Politics

23, July 2026

Yaoundé: CPDM barons meet as Biya’s long absence draws criticism ⁰

Cameroon’s ruling party called a rare meeting of senior leaders on Wednesday as criticism mounted over the continued absence of President Paul Biya, 93, who has spent the last 45 days abroad.

Biya, the ‌world’s oldest head of state, left Cameroon on June 7 for what the civil cabinet described as “a brief private stay in Europe” and has since not returned. The government has provided no information as to when he might be back.

Jean Nkuete, secretary-general of the central committee of the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), who summoned the ⁠meeting, did not disclose its agenda, describing it in a statement only as “an important working session.” There was no immediate indication that the meeting was linked to Biya’s prolonged absence from public view.

In office since 1982, Biya has for years spent extended stretches in Switzerland and elsewhere in Europe, though his advanced age means they have increasingly fuelled speculation about his health, whereabouts and ability to govern. The current overseas trip is his longest yet.

DISCUSSION OF HEALTH BANNED

After a similarly extended period out of the country in 2024, the ‌government banned discussion ⁠of Biya’s health.

That has not stopped some opposition figures from commenting on Biya’s absence.

The Cameroon Democratic Union, an opposition party, said in a statement on July 18 that officials should “provide the nation with the necessary clarifications regarding the effective continuity of the state.”

In a Facebook post on July ⁠17, opposition lawmaker Jean Michel Nintcheu said the Constitutional Court should declare the position of head of state vacant.

A government spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. The government has previously ⁠dismissed reports that Biya is receiving medical treatment and said he can effectively run the cocoa- and oil-producing country from overseas.

Lawmakers in April approved the re-introduction of the role ⁠of vice president, who would be first in line to succeed Biya, but the role has not been filled.

Biya has also not appointed a new government despite having won re-election last October.

Source: Reuters

22, July 2026

Issa Tchiroma Calls for Overthrow of Biya’s Government ⁰

Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary has made a direct appeal to the country’s defence and security forces, urging them to facilitate his return from The Gambia, where he says he is living in forced exile.

In a message on his official Facebook account and addressed to members of the National Gendarmerie, the Army, the Air Force, the Navy and the Fire Brigade Corps, Issa Tchiroma reiterated his rejection of the official results of the October 12, 2025 presidential election, which declared incumbent President Paul Biya the winner.

Issa Tchiroma maintains that he won the election and described himself as the “President-elect” of Cameroon.

Addressing military personnel, Tchiroma paid tribute to their role in defending the nation’s territorial integrity, maintaining peace and protecting citizens in accordance with the rule of law and respect for human rights.

Tchiroma promised that, if he assumed office, he would modernise the country’s defence forces and improve the welfare of military personnel. “Under my leadership, I will ensure a more professional, stronger and more modern army with a status that matches your role and the risks and threats we all face,” he said.

The exiled opposition leader accused the current administration of refusing to recognise the will of the electorate and claimed to have initiated international legal proceedings to defend democracy and human rights in Cameroon.

He further alleged that Cameroonians were facing persecution and intimidation, accusing what he described as “misguided elements” within the security services of acting against the population.

Tchiroma also claimed that he received overwhelming electoral support during the 2025 presidential election, including significant backing from members of the defence and security forces. These claims differ from the official election results announced by Cameroon’s electoral authorities.

Calling on members of the military to remain faithful to their constitutional responsibilities, Tchiroma urged them to uphold the sovereign will of the people. “Remember that you have sworn an oath to serve the Cameroonian people,” he told members of the armed forces. “You must take your responsibilities and not allow yourselves to be drawn into this calamitous path with no future.”

In the strongest part of his address, Tchiroma appealed directly to the military to facilitate his return to Cameroon. “I solemnly ask you to come and take me home from The Gambia where I find myself in constrained and forced exile,” he said.

“I am eager to be by the side of my people, the Cameroonian people who elected me, and to serve them with honour and loyalty for a brighter future.”

Tchiroma Bakary added that he believed it was his constitutional duty to preside over this year’s Armed Forces Day celebrations (on August 14), as Commander-in-Chief, based on his claim that he was the legitimate winner of the 2025 election.

The appeal comes as Tchiroma continues to challenge the official outcome from abroad. Cameroon’s electoral authorities declared President Paul Biya the winner of the poll with 53.7 per cent, a result that Tchiroma and some opposition supporters have rejected. The official election results gave Tchiroma 35.2 per cent of the votes.

Source: Panafricanvisions

21, July 2026

Senegal changes course to back ex-leader Macky Sall as UN chief ⁰

Senegal announced on Monday it was supporting former president Macky Sall in his bid to become the next United Nations secretary-general, changing tack just three days after Sall visited his successor in Dakar.

The government had, until now, declined to back Sall, who was president from 2012 to 2024.

It accuses him of violent political repression that led to dozens of deaths during his last years in office, and of covering up unfavourable economic data.

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye came to office in 2024 on a wave of anti-Sall sentiment.

On Friday, Faye met Sall during the latter’s first trip to Dakar since leaving office and moving to Morocco.

Faye’s entourage said Sall was there to update the president on his UN bid.

On Monday, the foreign ministry announced Faye had now decided that Senegal would “lend its full support” to Sall’s candidacy.

He has “instructed the government and entire Senegalese diplomatic network to promote his candidacy among UN member states”, it said.

Sall’s bid is “now that of Senegal” the ministry added, saying it would benefit “Africa and more effective multilateralism”.

Burundi, which holds the rotating African Union presidency, nominated Sall earlier this year to replace outgoing UN leader Antonio Guterres.

But around 20 AU member states, including Senegal, refused to back him.

Sall was welcomed by thousands of supporters when he arrived in Dakar on Friday.

But his visit drew criticism from detractors, who are demanding answers for the dozens of deaths during his time in office.

Source: AFP

16, July 2026

Biya’s absence in Yaoundé is testing the limits of the nation’s political system ⁰

President Paul Biya’s prolonged absence from public view has once again exposed a structural weakness at the heart of Cameroon’s governance: the concentration of decision-making in a single office.

As speculation over his whereabouts and health continues, Yaoundé appears to be operating in slow motion, with reports and widespread perceptions suggesting that major political and administrative decisions have been delayed while officials await direction from the presidency.

Whether every government function has stalled is open to debate, but the perception of institutional paralysis is itself significant. Investors, civil servants, political actors and ordinary citizens increasingly question how a modern state can remain so dependent on the availability of one individual.

The uncertainty has also revived an old constitutional and political debate. Cameroon has no vice-president. Under the Constitution, if the presidency becomes vacant, the President of the Senate assumes interim responsibilities until an election is held. Yet the absence of a permanently designated deputy means there is no clearly visible second-in-command to reassure the public during periods when the president is unavailable. The result is a leadership vacuum in the public imagination, even if constitutional mechanisms exist on paper.

This arrangement has fueled renewed calls from some analysts and opposition figures for reforms that would create the office of vice-president or otherwise clarify executive succession. Supporters argue that such a position could provide continuity and reduce uncertainty during periods of presidential absence, while critics contend that introducing a vice-president could create competing centers of power within the executive.

More broadly, the current situation underscores concerns about the resilience of Cameroon’s political institutions. A system that depends heavily on a single leader inevitably raises questions about succession planning, institutional autonomy and the ability of government to function smoothly under extraordinary circumstances.

Suggestions that the country is on the verge of a political rupture should, however be treated with caution. While prolonged uncertainty can heighten political tensions and deepen divisions among competing elites, predicting a rupture goes beyond the available evidence. What is clear is that sustained ambiguity over leadership risks eroding public confidence, encouraging speculation and increasing pressure for constitutional and institutional reforms.

Cameroon stands at an important moment. The issue is no longer simply the president’s absence, but whether the country’s institutions are sufficiently robust to ensure continuity, transparency and public confidence regardless of who occupies the highest office.

A stronger framework for executive succession and clearer communication during periods of presidential absence would not eliminate political uncertainty, but they would strengthen the credibility of the state and reduce the risks that uncertainty poses to governance.

Biya has been stuck in Geneva, Switzerland, for a month – alternating between a private clinic and his favoured suite at the InterContinental Hotel. This follows multiple false alarms about the 93-year old president’s declining health but the arrival of so many of his family and political associates in Geneva suggests that the concerns of those closest to him are mounting – leaving an ominous power vacuum in Yaoundé.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

5, July 2026

France: Will Le Pen be barred from the French presidency? ⁰

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s political fate will be decided on Tuesday when a Paris appeals court rules on whether she is eligible to run in the 2027 presidential elections, a verdict with major implications for France’s future. Le Pen is appealing her 2025 conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds to pay employees in her party.

