9, January 2022
Russia rules out any concession over Ukraine in talks with US 0
Russia ruled out Sunday any concession at talks with the United States on soaring tensions over Ukraine as Moscow seeks a wide-ranging new security arrangement with the West but faces strong pressure to pull back troops.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian news agencies ahead of his talks in Geneva the Kremlin was also “disappointed” with signals coming from both Washington and Brussels, where NATO and the European Union are based.
The high-level discussions start a week of diplomacy in which Russia will meet with NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), with the US trying to assure European allies they will not be sidelined.
Russia since late last year has amassed tens of thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border and demanded guarantees that NATO will not expand further eastward.
The Kremlin is insisting NATO must never grant membership to ex-Soviet Ukraine, which is pushing to join.
The United States, to be represented by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, agreed to talks even though it made plain that many of Moscow’s proposals are non-starters.
Originally scheduled to start on Monday, Sherman is now due to have a working dinner with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday evening, said a State Department spokesperson.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, dismissing Moscow’s demands as “gaslighting”, has insisted that talks will yield no progress so long as Russia has a “gun to Ukraine’s head”.
“We’re prepared to respond forcefully to further Russian aggression. But a diplomatic solution is still possible and preferable if Russia chooses it,” Blinken said Friday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met his US counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva in June and agreed on regular “stability” talks between Sherman and Ryabkov, who will again lead the Russian delegation.
‘Massive’ retaliation
In two phone calls to Putin, Biden has warned of severe consequences if Russia invades Ukraine.
Measures under consideration include sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, cancelling Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany or, in the most drastic scenario, severing Russia’s links to the world’s banking system.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that Washington would also send more troops to eastern NATO members such as Poland and the Baltics if Russia invaded.
Europeans have showed solidarity, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell visiting the frontline in Ukraine, although some nations are expected to hesitate at the strongest measures.
“Whatever the solution, Europe has to be involved,” EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said.
Russia insists it was deceived after the Cold War and understood that NATO would not expand.
Instead, the US-led alliance accepted most of the former Warsaw Pact nations and the three Baltic nations that were under Soviet rule.
Russia has inflicted intense pressure on neighbouring Ukraine since 2014 after a revolution overthrew a government that had sided with the Kremlin against moving closer to Europe.
Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and backs an insurgency in eastern Ukraine in which more than 13,000 people have died.
At a time that Russia is also intervening to shore up allies facing popular uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Moscow has insisted it wants concrete progress in talks with Washington.
Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov warned after the call with Biden that the United States would make a “colossal mistake” if it went ahead with sanctions.
‘Gigantic bluff’?
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, meeting foreign ministers of the alliance on Friday, said there remained real risks of a Russian invasion.
But John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, described the Russian troop build-up as a “gigantic bluff” by Putin to seek a negotiated agreement.
“They are trying to see if the Biden administration or Europe will blink,” said Herbst, now at the Atlantic Council think tank.
“As long as the Biden administration remains at least as strong as it is now,” he said, “it probably is enough to keep Putin from striking large into Ukraine, but I don’t rule out something smaller.”
Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said the Geneva talks were more about preventing the Ukraine crisis from accelerating than reaching a major deal.
“I think this is about pulling the pendulum back, if we can, towards thicker interaction and more effective diplomacy and communication — not permanent and forever resolution of all problems.”
While also downplaying the possibility of a full-scale invasion, Rojansky said the risks of the Russian build-up were real.
“There is the principle of Chekhov — you put a loaded gun on the stage in Act One and it has to be fired by Act Three.”
Source: AFP



















18, January 2022
US Politics: Joe Biden enters second year looking to fight after signature legislation stalls 0
Joe Biden 1.0 was a calming, grandfatherly figure, a low-key veteran coming out of retirement in 2020 to heal a nation deeply divided by Donald Trump. A year later, meet Biden 2.0 — the frustrated, angry fighter.
