nigeria and some to the bushes. The ruling CPDM crime syndicate has successfully infiltrated the Roman Catholic and the Presbyterian Churches and it is hard to say whether key values such as the separation of church and state exist again in Cameroon.

Anglophones are two cubes of sugar.  One aspect of inequality that typically gets excluded from conventional assessments of Cameroon’s political culture is the inferior status of Anglophone political and administrative leaders.  If you have followed recent developments in French Cameroun, you may have noticed that the Francophone governors and Senior Divisional Officers do not respect Southern Cameroons traditional and religious leaders. While Francophones barons of the regime such Vice Prime Minister Amadou Ali, Justice Minister Laurent Esso, Bello Bouba Maigari, Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Fame Ndongo are always kept in government and in strategic positions of command, Southern Cameroonian political elites such as Achidi Achu, Dorothy Njeuma, Itoe Benjamin are regularly being dismissed from government for lame and ridiculous reasons and are most of the time appointed to head departments that are not of Francophone interest. Most French Cameroun political elites including Biya see the need for their kids to study in English schools and universities, but accepting that English should be equal to French is another matter as this will not go well with the French government.  Since both sides in Cameroon claims to adhere to different precepts, equality will be hard to sell and at the moment history seems to be pedaling furiously in the opposite direction.  Getting rid of Biya won’t change the basic character of French Cameroon political elites, and therefore won’t materially improve the prospects for maintaining a one and indivisible Cameroon.  The only way the French and French Cameroonians can fashion a government in Cameroon that even vaguely resembles a government of national unity is to have a Southern Cameroonian as head of state.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The Southern Cameroons crisis that has put the country in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons has started spiraling out of control. Government brutality that has been widely condemned is to blame for the chaos that is playing out in the two English-speaking regions of the country.

For close to two years, the supporters of the Yaounde regime have been beating the drums of war and young Beti soldiers stationed in the English-speaking regions have been spreading death and destruction. Many young men have been gunned down point blank and many houses have been burnt down in a bid to strike fear into many Southern Cameroonians who have clearly expressed their support for a rebellion they hold will bring them independence and a better life.

The Yaounde government has always turned a blind eye to their plight. While the educational rate in the two English-speaking regions stand at more than 80%, unemployment, for its part, stands at over 90% among educated Southern Cameroonians in major cities and towns in the English-speaking regions. Even when there are state-owned corporations in Southern Cameroons, the workers are mostly French-speaking Cameroonians.

In the South West region where there are at least three major state-owned corporations, the story is very pathetic. The Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC) that used to be a preserve for Southern Cameroonians has been taken over by Francophones. Today, it is normal to find drivers who can only speak French in many CDC plantations in the South West region.

For the national oil refinery, SONARA, the story will bring down tears to the cheeks of even the most hardened observer. All the top positions are occupied by Francophones and the language of communication in Limbe where SONARA is located is French.

To make matters worse, SONARA workers have their own neighborhoods which are heavily guarded while their children attend special schools. The local people have simply been reduced to sorry spectators to how their natural wealth is being harvested and taken to East Cameroon.

For more than forty years since the establishment of SONARA, no South-westerner has ever led the corporation. The Francophone population in the city of Limbe has become very arrogant and it has been treating the locals like garbage. Despite years of complaints and protests, the corporation’s officials and their backers in Yaounde have continued to treat the people as if they are a conquered people.

The government has simply decided to be blind and deaf to the plea of a people who have never had their fair share of the national cake. A trip to Ndian Division where the oil fields are located could be a huge eye-opener. There are no roads in the Division and health care facilities are simply non-existent. The Rio Del Rey Estuary where the black gold is harvested looks more like a war zone. The Yaounde government seems to be conducting itself as a foreign government that must exploit the locals.