The long-awaited verdict holds major implications for France’s political future. After months of waiting, the Paris Court of Appeal is due to rule on Tuesday on whether France’s far-right figurehead, Marine Le Pen, is eligible to run in the country’s 2027 presidential elections.

Le Pen, the long-time face of the National Rally (RN) party, is appealing a 2025 case in which she was convicted of embezzling European Parliament funds to pay her party’s employees. The conviction led to her being barred from running for public office for five years.

An acquittal is considered unlikely. But Le Pen might also see her penalty reduced, which could allow her to run for office. Or she could face a renewed conviction in line with the prosecution’s demands – effectively quashing any hopes of running for the presidency.

Le Pen has already run for president three times, but her popularity has risen significantly since her last attempt in 2022. As the clear front-runner in the polls for both the first and second rounds of the upcoming elections, she is well aware that her political fate lies with the July 7 decision.

“If the prosecution’s demands are upheld, I will be prevented from running,” she told French channel TF1-LCI on February 3.

In a separate interview with RTL in November 2025, when the appeal was scheduled for September, Le Pen also expressed her commitment to the broader far-right vision of the RN, even at the cost of her candidacy.

“I am not going to let things drag on, because I am committed to seeing our ideas come to power. If I am barred from running, but the Court of Cassation (the highest court in the French judicial system) rules in my favour three or four months later, it will be too late to run a proper presidential campaign,” she said.

Many legal experts believe Le Pen’s guilt was proven during the appeals trial. The judges are likely to follow the prosecution’s recommendations: a four-year prison sentence – with one year to be served in custody (eligible for electronic monitoring), a €100,000 fine and a five-year ban on holding public office. The verdict will not be immediately enforced.

Source: France 24

3, July 2026

Issa Tchiroma dismisses reports of planned U.S. travel from The Gambia as Fake News ⁰

The man widely believed to have won the 2025 presidential elections in Cameroon Issa Tchiroma Bakary has dismissed as “fake news” reports circulating on social media claiming that he was preparing to travel to the United States from The Gambia.

The reports alleged that Tchiroma had departed or was set to depart Banjul for the U.S. However, Gambian authorities have publicly rejected the claim, describing it as false and confirming that no such departure had taken place.

The denial comes amid continued speculation surrounding Tchiroma’s movements since he sought refuge in The Gambia following the disputed 2025 presidential election in Cameroon. He has remained active politically from exile, issuing statements and pursuing legal action against the Cameroonian government while residing in Banjul.

The false reports quickly spread across media houses in Cameroon and social media platforms, prompting officials to issue a clarification aimed at countering misinformation. Authorities reiterated that Tchiroma remains in The Gambia and that claims of his travel to the United States are entirely unfounded.

The episode highlights the growing challenge posed by online misinformation surrounding high-profile political figures, particularly those living in exile, where unverified claims can rapidly gain traction before being officially debunked.

By Rita Akana in Yaounde

2, July 2026

Inoni Ephraim: how yesterday’s indispensable Biya ally quickly became today’s discarded liability ⁰

The public humiliation endured by some of President Paul Biya’s most loyal collaborators, including former Prime Minister Ephraim Inoni, serves as a powerful reminder of a political reality that has defined the Biya era for decades: unwavering loyalty to the regime offers no guarantee of protection.

For years, Inoni was among the most trusted faces of the ruling CPDM crime syndicate. He occupied one of the highest offices in the land, faithfully implementing government policy and defending the Biya system. Yet when political winds shifted, he found himself prosecuted, imprisoned and stripped of the prestige that had accompanied his years of service. Whether Cameroonians believe the legal proceedings against Inoni were fully justified or politically motivated, the broader lesson remains difficult to ignore. In the Biya system, yesterday’s indispensable ally can quickly become today’s discarded liability.

Inoni is far from an isolated case. Several prominent ministers, senior civil servants, military officers and ruling party stalwarts have similarly fallen from grace after years of devoted service. Many who once stood at the very center of power eventually discovered that political survival depended less on loyalty than on the ever-changing calculations of the presidency and the balance of power within the regime.

This recurring pattern raises important questions about governance and institutional trust. Stable political systems are built on predictable institutions, transparent accountability and equal treatment before the law. When prosecutions or political downfalls appear selective or unpredictable, they inevitably fuel public perceptions that justice may be influenced by political considerations rather than applied consistently.

The message sent to those serving within the current administration is sobering. Absolute loyalty does not necessarily translate into lasting security. Years of dedicated service may not shield an official from disgrace should circumstances change. In such an environment, trust becomes fragile, and fear often replaces confidence.

For the Cameroonian public, these episodes also reinforce a broader concern about the concentration of power. Institutions that depend heavily on the decisions of a single political center rather than on strong, independent processes risk creating uncertainty for both officials and ordinary citizens alike.

The story of Chief Ephraim Inoni and other once-powerful figures is therefore more than the personal tragedy of fallen elites. It illustrates the precarious nature of political patronage in an entrenched system where proximity to power can be temporary and where loyalty, however steadfast may not be reciprocated.

Ultimately, the humiliation suffered by many of President Biya’s closest former associates stands as a cautionary tale. It suggests that in a system where political fortunes can change overnight, trust is not earned through years of faithful service but remains contingent on circumstances that few can control. That is a lesson not only for those within the corridors of power but for every observer seeking to understand the dynamics of Cameroon’s political landscape.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

22, June 2026

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces resignation ⁰

Britain’s Keir Starmer on Monday announced his resignation as prime minister and as leader of the governing Labour Party. Starmer says he will remain caretaker prime minister until a new Labour leader is chosen in the next few weeks.

The British pound and the London stock market firmed, and the UK’s benchmark 10-year bond dipped, after Britain’s embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his widely expected resignation, with the country appearing set for an orderly transition to a new leader.

Starmer’s departure could mean a change of finance minister and increased public spending, a prospect that has alarmed investors concerned about the country’s debt levels.

Rachel Reeves has been finance minister since Labour returned to power nearly two years ago, having overseen some controversial choices regarding state spending and taxes that contributed to Starmer’s demise

Andy Burnham, frontrunner to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and PM calls for a “positive process of renewal for our party and our country.”

EU says ‘reassessing’ July summit plan with UK after Starmer resignation

The EU said it was “reassessing” with Britain plans for a summit on post-Brexit ties on July 22 after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation.

European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho said Brussels and London were looking into “the opportunity of still holding the summit … and we will take it from here”.

21, June 2026

Middle East War: top negotiator says Iran counts American threats for nothing ⁰

Iran’s top negotiator in talks with the United States has dismissed US President Donald Trump’s latest worthless threats, saying the armed forces are ready to respond “in another way” to any American aggression.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is leading Iran’s delegation at the Switzerland talks, took to his X account to deliver a fierce rebuke of Trump’s recent rhetoric.

“Don’t they think that if their threats had any effect, they wouldn’t have reached today’s state of desperation?” he said.

He added that Iran counts American threats for nothing.

He cautioned American officials to watch what they are saying as Iranian armed forces are “ready to respond to them in another way.”

“Whatever they say, we are the ones who take action,” Qalibaf emphasized.

Qalibaf was responding to the US president who on Sunday threatened to restart war with Iran, warning Tehran to rein in its allies in Lebanon or face renewed and more powerful US military strikes.

“Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform, referring to US war against the Islamic Republic, which started late February.

According to Fox News, Trump also warned that if Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, “you won’t have a country.”

“We may take over the Strait, if we have to,” Trump said.

A source told Press TV that the Iranian delegation to Swiss talks raised objections directly with the American side over Trump’s latest threat of further military strikes, and is now weighing its next steps.

“The Iranian delegation has raised its objections to the American side and is currently assessing the conditions to give a proper response to Trump’s verbal threats,” the source said on Sunday.

On Saturday, Iran’s central military command officially declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all maritime traffic, citing US and Israeli violations of the recently-signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Tehran and Washington.

Iranian negotiating teams leaves Swiss talks in protest

Meanwhile, a source close to the negotiating team told Tasnim news agency that the Iranian negotiating delegation left the talks in Switzerland site in protest over Trump’s threats.

The source said that following Trump’s threat, the negotiations in Switzerland were halted, and their final outcome remains unclear.

Source: Presstv

16, June 2026

Iran deal: the cards are now in Tehran’s favour ⁰

The US president’s 80th birthday began with a bang that kicked off on social media, resonated in the roars on the White House South Lawn as fighters pummeled each other in a cage, and left Middle East experts reeling as they examined the geostrategic impact of Donald Trump’s birthday gift to the world.

