From the nation’s capital in Yaoundé, the political situation appear to be going well for the Biya Francophone regime that has deployed approximately 35,000 army soldiers in Southern Cameroons and has destroyed more than 72 Southern Cameroons towns and villages.

But the view deep inside the Federal Republic of Ambazonia tells a different story as some officials and Southern Cameroons opinion leaders recently told Senator Peter Mafany Musonge who is moonlighting as Chairman of the so-called Bilingualism and Multiculturalism Committee. The complete absence of a genuine political process to accompany the military onslaught going on in Southern Cameroons is instead driving all Ambazonian communities including Anglophone CPDM militants to consider allying with the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia.

Hon. Jua Pualinus has repeatedly sounded a note of caution that the arrogance being demonstrated by the Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo political elites who dominate Cameroon’s power base remains a grave mistake that could mean the end of the one and indivisible Cameroon.

To be sure, the military deployment and killings will end up achieving nothing. Consequently, the whole strategy put in place to counter the Southern Cameroons-Ambazonia uprising needs to be revisited and readdressed and the European Union and the United States should be part of the process.

The Biya French Cameroun military campaign currently going on makes it extremely difficult for both Cameroons to engage in any form of reconciliation after the war. Most of the key Southern Cameroons towns and cities such as Kumba, Bamenda, Mamfe, Mundemba, Tiko, Muyuka, Ndop, Nguti and Limbe are now increasingly unstable and vulnerable even to french speaking Cameroonians living in Southern Cameroons.

The killings in Dadi, Menka-Pinyin, Bekora in Ekondo Titi, Nguti, Belo, Mbalangi, Menji and Lewoh demonstrates the lack of strategy and reconciliation on the part of the 85 year old President Biya and his acolytes.  There are widespread killings in every Southern Cameroon County; militias are emerging day-by-day roaming the Southern Cameroons territory. More than 200,000 Southern Cameroonians have been expelled from their ancestral home and they can’t go back because of the atrocities of the Cameroon government forces.

Minister Paul Atanga Nji has made the security situation in Southern Cameroons even worse by creating armed militia groups in the Northern Zone that are presently encouraging a lot of sectarian violence and every Ambazonia tribe have started to reflect on the idea of rallying behind the Interim Government. Cameroon government security forces relative control in places such as Mamfe, Kumba, Ekok, Wum, Batibo, Widikum, Muyuka, Bali is fast melting away as restoration forces are now targeting traitors within the struggle. Traditional leaders themselves are echoing these fears.

Southern Cameroonians and their Interim Government don’t have faith in the crime syndicate in Yaoundé. The reason is simple: The Biya regime didn’t make a mistake once or twice. They keep repeating the same mistake over and over and the government after 57 years is yet to deliver any of its promises to Southern Cameroonians till now.

The political situation too in French Cameroun is fragile. A majority of Francophones are simply waiting for a liberator to get rid of Biya and his gangsters.  The demands of the Francophone army are no longer sustainable. Biya and his Francophone regime have used all its French tactics and have started adapting the Anglo-Saxon strategy to reduce the damage. Frankly speaking, French Cameroun is losing.

All attempts at trying to prevent Southern Cameroons from a further slide away from Cameroon government control have failed.  The revolution has indeed restore Ambazonian control over Southern Cameroons mindful of the fact that the toll in blood and treasure has been high.

People in the know and some insiders say the Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces have retained strategic control over Manyu, Lebialem, Ndian, Meme, Mezam, Menchum, Kupe Muanenguba and Boyo. Cameroon Intelligence Report sources in these areas say many of the weapons seized from Cameroon government forces ever since the war started are stored in the forest.

Across the border in Nigeria’s Cross River State, the Buhari administration is already feeling the pain of its poor reading of the crisis in Southern Cameroons.  Ekok, however, remains contested between the Manyu Warriors and Cameroon government army soldiers.

The horror which will come up after Biya finally falls from power in the October presidential elections will justify Washington Post claim that Africa’s next civil war may be Cameroon.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The United Nations and some renowned media houses in the West have started reporting on the deteriorating situation in Southern Cameroons barely two years into the conflict. Prof Patrice Nganang in a recent televised interview described the war in Southern Cameroons as an eroding stalemate in which the Ambazonian Interim Government and its Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces have not only been able to expand, but also consolidate, the territory they hold.

However, recent developments, including the barbaric attack by Cameroon government forces on a Hotel killing more than 30 unarmed Ambazonians in Menka-Pinyin are reminders of the need to assess the Southern Cameroons crisis in more than binary terms.  Frankly speaking, the picture painted by French Cameroun’s US-based Prof Patrice Nganang as eroding stalemate is morphing into an uglier, more complicated conflict, that may soon resemble the Rwandan civil war or even the present, intractable war in Libya, due to the absence of a holistic strategy by the French backed Biya regime and military escalation by Francophone army commanders.

Ever since the crisis started, the Trump administration has been consistently inconsistent with its dealing with the malicious regime in Yaoundé. First, it supplied the Biya Francophone regime with war equipment including two fighter jets mindful of a CIA report to the White House stating that Cameroon government troops combating the Nigerian Islamic sect, Boko Haram have all been moved from the Far North region and redeployed to Southern Cameroons. Secondly, Ambassador Peter Barlerin attacked the Interim Government of the people of Southern Cameroons saying that they were “…a very tiny minority of Cameroonian-born individuals living in the United States” responsible for the crisis in Cameroon. And then recently the US ambassador made a dramatic u turn and accused the Biya regime of “targeted killings” in Southern Cameroons. Peter Barlerin during an audience with Mr. Biya advised the 85 year old tyrant to step aside.

Judging from this regular change of the United States position, it is evidently clear that the West does not have a solution to the Southern Cameroons crisis. The US and their European allies have notionally embraced the modest aims of the French government and the Biya regime: the elimination of transnational terrorism threats and weakening of Boko Haram that it feels compelled to ignore the numerous Biya excesses. Toward this, the Trump administration and the European Union have allowed Biya to expand Yaounde’s use of blunt military force against Southern Cameroonians, a targeted increase in troop’s presence in Southern Cameroons, and various forms of diplomatic pressure on Nigeria hosting more than 40,000 Southern Cameroons refugees.

The presence of US forces in the North of Cameroon and the numerous military donations from the US government to the Cameroon army may be view as less charitably. For some time now, the US has been seeking to know what the Russians and President Putin are doing in the Central African Republic, CAR. Russia is currently supplying the Bangui government with arms under UN approval and Russia has several military advisers stationed in the war torn country. CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has been to Moscow twice recently and this is disturbing to the French and the US.

Let us, however, assume that US’s aims in Cameroon are indeed limited to destroying Boko Haram and the so-called Islamic State of West Africa. Even with these modest goals in mind, the grim reality may be that the Trump administration is giving Biya another chance as head of state in Cameroon that he actually doesn’t really have. And as a result of its military-first strategy, the United States will end up making things worse in both French and Southern Cameroons.

The US has erroneously joined the self-perpetuating ecosystem of violence in Cameroon. It rejects the 85 year old leader, Paul Biya but empowers his war machinery that is helping to breathe life into the CPDM crime syndicate. The Cameroon government army is a Francophone Fulani- Beti- Ewondo army and these warlords have abused the local populace in Southern Cameroons, kidnapped young boys and girls, making them into sex slaves and killed hundreds.

The supposed gains made by Cameroon government forces in Buea and Bamenda in recent months are easily reversible once the Interim Government starts attracting international partners. Correspondingly, the Cameroon government military would collapse if the Southern Cameroons crisis drags for another year.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The French Cameroun despot sent army soldiers to burn down villages and towns in Southern Cameroons and to kill hundreds of Ambazonian civilians as his hated regime looked increasingly likely to fall.  Biya is resorting to sorties by his still ill-equipped ground forces to resist what appears to be the final gambit of a senseless war he orchestrated against the people of Southern Cameroons.

After two years of fighting to crush the Southern Cameroons resistance and a death toll of nearly 2000, a combination of political errors, international isolation from the Trump administration and a well-organized Ambazonia Self-Defense Council Restoration Force, we of the Cameroon Concord News Group can now say Biya’s days look numbered. Only reticence in France about the prospect of an Anglophone taking over in Yaoundé appears to be holding back a CIA-French intervention as witnessed in places such as Libya and Zaire.

The genocide currently going on in Southern Cameroons has enabled the opponents of the Biya regime in Yaoundé to secure US support for regime change.  Earlier last week, it was rumored that the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia has recorded a major diplomatic breakthrough deep within the US Congress for the restoration of the state of Ambazonia.

There are fears in some capitals within the Sub Saharan and CEMAC region that without a regime change in Yaoundé thousands more will die. Yet the Biya Francophone Minister of Communication and so-called Cameroon government spokesman, Issa Tchiroma Bakary continues to blame the killings and sufferings of Southern Cameroonians on the Interim Government and the Southern Cameroons Diaspora.

Signs of a stranglehold being tightened on the Biya regime could be seen recently with the US ambassador Peter Barlerin stating that the two US warplanes handed over to the Francophone dominated army should be used only to counter Boko Haram insurgency.

A number of Nigerians have been killed on Southern Cameroons soil since the revolution started and Abuja is slowly but surely moving away from Biya, but Nigerian ailing President Buhari maintains the strategy is not a step towards intervention in Cameroon’s domestic affairs.  Cameroon government forces have continued to kill innocent Southern Cameroonian citizens in both the Northern and Southern Zones. The army also fired bullets at several villagers in nearby Bamenda suburb of Santa.

As well as the growing Southern Cameroons challenge, Biya faces an alliance of young Western-backed militants of his ruling CPDM crime syndicate who have openly stated that he should step aside.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

Again, again and again unfortunate Southern Cameroons civilians are trapped in the hell on earth that the Ambazonia liberation war has become. A latest report puts civilian deaths at 1600 and thousands wounded under the heavy assault launched by President Biya’s Rapid Intervention Battalion Forces.

Recently it was the turn of residents of Menka in the Santa Sub constituency some few km west of Bamenda the capital of the Northern Zone.  From every indication, conditions in Southern Cameroons are getting worse, and there is no end to the Ambazonia conflict.

The end to any violent conflict comes when either the warring sides realise the devastation they cause and make peace; outside intervention sways the warring parties to end the conflict; or there are clear winners delivering a crushing defeat to their enemies.

The 85 year old French Cameroon dictator does not seem to care about the devastation of the two-year war. Almost 97 rural communities in Southern Cameroons is rubble — more than 1600 Ambazonians have died, there are 40,000 Ambazonian refugees in Nigeria and some 160,000 internally displaced. Unfortunately, the dialogue option seems highly unlikely with Biya still in power. There has not been any international intervention through peace initiatives and France’s unconditional and active support of the Biya regime is hampering any attempt at negotiating a truce.

Since the conflict began, many Southern Cameroons resistance groups have sporadically emerged. Although most of them later merged into the larger entity-the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, there are still some small groups. Their inclusion in the Interim Government has been problematic causing the West to think that it is unclear who actually represents Southern Cameroons.

All along, Mr Biya’s regime has been claiming it is fighting separatists and terrorists groups in Southern Cameroons.  French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing Mr Biya and Nigeria’s Buhari to wipe out these groups, spurred by the deep fear they could mobilise radical Biafra groups within Nigeria’s borders.

The European Union doesn’t want Mr Biya, but they love his argument of protecting a one and indivisible Cameroon. So, the lack of an international intervention and the impossibility of Biya sitting down to negotiate with the Interim Government, leaves only the option of fighting it out until clear victors emerge. This leaves the Biya regime with a free run to assert itself by killing as many Southern Cameroonians as possible.

This is the strategic line the Biya regime has drawn thick on the ground and it explains why Biya and his political gang have ignored calls for a ceasefire. Biya and the French government had hope for a quick and absolute victory, even if it is a bloodbath. But the pattern of the war will eventually see the collapse of the Cameroon army.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The situation in Cameroon’s two English-speaking regions has continued to deteriorate following the slaughtering of some 20 young men and women in Menka-Pinyin last Thursday following a violent attack by government forces that have been seeking to prove that they are actually rolling back the Southern Cameroonian fighters who have won hearts and minds in the entire Southern Cameroons.

Government action over the last 18 months has come under intense criticism both at home and abroad, as Yaounde authorities continue to behave like gangsters instead of disciplined officials who should, at any moment, seek to work out things through dialogue.

The Yaounde government, led by Paul Biya, has never taken time to investigate any killings. All it has always done is to resort to collective punishment wherein the houses of innocent civilians are razed, and innocent youths are gunned down point blank. The actions of the country’s armed forces have created more fighters over the last six months, as ordinary civilians – both boys and girls – now believe they have to defend themselves against a military that is using their tax money to murder the people they are supposed to protect.

Southern Cameroonians have been calling for international assistance. They now want the world to protect them against their supposed protectors. The government’s mass murdering tactics and collective punishment have drawn a lot of flak in recent times and even the Trump Administration has been disappointed by the methods the dictatorial government in Yaounde is using to restore order in the two restive English-speaking regions of the country.

Thursday’s murders came on the heels of a scathing criticism of the reckless Yaounde regime by the U.S. Ambassador, Peter Barlerin, who used his audience with the country’s president, Paul Biya, to call for an end to the senseless and targeted killings in the two English-speaking regions.

Mr. Barlerin also used the occasion to call on Mr. Biya to think of his legacy, a coded way of telling the Yaounde dictator not to run in the upcoming presidential election. It should be recalled that the Americans have a way of advising their erstwhile friends to quit power. Mr. Barlerin is simply walking in the steps of other American ambassadors who hold that governments must be accountable to their people.

In the early 90s, the American Ambassador to Zaire, Bill Richardson, had advised Mubutu to quit power and that if he did not act accordingly, he would be humiliated and this actually came to pass. A few months after that friendly advice, Zaire unravelled and the “Leopard of Zaire”, another name for Mr. Mubutu, was chased out of power by a ragtag military that had the support and blessing of Western countries.

The American ambassador’s advice has not been taken lightly and kindly by supporters of the beleaguered government. Government surrogates have been all over the country and on TV channels to belittle the ambassador whose advice should be taken seriously. Americans are not only friends when they give Cameroon their money and arms for them to fight Boko Haram. Good friends should also call their friends to reason and that is what Ambassador Barlerin is doing.

The pressure on the government and its supporters is mounting and it is clear that the Biya regime is running out of time and patience, especially as the deadline given by the Southern Cameroons Interim Government will be expiring in four days. The tough guy appearance that government official had at the beginning of the Southern Cameroons crisis seems to be melting. Government officials who caused the crisis to escalate are today staying away from the spotlight. Fame Ndongo, Laurent Esso and Issa Tchiroma are all keeping a very low profile as they know they are to blame for the gory genocide that is playing out in Southern Cameroons.

Amnesty International and the International Crisis Group have also been very vocal against the Yaounde government’s irresponsible actions. For the past six months, the government of Cameroon has been working hard to wipe off villages from its own map through a scorch-earth policy that many in the international community have frowned upon. Amnesty International and the International Crisis Group have all called the government’s action against Southern Cameroonians into questions. The world has been taken aback by the government’s commitment of such human rights abuses.