“I’m tired of being quiet,” he said last week in a blistering speech.
Biden was referring specifically to his many fruitless “quiet conversations” behind the scenes with senators in a doomed effort to get his signature legislation on voting rights passed. He could just as well have been summing up the exasperation of his first 12 months in the Oval Office.
And if 2021 saw mild Biden, 2022 looks set to feature a louder, more pugnacious version — a president running out of time, patience and allies to save what remain of his ambitions.
Biden took office January 20, 2021 — at 78, the oldest man to ever become US president — facing incredible challenges.
Covid-19 was out of control, Trump’s supporters had just two weeks earlier tried overturning the presidential election, the economy was comatose, and around the world US allies were reeling in Trump shock of their own.
Biden’s answer to all that — not to mention to the explosive tensions over racism after a series of Black Americans were killed during botched arrests — was to promise competency, old-fashioned decency and unity.
“My whole soul is in this. Bringing America together, uniting our people,” Biden pledged in his inaugural address.
And he even seemed to have a chance of pulling it off.
Democrats narrowly controlled both houses of Congress, Trump had been banished from Twitter, and Covid vaccines were ready.
“There were high expectations that Biden, given his experience and his knowledge of Washington, would be able… to make the trains run on time again,” said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It was all about a return to normalcy.”
Fast forward to the start of Biden’s second year.
Beset by the Delta and Omicron Covid variants, an ever-more divided America, and the likely loss of Congress to the Republicans in November’s midterm elections, Biden’s luck at the age of 79 seems to have run short.
With a majority of just one in the Senate and barely more than that in the House, his huge social spending plan — called Build Back Better — is dead in the water. Ditto the voting rights package he says is needed to save US democracy from Trump’s supporters.
A centrist at heart, Biden has failed to connect with the right or satisfy his own party’s left. As he’s discovering, the center today is hard to find.
Average approval polls on fivethirtyeight.com are at a lowly 42 percent, down from 53. A recent Quinnipiac poll, while an outlier, posted a disturbing 33 percent approval.
Abroad, the picture is similar.
While world allies do like having a United States not governed by Trump back, the country’s humiliating military exit from Afghanistan torpedoed the Biden administration’s aura of professionalism. Certainly Russia seems unconcerned, as it masses troops on Ukraine’s border.
It all adds up to a bitter awakening from the days when the White House buzzed with idealism and talk of Biden emulating his hero Franklin Roosevelt, who led America through the Great Depression in the 1930s.
“Their optimism, combined with the public expectation that all of this would be solved, led them down a path of hubris,” Brown said.
‘Less shouting’ or ‘fight’?
There’s still a scenario where Biden comes out on top: the pandemic burns out, the economy stabilizes, inflation recedes, and with the subsequent feel-good factor Biden gets his party to reverse those legislative defeats just in time for the midterms.
Biden’s aides also point out they got Congress to pass the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, juicing a Covid-ravaged economy and preventing more widespread misery. Remarkably, Democrats also got strong Republican support in passing a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package.
All that with a razor-thin majority in Congress.
The more likely outcome for 2022, though, is continued Democratic infighting, followed by Republicans winning one or both chambers of Congress in November.
At that point, Biden can expect aggressive House investigations, and even possibly impeachment, as Republicans seek to further undermine their opponents’ ability to govern.
And it would become increasingly likely a 2024 White House challenge could come from Trump, even as the former president continues to try to subvert the 2020 election.
So much for Biden’s vow to restore “the soul of America.”
David Ignatius, a Washington Post columnist at the heart of the mainstream establishment, advises Biden to pivot back to “less shouting and more of Biden’s trademark common sense.”
But Biden, his back against the wall, is signaling that he sees things more darkly going into 2022.
“I did not seek this fight,” he said in another dramatic speech this month, this time commemorating the anniversary of the January 6 storming of Congress by Trump supporters.
“But I will not shrink from it either,” Biden said. “I will stand in this breach.”
Source: AFP