While it is carting away the oil, it is working hard to keep the people in poverty so that they will never have the capacity to complain. The story of the inhabitants of this region is that of extreme poverty and abysmal ignorance. While advances in technology have granted many people around the world the opportunity to emerge from ignorance, the people of Indian Division are simply not part of the new technology age. They are in this world, but not of this world. They have become victims of their God-given wealth.

But this might be changing very soon. The Southern Cameroons crisis which has been ignored by the government for a long time has finally reached a critical phase. After having complained for more than five decades, the people of Southern Cameroons have finally opted for arms against their will. They have to defend themselves against a regime that understands only one language – an iron fist. And that fist will surely be visiting all French-speaking Cameroonians who are still living in Southern Cameroons.

The Ambazonian Interim Government has given all French-speaking Cameroonians right up to May 31, 2018 to leave the newly created Federal Republic of Ambazonia otherwise known as Southern Cameroons. Any French-speaking Cameroonians who do not heed this advice will surely have themselves to blame and the Ambazonian Defense forces will be implementing the law as prescribed by the Interim Government.

Any French-speaking Cameroonian caught in Southern Cameroons after the prescribed deadline will be considered a criminal alien whose intention is to destabilize the fatherland. This crime carries the capital punishment and the different armed groups have been called upon to enforce the law after the deadline.

All Southern Cameroonians housing French-speaking Cameroonians have an obligation to send them out before the expiry of the deadline. Failure to comply with the laws of the land could result in severe punishment, including the burning of their property. The message has been clearly articulated in an audio message issued by Mr. Chris Anu, the Communication Secretary of the Southern Cameroons Interim Government. It is therefore in the interest of all Southern Cameroonians to be law-abiding. Southern Cameroons will never be chaotic and any lawless elements will be promptly taken into newly built green jails in Southern Cameroons.

The Interim Government’s message looks like an empty threat, but it should be taken seriously. Over the last two weeks, the Yaounde government has been gunning down many young Southern Cameroonians and the whole world has been playing spectator to the killings. The American government has been very critical of the government’s targeted killings. The international community has been horrified by such acts of criminality, but the Yaounde government has remained indifferent to the plea of some of the respected voices in the world.

This therefore calls for self-defense. Southern Cameroonians have a right to self-defense and they want to use that right to protect themselves. They have clearly stated that they can no longer share the same geo-political space with their French-speaking counterparts. The government has been indifferent to their plea for years and they think now is the time for them to take those actions that will bring them the independence they need.

The government can no longer go about killing Southern Cameroonians with impunity. The world can also no longer stay on the sidelines as if Southern Cameroonians are simply lab animals that can just be disposed of anyhow.  Over the last five months, many innocent Southern Cameroonians have been sent to an early grave by young, sex-starved and alcohol inflamed Beti soldiers who erroneously think they are there to protect the Yaounde government that has outlived its usefulness.

In a reaction to the Interim Government’s order, a young Red Dragon fighter who has been in the jungles of Lebialem for more than six months said that “Francophones have an interest to comply with what the Interim Government has said. We are running out of patience and will surely be staging a show that will shock the world once the deadline expires.”

He added that “Let nobody think this is an empty threat. We have seen our brothers and sisters being killed by government forces and we are ready to revenge. There will be a bloodbath after the expiry of the Interim Government’s order. We have faith in our Interim Government and we will do all what it takes to ensure that the laws of the land are respected. If the Yaounde government thinks this is a joke, then it has not yet understood that it has a huge crisis on its hands. We are prepared to die. We have been enslaved for decades and now is the time to liberate our land. We have never thought that independence will come easy. We know it is never delivered on a platter of gold. We are aware of what happened to Eritrea, South Sudan and even in faraway Timor Leste. We are well read. We are also university graduates, but the government’s decision to declare a war on us will turn out to be its greatest undoing. If the world is still on the sidelines, then it really wants to play spectator to a Rwanda-style genocide at the end of the month. We will be staging a massive show that will shock everybody. We never asked for this war. It was imposed on us and we will do all in our power to end the oppression that has been ours for decades.”