The president had made it known that he wanted an Iran “peace deal” on his birthday, come what may. So, when Israel kicked off the day with strikes in Dahiyeh, the Hezbollah stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut, he was incensed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack,” Trump fumed in an interview with US news site Axios. “He has no fucking judgement,” he added.

By the end of the day, the storm had settled. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to X to announce a deal had been reached, which was followed by a Trump post on Truth Social declaring “The Deal” was “now complete”. The 55-word message stated that the US president had “authorized” the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and that “ships of the world” could “start their engines”.

This was just as things were before the US and Israel started the Iran war, when the Strait of Hormuz was open for business with 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas passing through the critical waterway.

‘Back to square one’

Now that the celebrations on the South Lawn have wrapped up, the international community is looking the gift horse in the mouth and asking who got the biggest party favor at the end of the day.

Trump’s Sunday night announcement was “both a birthday gift for himself and a gift for the Iranian regime”, said Karim Emile Bitar, international relations professor at Beirut’s Saint Joseph University and lecturer at Paris-based Sciences Po university.

“It is quite ironic that the main accomplishment of this deal is reopening a strait (the Strait of Hormuz) that was wide open four months ago. It showed that Iran found out that the control of the strait could be a deterrent, arguably even more important than a nuclear deterrent, that they could have the entire world’s economy basically slowed down by simply closing this trade,” Bitar noted.

The details of what Trump calls “the deal” and diplomats call “the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)” will not be released before Friday. But news reports based on multiple sources say the agreement provides for a 60-day cessation of hostilities during which the two sides will negotiate a final peace deal.

While Trump’s message on Sunday declared the Strait of Hormuz would be opened “toll free”, senior administration officials had no details on the time schedules.

In an interview with CNBC television on Monday, Vice President JD Vance was asked if the MoU provided a toll-free opening of the waterway for just the initial 60-day period. Vance replied that, “Our expectation is that the strait is going to be opened in a toll-free way for the long term, and that’s the sort of thing that we’re going to figure out in these technical negotiations.”

Trump on Monday declared that many ships loaded with oil are starting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “totally safe, secure and pristine”. But maritime trackers have yet to show an uptick in traffic since the deal was announced. Minesweeping operations are expected to last several weeks, while France and the UK prepare a support mission to help the reopening of the vital waterway.

More than a century after US writer and satirist Mark Twain wryly noted that, “God created war so that Americans would learn geography,” the Trump administration may have finally had a crash course in geostrategic waterways. But critics say the lesson came too late for Washington, handing Tehran a win as the war dragged past the three-month mark.

“Over the three-month trajectory, what Iran showed is that, yes, they were the underdog, attacked by two nuclear powers with military supremacy. But they also had their own cards to play,” said Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for International Policy, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

“The defining point in this war is the strategic geographic advantage that Iran has over the Strait of Hormuz. And it seems like President Trump and the US just couldn’t get them to reopen the strait with force. This brought [the US] to the negotiating table and, essentially, back to square one, because the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t even a problem before the war.”

First US president to negotiate directly with Iran

In the past, the US has held only indirect, mediated talks with the Islamic Republic, such as the negotiations leading up to the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear deal Iran signed with six world powers – during the presidency of Barack Obama.

But Washington has never had to negotiate with Iran for peace, noted FRANCE 24’s Noga Tarnopolsky, reporting from Jerusalem.

“No previous American president has tried to make peace with the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was never on the table, there was never an actual war between the United States and Iran necessitating a peace. Before this, Iran has always been viewed as a threshold nuclear state that is increasingly dangerous. That was the aim of Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, to try and curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. It didn’t go beyond that,” Tarnopolsky explained.

The period between the 2015 signing of the JCPOA and Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal during his first presidency were “the only three years when Iran’s nuclear program was held back and was scrutinized by international authorities”, Tarnopolsky said.

Details of Iran’s nuclear commitments under the terms of the new Islamabad MoU have been vague. In his comments to the press, Trump has noted that “the Iranian enriched uranium file will be dealt with” at a later date. The US president also stressed that the nuclear issue will be the focus of in-depth and direct negotiations during the 60 days following the signing of the agreement.

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program was for civilian energy purposes only, and under the JCPOA its enrichment activities were limited to 3.67 percent – a level sufficient to power nuclear reactors, but far short of the 90 percent needed for weapons. After Trump withdrew from the agreement, Iran announced it would begin enriching to 60 percent.

Under the JCPOA, Tehran also agreed to nuclear inspections by the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, and had begun complying with shipping parts of its uranium stockpile to Russia, which was also a signatory to the 2015 nuclear deal.

The Iran war has not resolved the critical nuclear non-proliferation issue, Bitar noted, adding that the current deal leaves the world worse off.

“The Iranians did not make any concessions so far. They just reiterated what they had said for the past 20 years, and that was already clearly written in the JCPOA,” he said.

“We’re back to the original sin of Donald Trump: out of obsession or jealousy [of] Barack Obama, tearing down an agreement that was much better negotiated – which was not just a bilateral US-Iranian agreement but that also involved Europe, the United Nations, Russia and China. That we have reached this stage of America showing its impotence is, to a large extent, because Donald Trump committed this major mistake of tearing up the JCPOA in 2018.”

‘Good old protection racket’ of Gulf states

Iran’s nuclear ambitions were a major threat to the Gulf states and a key driver of the US security umbrella for oil-rich Sunni monarchies facing a giant Shiite power across the Persian Gulf.

The Iran war has forced the Gulf states to hedge their security bets as missiles from Tehran wreaked havoc on their economies. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates agreed to pay Iran billions of dollars in exchange for a de-escalation.

Sources told Reuters that the UAE had agreed to release a total of $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered. While there was no clarity on whether the funds earmarked for the transfers belong to the UAE or originate in long-blocked Iranian accounts in the UAE banking system, the report noted that Iranian attacks on Emirati facilities had decreased over the past few weeks.

“Deep down, there is no love lost between the Iranian and Emirati regimes. But it’s definitely true that the UAE realized that their security and economic development was heavily dependent on having better relations with Iran. So they seem to have succumbed to the good old protection racket,” said Bitar.

The lifting of Western sanctions and access to Iran’s frozen funds abroad have been key demands of the Islamic regime. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that the MoU stipulates the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day negotiation period. The report has not been confirmed by Iranian or US authorities.

‘Victim of American amateurism, Iranian cynicism and Israeli hubris’

While the international community has been left in the dark about much of the details of the Islamabad MoU, the one issue that Pakistani PM Sharif has confirmed is that the cessation of hostilities covers all fronts, “including Lebanon”.

But Sharif has been here before. On April 8, just hours after Sharif declared that a Pakistan-mediated US-Iran ceasefire included Lebanon, the Israeli military conducted massive strikes across Lebanon, offloading more than 100 bombs in just 10 minutes and killing more than 360 people under Operation Eternal Darkness. The Lebanese called it “Black Wednesday”.

Trump’s expletive-riddled birthday rant against Netanyahu on Sunday underscored his fears that Israel, which was not involved in the MoU negotiations, could scupper the latest agreement.

“This deal has been considered unacceptable by Israel. Israel seems determined to continue its occupation of south Lebanon. It is an electoral season in Israel,” said Bitar, referring to Israeli legislative elections being held later this year. “So, I very much doubt that Netanyahu can withdraw from Lebanon. At the same time, this deal does not seem to have imposed on Iran any conditions to stop financing and supporting Hezbollah. So, Lebanon could once again end up being the victim of American amateurism, Iranian cynicism and Israeli hubris.”

The biggest losers are the Iranian people, who rose up in mass protests against the regime in December-January. Five months after Trump told Iranians who were protesting that “help is on its way”, the regime today is more hardline than it was before the start of the war, experts say.

“This really solidified the regime and their argument that Iran is the only country in the region that can fight two superpowers. And they were able to defend the country’s sovereignty, independence, the system and bring the world’s [foremost] superpower to the negotiating table in three months,” said Mortazavi.

Israel’s initial decapitation strikes at the start of the war might have killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has close links to Iran’s hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), whose powers have increased since the February strikes.

“The regime in Iran is more emboldened and more hardline, consolidated by an IRGC that is essentially governing in a police state fashion,” said Tara Kangarlou, adjunct professor at Georgetown University and author of “The Heartbeat of Iran”, in an interview.

“Life for ordinary Iranians in Iran is worse than how it was before the war against a collapsed economy. They’re left with a younger, more emboldened Khamenei regime. This is not what they wanted and asked the world for. The regime has stayed and Donald Trump is presumably interested in making a peace with this same regime. The price has been paid by ordinary people.”

Source: France 24