Kwakwa, Mbonge, Etoko and Kembong in the South West region have been rolled back into the 10^th Century by the government. Its plan was to intimidate the people into submission, but the strategy has so far been counter-productive. In Kwakwa, many old people were burnt alive by government forces as a move to punish the entire population for the killing of an army soldier by some unknown and unidentified gunmen.

Other villages have also experienced the government’s wrath and frustration with a rebellion it felt it could put out in one single military action. Mbonge, Bali and Batibo have all been victims of the Yaounde government’s malicious policy designed to stamp out any opposition.

Terrorism has become the buzzword in Cameroon and anybody who holds a view that is contrary to the government’s is considered a terrorist. This is a new tool it is using to stamp out opposition, but times have changed, and the people of Southern Cameroons are clearly resisting a government they believe is corrupt to the marrow and inefficient.

Last week, in trying to sway national and international opinion, the military on Friday rushed its spokesperson to deliver an unconvincing explanation for such acts of brutality by a military that has reduced itself to the level of a ragtag army. A flimsy explanation by the country’s military spokesperson, Colonel Didier Badjeck, has left many in the international community with the feeling that Mr. Biya and his government do not want a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Colonel Didier Badjeck has, on many occasions, been caught lying and his explanation has been ripped apart by experts who have demonstrated that the government has run out of options to check the revolution. Many pointed to the lack of evidence and the inconsistencies in Colonel Didier Badjeck’s explanations.  The government is yet to show any arms the suspects had used or any evidence that they were plotting anything sinister. Killing innocent young men has been its modus operandi and this is eroding its credibility in the eyes of some members of the international community who are already questioning why the UN is not intervening to end the bloodbath.

As the blood continues to flow, it is alleged that recent massacres are being masterminded by the country’s territorial administration minister, Paul Atanga Nji, himself a Southern Cameroonian, who wants to prove to his Yaounde masters that he is up to the task. This week has actually been a bloody one. It is like the hunting season has been opened and the blood has been flowing like a stream.

Both parties have been mourning. On Sunday, May 27, 2018, the government shipped 67 military corpses to many towns in the country. The 67 corpses are those of servicemen brought down by tough Southern Cameroonian fighters. The government has been reluctant to publicly acknowledge that its servicemen have been killed by the bullets of Southern Cameroonian fighters.

The government is gradually recognizing that keeping those deaths under wraps will not tell its story and pain in the most succinct manner. The intense global condemnation of the last week is gradually becoming a call for a change in strategy. In a bit to play the victim, the government is admitting that some servicemen had been killed in combat in the jungles and mountains of Southern Cameroons. But this new strategy could be counter-productive. The Francophone majority might start asking questions which could bring more trouble to the already beleaguered country.  

Southern Cameroonian fighters seem to be making very bold statements that are making the government to be ill at ease. This may be why the government had to make a statement of intent on Thursday to tell the fighters that the government will match fire for fire. Many Southern Cameroonians hold that the Menka-Pinyin massacre is Mr. Atanga Nji’s handiwork. It is alleged that he planned and ordered government forces to use conventional explosives on innocent civilians. This has been decried by a  senior Roman Catholic clergy who is concerned about the road the country has taken over the last two years. It should be mentioned that the Catholic church on Thursday, May 24, organized a protest march against the killing of innocent people in the country’s English-speaking regions.

Some members of the international community have also started talking albeit in private. According to a United Nations official who spoke to Cameroon Concord News Group on condition of anonymity, the Biya era is quietly coming to an end and actions by the government are simply making it hard for any reasonable person to have any respect for the 85-year-old Biya who erroneously thinks the country belongs to him.

“A country cannot belong to anybody. Mr. Biya is making the same mistakes Mr. Mubutu of Zaire made; mistakes that let to his destruction. Mr. Biya should be looking into the mirror of history in order to avoid such dumb mistakes. At 85, he should know that his days are numbered and it is in his interest to think about living Cameroon a better place than he met it,” he said.

“Mr. Biya should be listening to his conscience. He has lost credibility. Within international circles, many people have nothing but disrespect for him. He has failed and he is a disgrace to a country like Cameroon that has lots of intellectuals. He should understand that he has had more than his fair share of power even when he has never won any election. There is no way he is going to win this war. The actions of his military are simply fueling violence. Southern Cameroonians will surely resort to more kidnappings as a way of venting their anger. They will also be killing innocent soldiers and policemen who are even against the war. It is really unfortunate that many young soldiers are losing their lives for a man who is just a few meters away from his grave,” the international civil servant said.

But it is the order of the Southern Cameroons Interim Government that is keep many people awake, including the government which has no plan to protect French-speaking Cameroonians living in Southern Cameroons. The situation is critical and many people are living in fear. Some families have already moved leaving behind all their personal belongings and assets. So far, the government has not made any statement to reassure the population.

While Cameroon government officials are still trying to embezzle what ever little money is still in the government’s coffers, Southern Cameroonian fighters, for their part, are busy fine-tuning their strategies to root out all illegal aliens from the new republic. The fighters know that their actions will finally attract the attention of the international community that has been less enthusiastic about what is happening in the Central African country.

In a reaction to the Interim Government’s order, a young Red Dragon fighter who has been in the jungles of Lebialem for more than six months said that “Francophones have an interest to comply with what the Interim Government has said. We are running out of patience and will surely be staging a show that will shock the world once the deadline expires.”

He added that “Let nobody think this is an empty threat. We have seen our brothers and sisters being killed by government forces and we are ready to revenge. There will be a bloodbath after the expiry of the Interim Government’s order. We have faith in our Interim Government and we will do all what it takes to ensure that the laws of the land are respected. If the Yaounde government thinks this is a joke, then it has not yet understood that it has a huge crisis on its hands. We are prepared to die. We have been enslaved for decades and now is the time to liberate our land. We have never thought that independence will come easy. We know it is never delivered on a platter of gold. We are aware of what happened to Eritrea, South Sudan and even in faraway Timor Leste. We are well read. We are also university graduates, but the government’s decision to declare a war on us will turn out to be its greatest undoing. If the world is still on the sidelines, then it really wants to play spectator to a Rwanda-style genocide at the end of the month. We will be staging a massive show that will shock everybody. We never asked for this war. It was imposed on us and we will do all in our power to end the oppression that has been ours for decades.”

The situation is concerning. It is just a quarter of a century since the world witnessed a huge genocide in Rwanda and it had vowed not to let that happen again. But its indifference to what is playing out in Cameroon could lead to a repeat of what happened in Rwanda in the early 90s.

The government knows it has a huge crisis on its hands. It has seen many soldiers who have been killed by Southern Cameroonian fighters and it knows that even with the less sophisticated weapons used by Southern Cameroonians fighters, they are still capable of wreaking havoc.

While senior government officials are still trying to put on a brave face, many in the corridors of power are already very concerned. Southern Cameroonians have put up a good show beyond everybody’s wildest imagination and their determination is being admired by many French-speaking Cameroonians. But their recent move to chase French-speaking Cameroonians out of their land spells a huge disaster for the government.

For months, the government has been indifferent to calls for an inclusive dialogue. Ever since the crisis started, the country’s president, Paul Biya, also known as the owner of the country, has refused to listen to many respectable voices across the world. The Pope has had an opportunity to talk to Mr. Biya. Leaders of Western Countries have advised him to pursue dialogue as a sure means out of the impasse. The African Union has once offered to mediate.

But he has remained tone deaf to these calls and his refusal is costing many lives. He too is putting a brave face, but American pressure seems to be paying off. Behind the scenes, the pennies seem to be dropping. The government wants to talk, but it has not got an interlocutor. It had arrested and delegitimized federalists in 2017. In 2018, Southern Cameroonian leaders were kidnapped in Nigeria and brought to Yaounde where they are being held incommunicado. Those are the people the government should be talking to if it has developed the right mind that can bring peace to the country.

Time is running out. The situation is spiraling out of control. Mr. Biya is losing support even within his own party. The Southern Cameroons crisis is surely that explosive that will expose the fragile unity in the ruling party. The dissenting voices are increasing and the pressure on Mr. Biya is mounting. Some ruling party members hold that if Mr. Biya steps down, there could be a possibility for a negotiated settlement. Many ruling party members do not like the country to be split, but the manner in which Mr. Biya and his cohorts have handled the Southern Cameroons crisis leaves many of his supporters with no other option but to ask him to leave power.

There is still time for all the parties to head to the negotiating table. The government cannot continue to behave as if it is not affected by the crisis. Its economy has been hurt. Its credibility has been eroded. Many soldiers have been killed and many young and innocent Southern Cameroonians are losing their lives due to a crisis that could have been averted.

The government must play its role. It must work hard to foster dialogue and promote transparency in the management of state affairs. The current crisis is the outcome of many years of frustration on the part of Southern Cameroonians who have been marginalized for 56 years.

The issues may be challenging and thorny, but they could be addressed if the good will is there. Mr. Biya still has a little time to salvage whatever little credibility he has if he comes out boldly to announce an inclusive dialogue that will lead to a peaceful resolution of all the grievances that Southern Cameroonians have expressed. The ball is in the government’s court!

By Kingsley Betek 

Last week, the political atmosphere in Yaoundé grew a little more tense. For the first time in his 36 years as head of state, President Biya received a verbal missile fired by the US ambassador Peter Barlerin at Yaoundé. Cameroon Intelligence Report understands no one was injured at the Unity Palace even though Francophone political commentators and CPDM cronies including some pro-Biya comedians have openly suggested the attack was tantamount to an act of war by the US.

The Interim Government of Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia claims that the Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo government is carrying out genocide in West Cameroon with its troops burning and destroying Southern Cameroons towns and villages.  The U.S. ambassador to Cameroon, Peter Barlerin, backed the claim during a fiery meeting with the 85 year-old President Biya.

The US recently put a smile on Biya’s face by donating two sophisticated fighter jets and repeatedly warned that the planes were only to be used to counter Boko Haram incursions in the Far North region of the country.

In the short term, this latest salvo fired by Ambassador Peter Barlerin probably won’t result in any kind of direct conflict between Yaoundé and Washington. (Though it will, undoubtedly, result in the collapse of the Biya regime.) However, it will only deepen the friction between Yaoundé and the Western nations that have been supporting Biya for more than three decades. The pronouncements by some Biya loyalists including Communications Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Foreign Affairs Minister Mbella Mbella have made the situation very much intractable. Here are some important ways to understand the Yaounde-Washington disputes and suspicions:

The US fears that Cameroon is heading towards disintegration and that may have a spill over effect in neighboring countries such as Chad and Gabon including Congo Brazzaville. It’s true that Washington and Yaoundé have never been on opposite sides of international politics but the rift presently going on is an indication that Biya has overstayed his time.

The war against Boko Haram and the global war on terror have certainly informed the domestic and foreign policy priorities of both the United States and Cameroon. Both countries established solid bi-lateral relations and have been sharing intelligence. But Ambassador Barlerin’s advice to Biya isn’t simply, or even primarily statements that can be ignored. It is abundantly clear that the Trump and Emmanuel Macron administrations agreed on what the ambassador had to tell Biya.

Biya’s poor management of the crisis in Southern Cameroons spawned the tensions between Washington and Yaoundé. But the atrocities being committed by French Cameroun army soldiers in Southern Cameroons played a big role in creating the hostile environment we see today.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

While we’re all waiting for President Trump to start the process of ousting Biya, Cameroon Concord News Group have spotted that the Biya Southern Cameroons war map has substantially and bloodily changed.  The Ambazonia Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces have been steadily advancing on French Cameroun government positions in both the Northern and the Southern Zones.

Two years ago, our senior correspondent Kingsley Betek met with one of the Manyu Odeshi leader, who was commanding a few Southern Cameroons self-defense soldiers in a small suburb of Mamfe.  At the time, he showed Betek his map saying we will get to Buea in less than 5 years.

And then this year, Kingsley Betek met him again in Egbekaw and he said the Ambazonian fighters are going to enter Buea any time before the end of October 2018. Betek reminded him of the presence of Cameroon government forces in all the major towns and villages in Southern Cameroons. That should not bother you, he said. “In the early days of the resistance, we were using the ghost town operations and the Francophone army was executing our women and children. Now we are engaging them to fight in a guerrilla war. The French Cameroun army was trained to kill innocent civilians and protect Biya. Now they are fighting their first real war.”

Indeed they are. The Odeshi commander turned out to be almost dead on target. With the support of the powerful Lebialem Dragons, the Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces are heading towards Buea. Biya regime forces are abandoning the rural areas and what has always been unthinkable in Yaounde is now happening: The forces of the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia look to be winning the war.

The Americans already seem to have gotten the message and have appealed to President Biya to step down. The Americans are also playing up war crimes in Southern Cameroons and condemning Biya’s pointless attacks on Southern Cameroonian towns and villages.

And what about the French? Here is a European and world power which truly counted on Biya crushing Southern Cameroonians in less than a month.  No wonder French President Emmanuel Macron was instrumental in the arrest and extradition of the President of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, Sisiku Ayuk Julius from Abuja to Yaounde. Following Ambassador Peter Barlerin’s  Biya declaration, the French government is  so agitated and emotional. The French now know that the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia is by extrapolation the United States in Southern Cameroons.

The repeated victories of the Ambazonian Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces mean that the Southern Cameroons resistance army is among the most battle-hardened in Sub Sahara Africa. Biya clearly never imagined that Southern Cameroonians might win, and that a more powerful Southern Cameroons army might also emerge from the rubble of Manyu, Lebialem, Belo and Muyenge.

The French still support Biya, but neither the US nor UK nor Germany nor Buhari of Nigeria has any interest in supporting Biya’s continued stay in power.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

President Biya’s time as head of state is now short. To be sure, the Cameroonian dictator is a dead man walking according to recent statements made by the US ambassador to Yaoundé, Peter Barlerin, a view shared by many in the ruling CPDM Central Committee and predicted by senior French Cameroun political experts. The 85 year old leader has survived almost 2 years of Southern Cameroons demonstrations and growing violence, and if not pushed by the US and the French including some outside actors he may yet cling to power in the upcoming so-called presidential elections.

It’s easy to see why many Cameroonians think Ambassador Peter Barlerin’s pronouncement indicates that Biya’s time might be up. Despite the killings of over 1,000 Southern Cameroons protesters and the arrests of thousands more, Southern Cameroonians have bravely defied the Yaoundé regime, which now seems unable to bully them into submission.

As the Southern Cameroons resistance has stood strong, Biya’s international support has plummeted. But for the French, the CPDM regime would have been a thing of the past. Although the world is actually not doing anything as Biya regime forces continue to gun down innocent Southern Cameroonian civilians, Ambassador Peter Barlerin’s recent comments is a clear indication that the time has come for Mr. Paul Biya to step aside.

The United States chief diplomat in Cameroon has repeatedly called for genuine and inclusive dialogue and has offered himself to try to broker a deal for Biya to speak with the Ambazonian leadership.  Biya has constantly scorns these calls and consequently his cash-strapped regime will soon find it harder to pay its tribal security services. Rather than kill innocent Southern Cameroonians, several soldiers have defected from the Cameroon army. Cameroon Concord News Group gathered that the pace is escalating at catastrophic rapidity, and many more French Cameroun army soldiers are now confined to barracks in Buea and Douala because the Biya regime doesn’t trust them. The Ambazonia Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces is apparently controlled largely by defectors and it is getting stronger and is now operating freely in the various Southern Cameroons counties.

The US ambassador’s killer punch has hit the Yaoundé regime hard, but Biya has neither bent nor broken — and he still has a number of serious assets  including the French government, the CEMAC countries and mighty Nigeria on his side of the equation.

Looking at the loyalty of the military and security services, the Southern Cameroons Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces is getting stronger, but it lacks long or short range missiles and other heavy weapons. So it finds it difficult to hold territories. The Francophone regime is still stronger than the Southern Cameroons Interim Government. The presidential guard and a huge regiment of ground forces particularly those from the Far North region recruited by the ailing Vice Prime Minister Amadou Ali during his time at the defense ministry are still loyal, and Biya’s blood relations and kinsmen hold key positions in the Cameroon government. The overwhelming majority of the officers are Francophone Cameroonians and nearly every family from Biya’s ruling tribes the Beti-Ewondo have at least one member in the security service.

The Far North region again is a strong base for the regime: It is well armed, mobilized, and fearful that the fall of Biya might invoke a nasty past that led to the killing of hundreds of soldiers from the North region headquartered in Garoua immediately after the April 6^th coup in 1984. The regime has created militias along with military forces, using them as thugs and snipers against Southern Cameroonian citizens. As the violence escalates, sectarian killing increases too. Deep within the Biya regime the military hierarchy and Biya acolytes eat first; the funny SDF opposition eats last.  The French government via its multinationals is giving the Biya regime an economic lifeline and enough bullets to keep shooting down Southern Cameroonians and is blocking international efforts by the Ambazonian Interim Government to isolate the regime.

The biggest hope for Biya now is the disorganization created by some of the Southern Cameroons resistance figures group under an obscure organization known as the Ambazonia Recognition and Collaborative Council. There is no charismatic leader among the trio but their main goal is to attack the legitimate Interim Government of the people of Southern Cameroons. Not surprisingly, there are sharp divisions between those on Ground Zero bearing the brunt of the Biya regime’s brutality and those who live safely outside Southern Cameroons and represent the struggle abroad. So far at least, the Interim Government enjoys some sympathy from the international community but no active support from major powers such as the US and Britain.

To be accurate, the French Cameroun dictator is not strong enough to subdue the Ambazonian resistance and quest for an independent state, but Ambazonians are not just strong enough to defend the Southern Cameroons territory — a scenario for continued fighting and killing.

If Southern Cameroonians are to pull out of the Cameroon federation, they need a push from the international community. Particularly important is the effort to build up a Southern Cameroons army: uniting it and training its officers so they can be more effective in battle. At the same time, the Interim Government must avoid the distractions coming from the so-called Ambazonia Recognition and Collaborative Council at all costs.

The IG should continue pushing for a UN and EU intervention to be on the table to signal that the international community is aware of the genocide going on in Southern Cameroons.  U.S. and European Union rhetoric should warn that military option will grow more likely if Biya doesn’t step down. The US ambassador should continue ratcheting up the pressure as this will help convince CPDM loyalists that the regime cannot weather the storm and that they need to abandon ship now — rather than do so when bombs starts dropping in Yaoundé. Only this forceful effort started by Ambassador Peter Barlerin will end the rule of the man who has been walking his people into a nightmare. Any less will see the bloodshed continue indefinitely, possibly sucking in neighboring states like Nigeria.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The revelation is as sobering as it is shocking-the beheading of Southern Cameroons women and children by army soldiers deployed to the region by President Paul Biya. Every Southern Cameroonian family has had firsthand experience with violence. The Manyus, Bangwas, Mettas, Balis, Nso, Orokos, Bafaws, Bakweri, Bakossi, Aghen and others are sharing similar insights, shaped in no small part by a bitter dose of realism. There are no prescribed remedies to the imploding situation in Southern Cameroons/Ambazonia. Will thousands more Southern Cameroonians die to show that Biya can no longer rule over La Republique du Cameroun?

Unlike the other East African leaders who are mindful of human suffering and have been working hard to seek an end to the conflict in South Sudan, the regional and international partners involved in Southern Cameroons have proven to be terribly insensitive and they clearly don’t care how their silence is harming ordinary Southern Cameroonians.

We of the Cameroon Concord News Group believe and fervently too that the choice was clear from the very beginning of the Southern Cameroons crisis two years ago: sacrifice Biya to save the so-called one and indivisible Cameroon, or sacrifice the one and indivisible Cameroon to save Biya. The Francophone regime embraced the latter to preserve itself and hundreds of Southern Cameroonians are dying in the process. No regrets, no hesitation. None whatsoever.

When the first French Cameroun military onslaught failed, an Anglophone criminal, Paul Atanga Nji was appointed Minister of Territorial Administration and was ordered to step in to save the Biya regime, and in the current process many more are dying. No worry, no sorry. None.

The Minister Atanga Nji’s effort has already failed, and the Biya regime continues to bleed. The French and the Americans have now stepped in under the same pretext: Only by saving Biya could Boko Haram and terrorism be defeated and the one and indivisible Cameroon saved, contends US Ambassador Peter Barlerin.

So, will thousands more Southern Cameroonians die to show that Biya can no longer rule over La Republique du Cameroun?

Ever since the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres decided to back off from the crisis in Southern Cameroons, the international community has argued, rather poorly, that it was in Cameroon’s best interest not to interfere and that outside involvement was no remedy for the country’s political problems.

But instead of putting the US’ weight behind a political solution through talks with the Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, the US ambassador gave Biya the license to continue killing Southern Cameroonians.  The Biya Francophone regime with French government support has transformed the crisis in Southern Cameroons into a renewed so-called war on terror where Buhari of Nigeria and Chad’s Idris Deby are privileged members.

Yaoundé will discover, sooner rather than later, that it can’t succeed in this senseless military campaign. The only achievement in the process is simply that many more will die in vain. Such scenario will prove most costly to French Cameroonians too as the country continues to fall apart.  If the Federal Republic of Nigeria continues to play innocent and Europeans and Americans continue to play catch up, Biya’s foul play is sure to pave the way for another bitter and bloody chapter in the history of the two Cameroons.

It’s evidently clear at this point in time that there are no good options for Biya; that the sweetest among all plausible scenarios is bitter and it is that President Biya should step aside.

Indeed, the last two years of turmoil in Southern Cameroons, like the previous 36 years of Biya’s dictatorship, have taught both French and Southern Cameroonians that the bloodier the change, the worse the outcome, and the longer the wait, the more complicated the change.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The crisis in Southern Cameroons is now in its second year and the spark that led Cameroon down the fiery rabbit hole of the Anglophone revolution is still much alive and active. Frankly speaking, a lack of leadership in Yaoundé, Abuja and the African Union allowed the peaceful strike action led by Anglophone teachers and lawyers to metastasis into a horrific violent conflict, providing an opportunity for the powerful Anglophone Cameroon Diaspora to come in and initiate a struggle that is ending up with the creation of Africa’s newest nation-the Federal Republic of Ambazonia.

The one million dollar question is, does it represent a policy shift by the UN/Buhari administrations based on the notion of a shared common objective with Paris in Cameroon? Either way, it has blown a violent wind into the boats of those who argue that President Paul Biya should remain in power as a check against anti French forces in the CEMAC region.

There are indeed several controversies with that argument and most glaringly is the fact that it ignores the war crimes and other atrocities committed by the Biya regime. That long and horrific list includes helicopter gunboat attacks, mass killings, mass graves and the targeting of hospitals and schools, not to mention the arrest and torture of hundreds of Southern Cameroonians. Keeping Biya in power is undermining France’s credibility and core values including those of the United States.

We of the Cameroon Concord News Group can now reveal that Mr. Paul Biya doesn’t have the military capability to hold Cameroon together. The case of the Far North region abandoned by the army following massive deployments to Southern Cameroons serves as an illustrative example. Ever since the crisis in Southern Cameroons started, the Far North region has seen several deadly attacks carried out by the Nigerian Islamic sect, Boko Haram. Although Cameroon government’s forces have repeatedly claimed that the terrorist group has been defeated, they have been unable to secure the Far North while engaged in their assault against Ambazonia Self-Defense Council Restoration Forces. The situation is also true in the Central African Republic as attacks are now rampant in areas under the control of the Cameroon army and the gendarmerie.

To be accurate, what’s left of the French Cameroun army is an empty shell, precariously held together by France, the US and Chad in decreasing levels of importance. Any plan to keep Biya in power clearly runs counter to French and American interests. Upon closer examination, the very fabric that held French speaking and English speaking Cameroonians together is irreparably torn.

Biya took over from the late President Ahmadou Ahidjo in 1982 and to rule Cameroon, the so-called Roman Catholic Christian had to tailor his approach to the few ethnic groups in the Centre and South regions while appeasing the Muslims in the Grand North with numerous political positions and oppressing the Anglophones and at the same time setting the Bamilekes against one another.

In practice, it meant Biya controlling all levers of power and reinforcing his leadership through funny arrangements. He only thought of the Anglophones in 1990 and gave them a prominent position as Prime Minister with the emergence of the SDF party. Correspondingly, the individuals of the Anglophone community that had positions in government were those upon whose patronage he relied. In essence, Biya created a new tribe in Southern Cameroons-the CPDM tribe and demanded complete and total loyalty. Members of this CPDM tribe in Southern Cameroons are presently looking the other way while Biya and his army soldiers are killing hundreds of Ambazonians and destroying their towns and villages.

Many corrupt UN and African Union officials fail to recognize that Biya and his gang had forbade the development of any form of opposition or liberal centers of thought and cohesion — much less a free press — that could challenge his authority.

For 35 years, the key unifying driver of allegiance and cohesion was political appointments followed by loyalty to the Right Royal President. Now that the state of Cameroon has broken down, Biya and some Beti Ewondo political elites are trading the crisis in Southern Cameroons as the most attractive and unifying alternative ideology for all French Cameroonians.

The initial lawyers and teachers strike in Anglophone Cameroon may not have been designed to bring about separation but the way the crisis has been mismanaged has become central in influencing the trajectory of the uprising nonetheless.  Having failed in every aspect of nation building, Biya stands today as a great magnet to which all diplomats from the EU, US, the AU or UN are attracted. The reason is simple: At 85, Biya is prepared to dish out millions of dollars to anyone who can guarantee his continued stay in power and protect his family.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai