11, June 2018
Why Akere Muna, the NOW Movement and Joshua Osih will lose the French Camroun 2018 Presidential Elections 0
As it’s often said *’Politics is local’*. It is indeed local.
*Cameroons Electoral Political History*
At the Reunification of Cameroon in 1961, The Southern Cameroons (later West Cameroon) was an electoral Constituency (within which contested the various Southern Cameroons Political Parties).
While LRC (East Cameroon) had three Constituencies that voted along these lines (The Grand North – Fulanis, The Centre South – Betis and the West- Bamileke & Bassa).
*Case Precedent – 1992 Presidential Elections*
The results of the 1992 Presidential Elections displayed the following patterns;
*SDF* – won in the North West, South West, Littoral & West Regions.
*CPDM* – won in the Centre, South, East & Far North Regions.
*UNDP* – won in the Adamawa & North Regions.
Ever since the 1992 Presidential Elections till present, all electoral results have reflected the above patterns.
While the CPDM made inroads into the SDFs & UNDPs Constituencies, both the SDF and UNDP were reduced to Regional Political Parties as seen in the recent Senatorial Elections with the SDF winning only 7 seats of 70 contested seats. While the CPDM won 63 on 70 seats and the UNDP failed to win a single seat.
*Electoral Data*
*SDF*
Looking at the recent Electoral historical data Joshua Osih the SDFs candidate is destined to win less than 15% of the vote. And with Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia his constituency not taking part in the elections, Joshua Osih and the SDF may retain less than 10% of the vote.
*NOW MOVEMENT*
With the *NOW MOVEMENT* taking part in the elections for the first time, not representing any political party and with Ambazonia, Akere Muna’s constituency not taking part in the elections, Akere Muna is destined to win less than 5% of the vote.
*The CPDM*
This leaves the CPDM party and its candidate to win the remainder of the vote with at least 75% and the other 5% being won by other smaller parties like Maurice Kamto’s MRC.
This is based on recent Electoral data in which the CPDM won 56 seats in all 8 Regions of LRC and 7 seats in one of the two Regions in Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia. The above analysis is based on recent empirical data.
*The Wild Card – A Presidential Coalition of Opposition Political Parties/Movements*
Recent electoral data doesn’t prevent the Opposition parties from forming a coalition if they stand a chance of defeating the ruling party CPDM.
Based on recent Coalition Electoral data this coalition will have as members the SDF (Joshua Osih), MRC (Maurice Kamto), NOW Movement (Akere Muna), CDU (Adamou Ndam Njoya), CPP (Kah Walla) and any other smaller political parties.
Of all the above candidates only Maurice Kamto is from LRC and the rest of the candidates are from Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia whose constituency will not be taking part in the elections and whose constituency represent about 20 – 25% of the electorate.
Based on recent Electoral data any coalition will need to win the Grand North constituency (Adamawa, North and Far North Regions) which is currently in the grasp of the CPDM.
It should be noted that the Grand North constituency is the most populated constituency from recent population census data.
The possible best results for any such coalition of Opposition parties will be 20 – 30% of the vote which still leaves the CPDM with an outright victory of 70% of the vote considering Cameroon only conducts a Single round of votes at the Presidential Elections.
*The Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia Question*
With Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia having declared her independence on 1st October 2017 and currently engage in a guerilla warfare with the LRC Military it is difficult to see how up to 20% of the electorate in this part of the country will vote.
Also the Ambazonia Interim Government has prohibited the conducting of any LRC Elections within Ambazonia. The continous displacement of the population of Ambazonia and the reign of terror being executed on these populations by Military Forces from LRC indicates the majority of the populations of Ambazonia are in no mode to take part in elections being organised by a Government who has inflicted so much pain and terror on them.
*Reasons for Outright Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia Restoration of Independence*
The SDF was formed in 1990 with sole mission to restore the former State of West Cameroon. However with citizens from LRC taking much interest in the SDF party, the SDF NEC decided to take a shot at capturing the Presidency of LRC. The SDF candidate at the 1992 Presidential Elections John Fru Ndi came a close second with 36% of the vote, while Paul Biya of the CPDM won with 39% of the votes.
Ever since then the SDF has seen its electoral fortunes reduced and confined to the North West Region giving it a Regional party rather than National party status. This has convinced the majority of Southern Cameroonians/Ambazonians that the only option left to them is to support the Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia Interim Government to enable it restore the Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia’s Autonomy as was the case In 1961.
*Summary*
Based on the above analysis and recent electoral data, it is difficult to assume or predict how either Joshua Osih (SDF) or Akere Muna (NOW Movement) could win the 2018 LRC Presidential Elections.
However in politics nothing is permanent or predictable. I will conclude by stating in October 2018 (that is if the LRC Presidential Elections are held) the results will vindicate the above analysis.
By Oswald Tebit
The opinions expressed here are NOT that of the Cameroon Concord News Group
11, June 2018
One and Indivisible Cameroon is Crumbling under Biya’s Watch 0
The Bamilekes, the Hausas, Fulanis, Sawa, Bassas, Fang, Beti and Ewondos are all feeling the pains deeply seeing the beautiful dream of a strong and proud United Republic of Cameroon-a country that was expected to stand tall in Sub Saharan Africa now losing its reason for being—an enlightened democracy and secure African state living in harmony with its neighbors.
Biya and his consortium of crime syndicates have destroyed the so-called One and Indivisible Cameroon. To be sure, Cameroon’s social fabric has been torn apart by political divisiveness and massive economic injustice against the people of Southern Cameroons now known as the Federal Republic of Ambazonia.
Today, what is left of the United Republic of Cameroon is a nation that is increasingly being isolated, degenerating into a garrison state with highly placed civil servants, politicians and businessmen moving around in gun proof cars, armoured vehicles and bullet proof helmets.
Cameroon is virtually crumbling under Paul Biya’s watch-a man who as head of state has served longest in this position. The one million dollar question is, where is Biya leading the people of Cameroon and what will be in store for Cameroonians tomorrow as the one and indivisible is now at a fateful cross-road and facing an uncertain future?
Pro-Biya comedians and Biya himself will disagree with Cameroon Concord News Group, but we of this publication are urging Biya to reflect on what the US ambassador Peter Barlerin told him lately and begin with a fast transition.
An American ambassador in any nation in the world is a very important figure. He represents a nation that has generously provided support to poorer countries including Cameroon all around the globe. It is the world’s most powerful nation. The Americans and even the French are now aware that Biya conveniently surrounded himself with a corrupt Francophone Beti Ewondo political elite— cabinet ministers with no morals, no compunction, and nothing but an insatiable lust for power and women. All of them are in their second or third marriages and they have all been consumed by their personal political agendas and absorbed in domestic corruption and intrigues.
Mr. Biya has several such ministers—among them Justice Minister, Laurent Esso, who had his first kids with a Southern Cameroonian woman but who endorsed the idea that Ambazonians were the enemy and made the call for indiscriminate killing that includes Southern Cameroons elderly people and its women and children and the destruction of its cities and its villages, its properties and its infrastructure.
Mr. Biya indeed has several such ministers- among them again is a National Education Minister,Nalova Lyonga, who during her time as Rector of the Buea University ordered soldiers to rape and kill innocent Southern Cameroons students and a Higher Education Minister, Fame Ndongo, who is out to stifle anything that is Anglo-Saxon in Cameroon—who even makes a mockery of the presence of English speaking Cameroonians in their one and indivisible Cameroon.
Biya has successfully enveloped himself in an ideological siege with a ghetto mentality and selective native juju precepts, supported by a blind chorus of CPDM MPs and Senators that only echoes his distorted tune. Biya and his gang have constantly manipulated Cameroonian public opinion with national security concerns and falsely connect security to genuine Southern Cameroons demands.
The 85 year-old French Cameroun dictator delights in facing an inept political opposition headed by the Social Democratic Front. With these lame Cameroonian opposition parties sitting on the fringes of political despair, they have now become easy to co-opt in support of Biya’s misguided domestic policies against Southern Cameroonians all in the name of national unity and patriotism.
Biya still boast about Cameroon’s economic prowess and he is still dreaming of his emergence 2030 initiative when in fact Cameroon’s economy as a whole is in a state of stagnation and a handful of CPDM billionaires such as Baba Danpullo control the financial heart of the nation while tens of thousands of families are scrambling to survive.
95 per cent of citizens in the One and Indivisible Cameroon are living in poverty—three quarters of whom are children—while millions of dollars was paid to President Buhari and the Nigerian DSS to abduct and extradite the Acting President of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia including top aides of his government. Tourism is diving, foreign investments are plunging, and the Southern Cameroons quest for independence is gaining momentum.
The corruption and criminality among top officials is staggering; more than 40 ministers, a prime minister, secretaries and CEO of state-owned companies have been convicted of crimes by the Special Criminal Court. Dozens more have been indicted, with some escaping to Europe and North America.
Biya has spent 37 years as head of state discriminating against Southern Cameroonians with his tribal government’s policy of unequal treatment, and then is now questioning Anglophone loyalty to the state of Cameroon.
Southern Cameroonian freedom fighters challenging Cameroon government troops in the Northern and Southern zones have revealed an open and bloody wound in the heart of the One and Indivisible Cameroonian society. This is a wound of a people sounding the alarm at what they feel is discrimination, marginalization and disregard of their needs. The United States and the European Union must take a good hard look at this Southern Cameroons wound.
Demographically, the country is facing a grave danger. Both Southern Cameroonians and French Cameroun citizens are leaving the country mainly for economic reasons and the lack of a prospect of ending the debilitating conflict in Southern Cameroons.
In particular, support for the war in Southern Cameroons is consistently trending downward in La Republique du Cameroun. Many French speaking Cameroonians now understand that Mr. Biya got it all wrong by declaring war against the Anglophone community.
Biya and his French Cameroun political elites have treated Southern Cameroonians like objects, to be used and abused. The Biya regime has violated Southern Cameroons human rights with brazen impunity and it will take decades for the wound to heal.
French speaking Cameroonians do not understand the meaning of being utterly overpowered by someone you have called “brother”, of having one’s house burnt down in the night, terrifying women and children, more than 77 villages destroyed and of losing the sense of having any control over one’s life. One would think that those who suffered during French government imposed policies such as La Prestation and La Cuvee (Force Labour) would treat others with care and sensitivity.
Cameroon Concord News Group does not intend to exempt Ambazonian militants of their role, but the actions of Biya and his Francophone ministers’ are inciting hostility and ultimately fostering violent extremism in Southern Cameroons. Biya’s errand boy Peter Mafany Musonge keeps using old and tired talking points about the situation in Southern Cameroons which have long been dismissed as empty, self-convincing gospel.
Biya has been speaking in support of decentralization, but he has never lifted a finger to advance it; Biya’s actions only point to the opposite direction. The children of Southern Cameroons both at home and abroad must determine their own destiny and not leave it to anybody not even the UN.
Time is not on Biya’s side, and even though Southern Cameroonians are suffering, violent extremism targeting French Cameroun will only increase. Without a carefully thought-out plan to gradually engage the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, Africa’s next civil war will indeed by Cameroon.
Ending the war in Southern Cameroons and accepting that two states came together in 1961 to form a Federal Republic of Cameroon is not a charitable gift to Ambazonians. Only by accepting Southern Cameroonians rights to a state of their own will French Cameroun starts enjoying peace and security again.
By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai