Cameroon’s president Paul Biya issued a decree on Monday saying a presidential election will be held on October 7, amidst a worsening security situation in the Southwest and Northwest Anglophone regions.

As Biya’s decree was being read on public television, the inhabitants of Buea, the capital of the Southwest region were still confined to their homes for fear of going out after witnessing gunfire in the morning between soldiers and Anglophone separatists.

This is the first time that gunfire has been exchanged in neighbourhoods of this city of more than 100,000 inhabitants, that has had a large number of military personnel deployed since the beginning of the English-speaking crisis at the end of 2016.

President Paul Biya, 85, who has been in power for close to 36 years has not announced whether he will run for a seventh re-election, but in May his party sais he is their “natural” candidate.

“Paul Biya is our candidate in the next presidential election, given his eloquent record, his national and international credibility, diplomatic, economic, social and cultural”, wrote leaders of the ruling party and traditional leaders from the South, where Biya comes from.

The same month, the US ambassador to Cameroon, Peter Henry Barlerin, said after a meeting with the president that Paul Biya “should reflect on his legacy and how he wants to be remembered in history books”, provoking strong criticism in the presidential camp.

Biya’s likely opponents

The opposition has described Biya’s state record as “chaotic”.

Among them, Joshua Osih, who was elected in February as candidate of the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF, English-speaking).

This 49-year-old businessman contest for the Cameroonian presidency, after Ni John Fru Ndi, leader of the SDF and historical opponent to Biya decided to give way to the “young cadets” of the party.

Other prominent opposition candidates, according to analysts, include Transparency International lawyer and former vice president Akere Muna, as well as the president of the Mouvement pour la renaissance du Cameroun (MRC) party, Maurice Kamto.

On October 7, these candidates will seek the 7 year mandate to run the affairs of the troubled West African nation.

Security crisis

The voting will take place in a delicate context.

The jihadist group Boko Haram is still active in the far north of the country and the English-speaking regions of the North-West and South-West have been facing a serious socio-political crisis since late 2016.

The latter started as a modest industrial strike action by English-speaking lawyers and teachers in 2016, but has since developed into a full blown armed conflict.

Today, fighting between Cameroonian security forces and armed men claiming to be “restoration forces” of an English-speaking state that had briefly emerged between the two world wars, under British mandate, has disrupted business and livelihoods in the Anglophone regions.

According to the government, more than 80 members of the security forces were killed in the fighting.

The UN says up to 160,000 people have fled their homes as a result of the violence, while the Nigerian Emergency Management Agency says 34,000 have fled to Nigeria.

Source: Agencies

Though Boko Haram’s lethality and tactical innovation, al-Shabaab’s resilience, and the brokering of partnerships by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have rightfully dominated analysis of political violence in Africa, other situations are also increasingly relevant for those concerned with political violence in Africa. With the escalation of the crisis in Anglophone Cameroon and the October general elections presenting a risk of further increased tensions, the evolution of the country’s conflict and its implications for political violence across the continent is worth noting.

Much can be learned about conflict escalation from the Cameroonian government’s reaction to the calls of Anglophone activists, which has pushed the country towards violent conflict and has made the prospects for peaceful dialogue ever dimmer. The Cameroonian government, historically, has not effectively integrated and engaged its Anglophone population through inclusive governance practices. And since protests erupted nearly two years ago, the Biya administration has not seem inclined to engage in peaceful dialogue to draw down the crisis. Taken together, these suggest that the scale of the conflict, and its lethality, are likely to escalate.

Origins of the Crisis

The origin of friction between Anglophone and Francophone populations in Cameroon can be traced back to the colonial era. Originally under German rule, Cameroon was partitioned between the French and British into two territories, both governed as trusts. Anglophone and Francophone Cameroonians were unified under a federal system in 1961 after a plebiscite was held in which voters were given a choice to join either Nigeria or Cameroon. It is worth mentioning that, among Anglophone Cameroonians, nearly 60 percent of Anglophones in the majority-Muslim northern region voted to join Nigeria, while roughly 70 percent of Anglophones in the majority-Christian southern region voted to join Cameroon.

In 1972, under President Ahmadou Ahidjo, the federal system was discarded in favor of a united, bilingual republic. To this day, however, Anglophone regions are governed by Common Law, whereas the rest of the country is governed by a civil code. Debates over the extent to which the country is dominated by Francophones, what sub-national authorities that the two Anglophone regions should be granted, and various cultural matters, have resulted in a proliferation of Anglophone activist groups and general politicking around the issue. Groups that may seem at face value to be apolitical—including teachers’ unions and legal associations—have taken up Anglophone issues as a part of political campaigns.

Anglophones currently make up roughly 20 percent of the country’s population and are undeniably under-represented in President Paul Biya’s government. Since taking power in 1982, less than 11 percent of the ministers appointed by Biya have been Anglophones. At present, just three of the 33 generals in the country and six of the 63-person cabinet members are Anglophones. Even within Anglophone districts, government jobs are often given to Francophone appointees.

Escalation of the Crisis

Though longstanding, the conflict between Anglophone and Francophone Cameroonians took a lethal turn in 2016 when widespread, peaceful protests and strikes emerged. Media reports focused on the role of Common Law lawyers advocating to abandon the Cameroonian Bar Association. Other groups, including the country’s teachers, then joined the protests. After weeks of strikes, gendarmes used tear gas against protesters. Shortly thereafter, four people were killed in clashes with security forces during a protest in Bamenda that arose after the Cameroon Teacher’s Trade Union called for a strike. Reports also emerged in late November of sexual violence against students at the University of Buea by Cameroonian security forces.

As the protests continued, the Biya government also began detaining and arresting Anglophone activists and journalists and shutting down newspapers and radio stations. Beginning in January 2017 the government cut or greatly slowed down internet services in Anglophone regions. The internet shutdown ended up being one of the longest recorded in sub-Saharan Africa, lasting just under 100 days. The shutdown was economically harmful—given the region’s reputation as “silicon mountain”—and also hamstrung efforts to keep track of events in the region.

At the same time, the government also engaged in some conciliatory measures. A National Commission on the Promotion of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism was established and was accompanied in short order by the “appointing [of] Anglophone magistrates and bilingual teachers, and [the] releasing from prison some Anglophone civil society leaders and activists.” According to Amnesty International, however, “these moves were viewed by the Anglophone movements as being too limited,” and the protests continued.

The groups that have emerged to advance Anglophone rights have advocated different means and different ends. The vast majority of Anglophone activists advocate for peaceful resolution of the conflict, but as government repression has intensified, groups who advocate secession, or worse, violence, have become more significant. Some groups advocate for more federalism, while others call for secession and the establishment of an independent state called “Ambazonia.” A number of armed separatist groups also formed an umbrella organization, the Ambazonia Recognition Collaboration Council (ARCC), claiming to have thousands of fighters.

Through the spring and summer of 2017, however, Anglophone protesters steadily escalated their tactics. Over this period, at least 42 schools and a number of market stalls in Anglophone Cameroon were burned down. A recent report catalogued a number of instances in which Anglophone separatists targeted civilians who did not engage in the demonstrations. The Biya government imposed curfews and increased the security sector’s presence in the region in response. Despite this, Anglophone separatists declared independence on October 1, 2017; in clashes with the state security forces that day, reports indicated that at least a dozen people were killed and 40 arrested.

By November 2017, separatists were making attacks on the government more frequently and brazenly. In the Northwest province, for example, they began targeting police with homemade explosive devices. The Biya government stepped up its repression and arrests, labeled the separatists “terrorists” by comparing them to Boko Haram, and declared war on them.

Actions taken by armed separatist groups and the government continued to worsen. Separatists are suspected to have kidnapped nine employees of a construction firm and in response to the arrest and repatriation of Anglophone activists that fled to Nigeria, an armed separatist group called the Ambazonian Defence Force (ADF) began abducting government officials. Soon thereafter, a Tunisian national living in Cameroon was abducted and killed, after which the government organized a rescue mission to release 18 hostages, including 12 Europeans. Just this May, a radio journalist and Anglophone activist, Mancho Bibixy, was sentenced to 15 years in prison under the country’s anti-terrorism law in a military court. Four journalists had previously been held under the act until President Biya issued a presidential decree for their release. Bibixy’s conviction has prompted speculation about what sentences could be handed down to the other detained activists and journalists.

Throughout this escalation, more than 20,000 people have fled the country for neighboring Nigeria and an estimated 150,000 have been internally displaced. The escalation has transformed a generally peaceful, albeit contentious, debate over the extent and nature of federalism in modern Cameroon into a violent, potentially-existential crisis over the future of the Cameroonian state.

What Lies Ahead?

Though a number of the characteristics of this conflict are specific to Cameroon, the events of the past few years highlight the importance of inclusive governance measures and the ramifications of heavy-handed security responses to political dissidents. In particular, the Cameroonian experience points to the need to engage moderate political dissidents early and earnestly. In waiting months before attempting to work with the Anglophone community and doing so after violence began to escalate, the Biya administration allowed hardliners and separatists within the movement to mobilize effectively and gain influence. Had the government engaged the initial protests, led by lawyers and teachers, the escalation of the crisis may have been averted.

In October, Cameroon will hold elections, which could result in increased tensions. Anglophone territories have previously thrown their support behind the Social Democratic Front (SDF), which currently controls 18 of the 180 seats in parliament. If any perception of illegitimacy in the electoral process takes hold, the current level of violence could take an even deadlier turn. Avoiding an escalation of this kind, and ultimately changing the tone of the current situation, requires dialogue between prominent moderate, non-violent Anglophone activists and the government.

Source: Reliefweb

President Biya is implementing an aggressive and destructive policy in Southern Cameroons. The 85 year old dictator has precipitated an armed conflict against the English speaking community of the country which is getting worse. He is pushing the Francophone dominated army against Southern Cameroonians and he is opening and maintaining military bases in Southern Cameroons and claiming that he is fighting separatists.

Senior political commentators have recently opined that Biya has smashed the 1961 Foumban agreement with West Cameroon. And he is making matters worse because of his excessive use of force. The French government of President Macron is supporting Biya in his slaughter in Ambazonia. Correspondingly, the special relationship between Biya and Buhari has massively supported the expansion of French Secret Service operations inside Nigeria. On the top of this, Biya does not have any serious plans for solving the crisis in Southern Cameroons.

A prominent traditional ruler from the Manyu constituency who spoke to Cameroon Intelligence Report but sued for anonymity said Biya is a clown with guns in his hands. And that is why CPDM militants are now realizing that Biya is a political disaster that has been around for 35 years.

Soon and very soon there is going to be a massive anti Biya movement in French Cameroun. Our chief political editor noted that Biya is dangerous. He is dangerous to the One and Indivisible Cameroon. He is dangerous to the African Union. He is dangerous to his own country-French Cameroun and he is dangerous to the world.

By Chi Prudence Asong

A Referendum is now the only solution to the Anglophone crisis. To Biya and his sycophants who claim “an overwhelming majority” of Anglophones want to remain in bondage and servitude in Cameroon; to Anglophone regime apologists and fifth columnists who benefit from the crumbs served by their paymaster and see nothing wrong with the genocide against their own people; to those ass-kissing Anglophones who blame the Diaspora for inciting and financing the struggle; and to all those who believe Ambazonia independence is non-negotiable; here is my challenge. stop the senseless mayhem and bloodbath and invite the UN to come in and organize a referendum as was the case in 1961. Only Anglophones will be allowed to vote as was the case in 1961 and voting will take place ONLY in Anglophone Cameroon as was the case in 1961 and registration will be done at the village level. The results will be binding on all stakeholders. Until that happens, for “an overwhelming majority” of Anglophones, it is now freedom or death…the struggle continues

By Ekinneh Agbaw-Ebai

Two years after President Biya launched his so-called war on separatists, an untold number of Southern Cameroonian civilians have been killed by disease, illness and by the French Cameroun military campaign. A Southern Cameroonian serving in French Cameroun as Prime Minister and Head of Government recently announced some kind of a humanitarian reconstruction aimed at minimizing the displacement of Ambazonians and the damage to infrastructure and the disruption of services in Southern Cameroons. The Philemon Yang Plan is still not working.

Ever since the Francophone dominated army started its genocidal campaign in Southern Cameroons, thousands of Ambazonia lives have been turned upside down, lawlessness has been allowed to fester and spread, and the one and indivisible Cameroon is now a nation at risk of fracturing apart. Moreover, an untold number of Southern Cameroons innocent civilians have been killed – by disease, illness, in gruesome tortures performed by French Cameroun army soldiers and French military advisers.

In recent days, the US ambassador Peter Barlerin has forced the Biya regime to address the painful issue of Southern Cameroons civilian casualties following a publication by Amnesty International which found that, contrary to the claims of the Biya Francophone regime, all French Cameroun military actions in Southern Cameroons resulted in civilians’ deaths. Figures also released by the International Crisis Group indicate that Southern Cameroonians killed was 57 times higher than what the Biya regime has acknowledged.

The Prime Minister Philemon Yang diabolic humanitarian scheme was a hit back at the Amnesty International report.  Cameroon Intelligence Report believes some 865 civilians have been intentionally killed by French Cameroun troops since the operations against Ambazonian Restoration Forces started.

The unfortunate death of Southern Cameroons civilians is a fact of the war that does not weigh heavy on the hearts of President Biya and his crime syndicate. The truth is that nobody knows how many Ambazonian civilians have been killed in Southern Cameroons since the 85 year old dictator launched the military campaign.

The French Cameroun army is now keeping painstaking records of its soldiers killed in both the Southern and Northern Zones of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia-120 French Cameroun soldiers as revealed by Defense Minister Beti Assomo. Yet, Yaoundé have never tried to make an overall tally of Southern Cameroons civilian deaths or those killed in other theatres in Nigeria.

The Interim Government of the Federal Republic of Ambazonia has been making several attempts to come up with a figure in a project that maintains a tally of casualties based on media reports. However, the Ambazonia Communication Secretary, Hon. Chris Anu admitted to Cameroon Concord News Group that the Interim Government  figures are based on reports in the media, which are themselves limited in scope and detail.

The truth of the matter is that nobody knows. The figure could be 800; it could be 1000 or more. And when you add the civilian casualties in the Cross River and Benue States in Nigeria and in the forest where the Biya Southern Cameroons war has played out – it becomes even more of a guessing game.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai