4, June 2024
South Africa: The ANC dilemma which will determine Mandela’s legacy 0
South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) is faced with a tricky dilemma which will determine the future of the country after it spectacularly lost its parliamentary majority in last week’s election.
Having won only 40% of the vote, the ANC needs to find a coalition partner to secure a majority in parliament which will support its choice of president and legislative plans – unless it tries to go alone with a minority government.
One option would be to strike a deal with the second biggest party, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% of the vote.
However this would be politically risky, as the DA’s critics accuse it of trying to protect the economic privileges the country’s white minority built up during the racist system of apartheid – a charge the party denies.
Alternatively, the ANC could work with two radical parties that broke away from it – former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party or Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
These three parties share the same constituency, the black majority, and their combined vote comes to 65%. Mr Malema has warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “reinforce white supremacy” and be a “puppet of a white imperialist agenda”.
This was a clear reference to a coalition with the DA, whose policies are diametrically opposed to the ANC’s, but they both agree on the need to uphold the constitution that South Africa adopted at the end of apartheid in 1994.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has made it clear that any coalition agreement would have to be within the framework of the current constitution.
One of the big obstacles to a deal is the DA’s fierce opposition to the ANC’s efforts to create a welfare state – especially a government-funded national health service, which the DA rejects, saying it is too expensive andthreatens the future of the private health sector.
The DA believes in the free market, opposes a minimum wage, and wants to reduce red tape, saying this is the best way to improve the economy and raise living standards for all South Africans.
It is vehemently opposed to the ANC’s black economic empowerment policies, seeing them as discriminating against racial minorities while simply leading to the enrichment of the ANC’s business cronies.
Denying the allegations, the ANC has resolutely pursued these policies, arguing that they give black people a stake in the economy that they were excluded from during apartheid.
ANC chairman Gwede Mantashe has gone as far as to say the ANC’s black empowerment policies are non-negotiable, suggesting that he has ruled out a coalition with the DA.
But, according to some local media, President Ramaphosa is willing to enter into a coalition with the DA, believing that their policy differences could be overcome.
To overcome racial sensitivities, other parties – such as the mainly black Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Good party, which draws its support primarily from the coloured community, as people of mixed race are known in South Africa – could be included to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with MK, which was the big winner of the election by securing third spot with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested.
But it is demanding a fresh poll, alleging that it got even more votes but the final result was rigged. The electoral commission has rejected the allegation, and MK has not yet presented any evidence for its claim.
The chasm between it and the ANC is wide, wider than with any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between Mr Zuma and Mr Ramaphosa, who ousted him as the country’s leader.
As well as demanding a new president, MK wants the constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “unfettered parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has ruled out.
At first glance, this also rules out the EFF, as it too is demanding a constitutional amendment so that white-owned land can be expropriated without compensation.
Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled by the party in 2012 for fomenting divisions and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was willing to work with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s demand for land expropriation was a “cardinal principle”, and it would not join the government if the ANC rejects it.
The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party would have to be brought into a coalition.
Or they could team up with Mr Zuma’s MK, which also supports land expropriation, and says there is a need to distribute farmland on an “equal basis among the farming population”.
But to change the constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed and again the ANC, EFF and MK fall just short of the 267 seats needed – they have 256 seats between them.
While the ANC is opposed to constitutional amendments, it accepts that the current land-ownership patterns need to be tackled.
In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former President Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Mr Ramaphosa, said the “land question” was a “source of national grievance”.
His comments suggest there could be room for agreement with the EFF, and possibly even MK, on the issue.
The DA strongly opposes a deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a “Doomsday Coalition” that would turn South Africa into a “Zimbabwe or Venezuela”.
“The Doomsday Coalition will plunge this country into ethnic and racial conflict the likes of which it has never witnessed before,” the party says.
But some ANC officials hold the opposite view – that stability would be threatened if MK is excluded, given its electoral success, which has made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.
KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second-most populous province, and is often described as the economic artery of the nation because of its ports.
It is also politically the most volatile province, with a history of violence – more than 300 people died in riots after Mr Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.
He was convicted of contempt of court for defying an order to co-operate with an official inquiry into corruption during his nine-year presidency, which ended in 2018.
ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another court case looming – Mr Zuma is due to stand trial next year on charges of corruption over a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a fresh wave of violence.
They therefore feel some sort of deal needs to be reached with him to draw a line under the past, and to recognise his status as a former president – especially as he has demonstrated that he commands 15% of the national vote.
ANC leaders in Gauteng – South Africa’s biggest and richest province – are said to favour a deal with the EFF, but their hand has been considerably weakened by the fact that the two parties do not have enough seats for a parliamentary majority.
That increases the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, especially as it is favoured by the private sector as the best option to guarantee economic stability and to avoid capital flight.
But South Africa’s respected News24 website reports that the ANC is considering the option of forming a minority government, while signing a confidence-and-supply agreement with the DA, and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a mainly black party with support in KwaZulu-Natal, which has 17 seats.
The two would vote with the ANC on crucial issues such as the budget, while the ANC would have to constantly lobby them – or other parties – to support it on other legislation.
This could help the ANC out of its dilemma of choosing a coalition partner, and it may also suit the DA, as a coalition with the ANC could cause it to lose support to parties to its right.
However, there is a risk that a minority government could lead to political instability and “transactional politics” – opposition MPs demanding or being offered bribes to back ANC-sponsored legislation.
It is still too early to say what will happen. All the parties are still considering their options, but many South Africans are hoping that by the time parliament convenes, within a fortnight, there will at least be an outline deal on what the next government will look like.
Culled from the BBC
7, June 2024
UN General Assembly elects Philémon Yang president of Seventy-Ninth Session 0
Pakistan, Somalia, Panama, Denmark, Greece Elected Non-Permanent Members of Security Council for 2025-2026 Term
In a series of elections today, delegates in the General Assembly chose its President for the seventy-ninth session, the Bureaus of the six Main Committees, as well the five non-permanent members of the Security Council for the next two-year term.
Philémon Yang (Cameroon), who was elected by acclamation to serve as the Assembly’s next President, announced the theme of his presidency: “Unity and diversity for advancing peace, sustainable development and human dignity, everywhere and for all.”
Thanking his predecessors, including the current President, for the “art and science” that each of them deployed during their term’s complex deliberations, he expressed appreciation to all Member States. Highlighting the solidarity of the African Group, he said the African Union spared no effort to achieve the choice of a single continental candidate, while the Central African States endorsed Cameroon very early on at the Economic Community of Central African States Summit. Further, the election is an honour for his country, he said, paying tribute to the wisdom of its President, Paul Biya.
“We are living in very difficult times marked by very striking contrast,” he said, noting conflicts around the world and the unbearable toll on civilians and refugees, “whose numbers are currently reaching a dizzying peak”, including in Gaza and Ukraine. Artificial intelligence is magnifying opportunities and challenges so quickly to the point that “even the most convinced followers of digitalization are calling for rigorous regulation,” he observed. Climate disruptions are posing “a real question of survival”, while the revitalization of the General Assembly and Security Council reform are either halted or moving forward too slowly. And despite global consensus, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and other agreements on which much hope had been placed are “limping dangerously”, he added.
“In short, the tools at our disposal to promote the well-being of present and future generations are under-utilized while those oriented towards war are over-exploited,” he said. Calling for renewed multilateralism, he highlighted the special role of the Assembly, as the “highest chamber of representation”. It is the most appropriate forum where delegates can express their concerns and aspirations, “the challenges and hopes of the nations of the world”, he said. Exhorting all nations “big and small, rich and poor,” to work together on their common goals, he said sustainable development, shared prosperity and harmony with nature are possible if countries of the world set aside their differences.
Congratulating the President-elect, Assembly President Dennis Francis (Trinidad and Tobago) said Mr. Yang’s “remarkable” career in public life “is testament to a depth of experience and a breadth of vision that are truly exceptional”. As Prime Minister of Cameroon, Chairperson of the African Union’s Panel of Eminent Africans and at the United Nations, Mr. Yang demonstrated “unwavering dedication to the principles of peace, sustainable development and human dignity”, he said. The President-elect’s leadership has also been characterized, he noted, “by a consistent commitment to dialogue, cooperation and inclusivity — principles that are absolutely essential for guiding the General Assembly’s work”.
Underscoring that the Assembly remains a “preeminent and necessary global forum” as the international community navigates multiple complex challenges, he stressed that upholding the principles of multilateralism and international cooperation has never been more vital. “We must work together — and much harder — in solidarity and partnership to address the pressing issues of our time and to ensure that no one is left behind,” he said. Turning to the remaining months of the seventy-eighth session, he urged finalization of the Summit of the Future — “a landmark event that holds the promise of transformative change”. Its success, he added, depends on the active engagement and commitment of all Member States to a genuine effort to find consensus.
António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General, also offered his congratulations to the President-elect, noting that he arrives at a challenging moment for humanity, amid raging conflicts, deepening climate catastrophe, rife poverty and inequality, and growing mistrust and division. With the Sustainable Development Goals “dramatically off-track”, developing countries are left without the support they need. “A proud African dedicated to the future of his continent,”, Mr. Yang has a wealth of experience representing his country at the highest levels. African countries like Cameroon are bursting with potential, he said, calling on the international community to rally around them and support developing countries worldwide.
“I look forward to working closely with him,” the Secretary-General said, “as he unites Member States around collaborative solutions that can deliver justice to Africa and the developing world.” He also praised Mr. Francis for his diplomatic skill, stewardship and dedication over the past year. “He brought the needs of small island developing States to this Assembly — and so much more,” he said, expressing appreciation for his leadership, including in advancing preparations for the Summit of the Future this September. “At every step, he championed solidarity and brought this Assembly together at a deeply divided and troubled moment in our history,” he said.
The representative of Cameroon, speaking on behalf of the African Group, said it is confident that Mr. Yang — through his academic and professional training, as well as diplomatic and political wisdom — will successfully lead the work of the Assembly’s seventy-ninth session. Above all, his leadership will shine in “debates and decisive actions aiming to improve the destiny of countries in conflict or special situations, many of which are in our planet’s southern hemisphere, especially in Africa,” he added. These countries need unfailing support for the transformation enshrined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. He urged Member States to support Mr. Yang in achieving his objectives.
Also congratulating the President-elect were the representatives of Yemen on behalf of the Asia-Pacific States, Austria on behalf of the Western European and Other States, and the United States as the host country.
In accordance with tradition, the Secretary-General drew lots to determine which delegation would occupy the first seat in the Assembly Hall during the seventy-eighth session, with all other countries following in English alphabetical order. Yemen was picked for the first seat and this seating order will be observed in the Main Committees.
The Assembly then elected the following Vice-Presidents of its plenary: Algeria, Angola, Austria, Barbados, Ghana, Guatemala, Italy, Kyrgyzstan, Madagascar, Moldova, Senegal, Thailand, Tonga, Turkmenistan and Venezuela. Those elected join the five permanent members of the Security Council — China, France, Russian Federation, United Kingdom and the United States — which serve annually as Assembly Vice-Presidents.
The representative of the United States dissociated from the election of Venezuela as Vice-President.
Following the meeting, consecutive meetings of the Assembly’s six Main Committees were held to elect their respective Bureaus by acclamation.
The First Committee (Disarmament and International Security) elected Maritza Chan Valverde (Costa Rica) as Chair; El Hadj Lehbib Mohamedou (Mauritania), Abdulrahman Abdulaziz Al-Thani (Qatar) and Vivica Munkner (Germany) as Vice-Chairs; and Pēteris Filipsons (Latvia) as Rapporteur.
The Fourth Committee (Special Political and Decolonization) elected Sanita Pavļuta-Deslandes (Latvia) as Chair; Sheikh Jassim Abdulaziz J. A. Al-Thani (Qatar), Carmen Rosa Rios (Bolivia) and Hussein Hirji (Canada) as Vice-Chairs; and Makarabo Moloeli (Lesotho) as Rapporteur.
The Second Committee (Economic and Financial) elected Muhammad Abdul Muhith (Bangladesh) as Chair; David Anyaegbu (Nigeria), Ivana Vejic (Croatia) and Gudrun Thorbjoernsdottir (Iceland) as Vice-Chairs; and Stefany Romero Veiga (Uruguay) as Rapporteur.
The Third Committee (Social, Humanitarian and Cultural) elected Zéphyrin Maniratanga (Burundi) as Chair; Nur Azura Abd Karim (Malaysia), Ekaterine Lortkipanidze (Georgia) and Mayra Lisseth Sorto Rosales (El Salvador) as Vice-Chairs; and Mark Reichwein (Netherlands) as Rapporteur.
The Fifth Committee (Administrative and Budgetary) elected Egriselda Aracely González López (El Salvador) as Chair; Surat Suwannikkha (Thailand), Szymon Mateusz Pekala (Poland) and Johanna Bischof (Austria) as Vice-Chairs; and Elaye-Djibril Yacin Abdillahi (Djibouti) as Rapporteur.
The Sixth Committee (Legal) elected Rui Vinhas (Portugal) as Chair; Ammar Mohammed Mahmoud Mohammed (Sudan), Matúš Košuth (Slovakia) and Ligia Lorena Flores Soto (El Salvador) as Vice-Chairs; and Yong-Ern Nathaniel Khng (Singapore) as Rapporteur.
In the morning, the Assembly in one round of voting elected five non-permanent Council members for two-year terms to replace members whose terms expire on 31 December 2024. They included Pakistan and Somalia to the two seats open for African and Asia-Pacific States; Panama to the single seat open for Latin American and Caribbean States; and Denmark and Greece to two seats open for Western European and other States. Their two-year terms will end on 1 January 2027.
Culled from the UN