While senior government officials are still trying to put on a brave face, many in the corridors of power are already very concerned. Southern Cameroonians have put up a good show beyond everybody’s wildest imagination and their determination is being admired by many French-speaking Cameroonians. But their recent move to chase French-speaking Cameroonians out of their land spells a huge disaster for the government.

For months, the government has been adamant to calls for an inclusive dialogue. Ever since the crisis started, the country’s president, Paul Biya, also known as the owner of the country, has refused to listen to many respectable voices across the world. The Pope has had an opportunity to talk to Mr. Biya. Leaders of Western Countries have advised him to pursue dialogue as a sure means out of the impasse. The African Union has once offered to mediate.

But he has remained tone deaf to these calls and his refusal is costing many lives. He too is putting a brave face, but American pressure seems to be paying off. Behind the scenes, the pennies seem to be dropping. The government wants to talk, but it has not got an interlocutor. It had arrested and delegitimized federalists in 2017. In 2018, Southern Cameroonian leaders were kidnapped in Nigeria and brought to Yaounde where they are being held incommunicado. Those are the people the government should be talking to if it has developed the right mind that can bring peace to the country.

The situation is spiraling out of control. Mr. Biya is losing support even within his own party. The Southern Cameroons crisis is surely that issue that will blow up the ruling party. The dissenting voices are increasing and the pressure on Mr. Biya is mounting. Some ruling party members hold that if Mr. Biya steps down, there could be a possibility for a negotiated settlement. Many ruling party members do not like the country to be split, but the manner in which Mr. Biya and his cohorts have handled the Southern Cameroons crisis leaves many of his supporters with no other option but to ask him to leave power.

Cameroon, once the oasis of peace, has become part of the chaos that has been the hallmark of its neighbors. The country has been gripped by the ‘dictator’s disease’; a disease that attacks African countries that have been ruled by sit-tight dictators. The Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic and Somalia are some of the African countries that have been victims of this devastating disease.

Many African dictators always bequeath civil wars and political chaos to future generations when they leave power. In many cases, they leave power forcefully or through a civil war. Cameroon is on its way to joining this unfortunate club as Mr. Biya and his collaborators hold that the best way to address political issues is to unleash a reign of terror on the people they are supposed to govern and protect.

The Southern Cameroons crisis which could have been addressed through an inclusive dialogue has today become a civil war wherein government soldiers are shooting and killing many innocent civilians, as they cannot fully engage the Southern Cameroons fighters who are lurking in the jungles. The fighters, for their part, are using rudimentary weapons to protect themselves and this is adding to the chaos that has made life unbearable in the English-speaking regions.

The fighting is unfortunately consuming many young soldiers who have been pushed by the government to go and kill Southern Cameroonians whose initial objective was to put their grievances on the government. The government’s violent response caused the demands of Southern Cameroonians to mutate and, today, almost all Southern Cameroonians, even those in government, are in support of secession. Federalism, which was initially on the table, is being rejected by a majority of Southern Cameroonians who clearly hold that they can no longer operate in a country where civil liberties are never respected.

In many towns and villages in the two English-speaking regions, corpses of young innocent civilians are being discovered at roadsides and the government seems to be padding itself on the back for accomplishing such a feat. It is a really tough to know that government officials of Beti extraction are really celebrating when their fellow compatriots are being shot down point blank. It is even more baffling to know that the same authorities have kept on talking about one and indivisible Cameroon when their brutality is slowly dividing the country.

Speaking to our correspondent in Mamfe recently, a fighter who elected anonymity said that they were using different strategies to roll back the enemy. He stressed that all was fair in love and war, adding that the government had made a mistake to engage Southern Cameroonians in a battle that was not necessary.

“We are making sure the enemy feels the pain. The enemy has resorted to indiscriminate killings and this is hurting our people. We too are using all the means available to us to strike the enemy who is scared of dying. The young Beti soldiers who have been sent to come and destroy our cities and towns will pay a huge price. They have been killing our people as if they are animals. We will pay them in their own coins,” he said.

He added that “In Njeke, a small town close to Kembong, we deceived the enemy. We had a small party in Njeke where we killed a goat as part of the party. We cooked everything. We poisoned a whole pot and ate the part that was not poisoned. We sent someone to inform the hungry soldiers that we were partying. By the time they arrived the venue of our party, we had melted into the bushes. They seized a whole pot of goat meat. They also started feasting on it without suspecting anything. But that pot had poison in it. Today, some of them have already died and many are fighting for their lives. We will continue to delete them from the face of the earth using any means we know. The soldiers are hungry. Their masters in Yaounde cannot sustain them. The population is hostile to them and this has left them with lots of butterflies in their stomachs.”

It is heartrending to know that things have declined to such levels where Cameroonians are today killing each other. This is the unfortunate legacy Mr. Biya is leaving for Cameroonians. Mr. Biya, once touted as the one person who could transform the country into a modern paradise, is today a nightmare that will not go away anytime soon. Cameroonians – Francophones and Anglophones – have always lived in peace, but the government’s corruption, nepotism and inefficiency have ruined the love and peace that once existed between these two linguistic groups.

From every indication, it will take a lot of time and talking for Cameroon to recover. Southern Cameroonians want to walk away from this union that Foncha and Muna said was made in Heaven. Today, it is clear that it was made in Hell and no Southern Cameroonian worthy of that name will ever trust such an agreement. It is flawed and it needs to be revisited. The Yaounde government has to understand that times have changed. The people will no longer bow to the president like angels do to God. The old days are gone and Southern Cameroonians are looking forward to the day they will live in their own country. They want to talk, but to talk about divorce issues. French-speaking Cameroonians can never be trusted. Their leaders are dictatorial. The people are docile. They have a huge capacity to bear pain. They have a culture of betraying people and it is hard to live with them. They have to bid Southern Cameroons farewell in the days ahead. The die is cast! They have to comply. Cameroon is not one and indivisible.

By Kingsley Betek

A Cameroon Concord News and Cameroon Intelligence Report Production

It has become commonplace in Yaoundé to say that there is no military solution to the conflict in Southern Cameroons. That claim invoked by many Cameroon government officials and Francophone political elites is simply to justify to the international community that the 85 year Paul Biya is interested in dialogue and preventing any international intervention that already seems to be on the way coming.

Any war has a military outcome, and in light of current trends in Southern Cameroons, that outcome could be a regime change in Yaoundé. To be sure, the outlines of the Biya regime’s strategy for winning the war are not in any form visible. What is actually visible is a strategy that hinges on Biya and his ruling CPDM crime syndicate staying in power, the recruitment of army soldiers, the killing of many innocent Southern Cameroonian civilians, the destruction of Southern Cameroons towns and villages while financing Cho Ayaba and CO. to encourage divisions within Ambazonian resistance forces. But an IG victory is possible — and that is what the Biya regime is afraid of.

Cameroon Intelligence Report can now reveal that the Biya regime is fighting the Southern Cameroons war under three strategic principles. The first strategy involves using whatever level of violence it believes is vital to defeat the armed Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces and break the will of its civilian supporters. No wonder, the implementation of this strategy has involved continuous burning of towns and villages and the killing of hundreds of innocent Southern Cameroons civilians in the face of increasing armed opposition in counties such as Manyu, Lebialem, Mezam, Ndian, Koupe Manenguba, Bui and Menchum. This principle accounts for Biya regime’s steady escalation in weapons used and in attacks on the civilian population. In line with its targeting of armed Ambazonian fighters and their civilian supporters alike, the French Cameroun army — after seizing an area formerly under Ambazonian control such as Dadi in Akawaya — kills armed militants and also engages in what are essentially reprisal attacks on area civilians: executions, looting, the burning of homes and businesses. Each village or town taken by the French Cameroun army serves as an example for the next village or town. Kendem, Muyenge, Dadi, Batibo, Nguti, Belo and Kwa Kwa have all been destroyed.

Biya regime’s second principle is to exploit diplomacy to prevent international support for the Interim Government of the people of Southern Cameroons while also avoiding political isolation. With the assistance of its allies, the French government, the Buhari administration in Nigeria and the current Africa Union Commission chair, Moussa Faki Mahamat who once served as Chadian ambassador to Cameroon, the regime has successfully fended off every diplomatic threat from the United States, the United Nations and the European Union including other opponents of the regime. It has played along with various dialogue initiatives as long as they did not impede its military operations in Southern Cameroons. Biya and his Francophone Beti-Ewondo regime are not interested in any form of dialogue that will see them surrender the key to Yaoundé, but rather to paint Southern Cameroonians as terrorists and keep their sympathizers out of the conflict.

The third Biya principle is to keep telling his story. In the Yaoundé regime’s political discourse, its army is fighting a war against “separatists” and the regime remains strong and cohesive. Using all available media, domestic and foreign, to further this narrative, Biya and his gang have increasingly succeeded in advancing perceptions of a growing terrorist threat in Southern Cameroons.

Biya’s goals are to reduce armed Ambazonians to a manageable terrorism problem, eliminate serious political opposition inside Southern Cameroons, and ultimately restore regime control throughout the country.  However, although the regime is not indicating a willingness to settle for less, the Francophone dominated government may be compelled to do so, given the scope of the Interim Government and Biya regime’s own resource limitations. Still, the regime is fighting to maintain at least a hold or influence in all Southern Cameroons counties. In the collective mind of Biya and his Francophone Beti Ewondo members, Cameroon should be one and indivisible — and theirs.

Mindful of whatever overconfidence the Yaoundé regime is presently projecting, certain political and military conditions are necessary for it to triumph. Political conditions include continued diplomatic support from its allies, continued divisions among Southern Cameroonians, and the continued absence of a consensus among African and European nations and allied states on forcefully dealing with the Biya regime.

Military conditions for Biya regime success include making sure that Southern Cameroonians in the Cameroon government army do not see this war from a different perspective and keeping the EU and the US away from the atrocities committed by army soldiers. While there are no guarantees, all these conditions seem unlikely to be met for the foreseeable future.

Biya is facing serious constraints, beginning with the limited size of his troops relative to the geographic scope of the Ambazonian resistance. It has also been extremely had for the Biya forces to pick its battles, fighting aggressively in some places and just holding on in others. A second, related concern has been the loss of regular forces through defection. Regime forces appear to have problems sustaining offensive operations. Even in Muyenge, Kwa Kwa and Otu, government forces failed to fully wrap up operations. There is one small thing, small but great and it is that Biya need to avoid antagonizing the French, whose critical support means the regime must listen to them on the conduct of the war. This was one of the major reasons the regime agreed to the deal to accept that the President of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, Sisiku Ayuk Tabe was in Yaoundé.

Despite present trends, victory is not certain for Mr. Biya and a number of game changers could halt or reverse the bloody situation on the ground. First, the Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces are now achieving effective coordination between their political and military components, allowing for an integrated approach to the war and development of a Southern Cameroons strategy for fighting it. Second, the Interim Government is also establishing effective command and control that would allow for integration and coordination of forces and their logistics, helping them confront the French Cameroun’s operations. Of vital importance is the fact that the Interim Government could receive enhanced military assistance: weapons, ammunition, training, intelligence, and advice. And above all, some form of direct foreign intervention could reduce the Biya’s advantages and effectiveness. The prospect for each of these options, however, appears dim at the moment. An improvement in the Ambazonian’ capability would thus likely have to emerge largely from the Interim Government’s own political and military resources. And probably the most important achievement for Ambazonians would be unity of effort, which under current circumstances would most likely be under the IG.

Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai