Today the World Bank announced a new multi-partner fund that will pool funding from the global community — including donor countries, the private sector and foundations — for scalable pathways to greenhouse gas emission reduction. The Scaling Climate Action by Lowering Emissions (SCALE) partnership will provide grants for verifiable emissions reductions and expand the funding sources for global public goods.

 “Climate finance needs major new mechanisms that pool funding from the global community to accomplish actual reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across the developing world. SCALE offers a key non-fragmented avenue for the global community to take action on climate change,” said David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group. “The verifiable emission reductions created by SCALE and similar mechanisms will also be an important step toward building effective carbon credit markets.”

 SCALE will deploy Results-Based Climate Finance where countries receive grant payments for achieving pre-agreed, verifiable results, drawing on twenty years of World Bank Group experience in this area.

 SCALE will support countries to build a track record of generating emission reductions from impactful programs and policies that they can apply toward their national emission reduction targets. SCALE will also yield excess credits that can be offered in carbon markets with the potential to unlock additional private sector funding.

 SCALE will pool public and private resources to (i) channel additional funding to middle and low-income countries’ emission reduction programs; (ii) help bridge the gap between the supply of and demand for high-quality emission reduction credits by supporting large-scale climate investments; and (iii) help countries develop high integrity credits and enhance their access to international carbon markets.

 Social inclusion is embedded in the design of all SCALE programs. An associated fund within the SCALE umbrella – Enabling Access to Benefits while Lowering Emissions (EnABLE) – enhances the inclusion of marginalized communities and indigenous peoples in programs under the partnership through specially designed benefit sharing arrangements.

The shrinking value of the currencies of most developing economies is driving up food and fuel prices in ways that could deepen the food and energy crises that many of them already face, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.

In U.S. dollar terms, the prices of most commodities have declined from their recent peaks amid concerns of an impending global recession, the report documents. From the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through the end of last month, the price of Brent crude oil in U.S. dollars fell nearly 6%. Yet, because of currency depreciations, almost 60% of oil-importing emerging-market and developing economies saw an increase in domestic-currency oil prices during this period. Nearly 90% of these economies also saw a larger increase in wheat prices in local-currency terms compared to the rise in U.S. dollars.

Elevated prices of energy commodities that serve as inputs to agricultural production have been driving up food prices. During the first three quarters of 2022, food-price inflation in South Asia averaged more than 20%. Food price inflation in other regions, including Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, averaged between 12 and 15%. East Asia and the Pacific has been the only region with low food-price inflation, partly because of broadly stable prices of rice, the region’s key staple.

“Although many commodity prices have retreated from their peaks, they are still high compared to their average level over the past five years,” said Pablo Saavedra, the World Bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions. “A further spike in world food prices could prolong the challenges of food insecurity across developing countries. An array of policies is needed to foster supply, facilitate distribution, and support real incomes.”

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, energy prices have been quite volatile but are now expected to decline. After surging by about 60% in 2022, energy prices are projected to decline 11% in 2023. Despite this moderation, energy prices next year will still be 75% above their average over the past five years.

The price of Brent crude oil is expected to average $92 a barrel in 2023—well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel. Both natural gas and coal prices are projected to ease in 2023 from record highs in 2022. However, by 2024, Australian coal and U.S. natural-gas prices are still expected to be double their average over the past five years, while European natural gas prices could be nearly four times higher. Coal production is projected to significantly increase as several major exporters boost output, putting climate-change goals at risk.

“The combination of elevated commodity prices and persistent currency depreciations translates into higher inflation in many countries,” said Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group and EFI Chief Economist, which produces the Outlook report. “Policymakers in emerging market and developing economies have limited room to manage the most pronounced global inflation cycle in decades. They need to carefully calibrate monetary and fiscal policies, clearly communicate their plans, and get ready for a period of even higher volatility in global financial and commodity markets.”

Agricultural prices are expected to decline 5% next year. Wheat prices in the third quarter of 2022 fell nearly 20% but remain 24% higher than a year ago. The decline in agricultural prices in 2023 reflects a better-than-projected global wheat crop, stable supplies in the rice market, and the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine. Metal prices are projected to decline 15% in 2023, largely because of weaker global growth and concerns about a slowdown in China.

The outlook for commodity prices is subject to many risks. Energy markets face significant supply concerns as worries about the availability of energy during the upcoming winter will intensify in Europe. Higher-than-expected energy prices could feed through to non-energy prices, especially food, prolonging challenges associated with food insecurity. A sharper slowdown in global growth also presents a key risk, especially for crude oil and metals prices.

“The forecast of a decline in agricultural prices is subject to an array of risks,” said John Baffes, Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group. “First, export disruptions by Ukraine or Russia could again interrupt global grain supplies. Second, additional increases in energy prices could exert upward pressure on grain and edible oil prices. Third, adverse weather patterns can reduce yields; 2023 is likely to be the third La Niña year in a row, potentially reducing yields of key crops in South America and Southern Africa.”

Concerns about a possible global recession next year have already contributed to a sharp decline in copper and aluminum prices. A Special Focus section of the report examines the drivers of aluminum and copper prices and explores implications for emerging market and developing economies that export these commodities. Prices will likely remain volatile as the energy transition unfolds and demand shifts from fossil fuels to renewables, which will benefit some metal producers. Metal exporters can make the most of the resulting opportunities for growth over the medium term while limiting the impact of price volatility by ensuring they have well-designed fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, the report highlights.

In fiscal 2022, the World Bank Group delivered a record US$31.7 billion in fiscal year 2022 (FY22) to help countries address climate change, a 19% increase from the US$26.6 billion all-time high in financing reached in the previous fiscal year. The Bank Group continues to be the largest multilateral financier of climate action in developing countries.

“In our last fiscal year ending June 2022, we provided a record US$31.7 billion to countries to identify and enable high-priority climate-related projects as part of their development plans.” said David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group. “We will continue providing solutions to pool funding from the global community for impactful and scalable projects that reduce GHG emissions, improve resilience, and enable the private sector.”

Financing for climate action in FY22—which covers July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022—reached 36% of total Bank Group financing. This exceeds the target set in the Group’s Climate Change Action Plan for 2021-2025 to deploy an average of 35% of the institution’s financing in support of climate action.

IBRD and IDA together delivered $26.2 billion in FY22 in climate finance. Nearly half of that—$12.9 billion—specifically supported investments in adaptation and resilience. IFC, the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, delivered an unprecedented $4.4 billion in climate finance and mobilized an additional $3.3 billion from other sources. MIGA, the World Bank Group’s political risk insurance and credit enhancement arm, delivered $1.1 billion in climate finance.

As part of its ongoing effort to help countries integrate climate and development objectives, the Bank Group recently launched a number of Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). CCDRs are a new core diagnostic to help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce GHG emissions and boost adaptation. A summary of the preliminary findings of these reports will be published in coming months to foster action-oriented discussion in the global community.

By Atem Thomas Ashu

Environmental Affairs editor

As the global food prices continue to escalate, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been updating the world on the crisis playing out in every nook and cranny of the world. Here below is an update of the situation published by the global monetary fund.

Estimating Financial and Fiscal Costs of the Global Food Crisis Against the backdrop of rising global food insecurity, a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) paper estimated that higher food and fertilizer import prices will add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the balance of payments of the 48 most affected countries. 

The war in Ukraine continues to affect food production and distribution amidst a worldwide food crisis already stressed by regional conflicts, climate shocks, and the pandemic. The IMF paper identifies 48 countries, primarily low-income countries in the Sahel and other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, that are most affected because they face significant import price pressures or have portions of their populations experiencing acute food insecurity, as defined by the World Food Programme (WFP). From a fiscal perspective, the analysis suggests that $5 billion to $7 billion in further spending is needed to assist vulnerable households in these countries. 

An additional $50 billion is required to end acute food insecurity over the next 12 months. Although estimating the cost of the food crisis is difficult in terms of data availability and the multiple factors driving price hikes, the report attempts to quantify costs using three approaches: the impact of the terms-of-trade shock on countries facing higher staple and fertilizer prices, the budgetary cost of supporting the poorest households, and the financial cost of eradicating acute food insecurity. 

The first approach—approximating $9 billion in foreign exchange needs over 2022/23 for the 48 most affected countries—employs international price changes for five essential cereals and three fertilizers. The price differentials are applied to the latest (September) import volumes assumed to grow proportionately with real gross domestic product and compared to IMF end-of-2021 price forecasts as a baseline scenario. The analysis offers a few caveats, including that it is not assumed that import volumes respond to price changes in the short term but will react over time. 

Furthermore, the $9 million in financing linked with higher food and fertilizer prices does not account for other balance-of-payments pressures such as commodity (particularly energy) price changes and rising interest rates on borrowing abroad. The second approach uses the most recent food inflation data to estimate the $5 billion to $7 billion needed to compensate households living on less than $1.90 per capita per day in the 48 countries identified. The methodology assumes 6-month compensation and unchanged household budget allocation for food. The range of total fiscal costs reflects cross-country variation in inflation and represents 0.15 percent to 0.30 percent of gross domestic product. Estimates do not include how other price hikes, such as for fuel for transport and cooking, would need to be factored into increases in social spending. 

The third approach applies the WFP’s total annual operational cost of $22.2 billion to support 151.6 million people to the 345 million people now suffering from acute malnutrition or worse to arrive at the $50 billion figure associated with lifting people out of acute food insecurity for 12 months. The IMF report and accompanying blogs highlight that many of the 48 countries affected by the food crisis face several overlapping vulnerabilities and must receive further humanitarian assistance and concessional financing from development partners. Other policy responses include implementing effective public expenditure for emergency relief, facilitating regional trade and reducing food export bans, improving input access for food production and distribution, and investing in climate-smart agriculture.

In South Sudan, the high levels of acute food insecurity are causing a high level of hunger-related deaths as food insecurity reaches emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes likely by January 2023, driven by prolonged conflict and recurrent flooding (FEWS NET). A fourth consecutive year of flooding is expected to result in another year of livestock and crop losses as flooding continues based on forecasts for above-average rainfall amid already high river levels and highly saturated soils. Humanitarian food assistance deliveries continue to reach areas of great concern across South Sudan to mitigate widespread acute food insecurity, although they are reaching only 20 percent of people in need. 

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network continues to assess a credible famine (IPC Phase 5) scenario given the high proportion of the population likely to face significant food consumption gaps and their vulnerability to new shocks. Fangak and Canal/Pigi are among the areas of most significant concern for this risk of famine (IPC Phase 5). If flood severity exceeds that of 2021 or if conflict intensifies, restricting household movement and humanitarian access, famine could occur. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) reflects an already high level of hunger-related mortality in South Sudan (FEWS NET). 

Higher fertilizer prices could decrease cereal production by 16 percent during the 2022 cropping season (WFP). Fertilizer prices more than doubled from their levels a year ago in East Africa within 2 months of the onset of the war in Ukraine. This coincided with the 2022 primary season crop planting, disrupting farming operations. There have also been fertilizer price hikes region-wide, with fuel prices 17 percent to 75 percent higher in April 2022 than a year earlier. 

The steepest increases have been observed in Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan and have limited farmers’ ability to use farm machinery and transport and will further reduce their ability to grow sufficient crops this year. The WFP estimates that cereal production during the 2022 cropping year could be 16 percent lower than in 2021 because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. Total 2022 cereal production will be about 37.8 million tonnes, down from 45.2 million in 2021. The most significant declines in cereal production will be in Ethiopia (21 percent), Kenya (12 percent), and Sudan (12 percent).

Compiled by Alain Agbor Ebot

The pound hit a record low against the dollar Monday on surging fears about the UK economy after the government unveiled a huge tax-cutting budget.

The selloff came as equity markets across Asia and Europe fell again owing to a growing expectation that central bank interest rate hikes to fight runaway inflation would lead to deep and painful recessions. Oil also suffered heftier selling.

Officials in several countries including the United States, Britain, Switzerland and Sweden announced more increases in the cost of borrowing.

The moves sent equity markets deep into the red again after officials reiterated their focus on fighting inflation, even if that means causing a recession.

But the biggest casualty of the week was the pound, which fell below $1.10 for the first time since 1985 as new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng announced his controversial mini-budget.

It then extended the losses Monday to briefly touch an all-time low of $1.0350 in Asian trade after he said he intended to unveil further reductions, despite his budget causing ructions on London’s markets.

It also fell to a two-year low against the euro, though the single currency remains under pressure against the dollar, sitting at 2002 levels.

Now, observers are warning that the pound could fall even further.

“The pound’s crash is showing markets have a lack of confidence in the UK and that its financial strength is under siege,” said Jessica Amir, of Saxo Capital Markets.

“The pound is a whisker away from parity and the situation is going to only worsen from here.”

Kwarteng, who was appointed by Liz Truss after she became prime minister earlier this month, said he planned to slash taxes to kickstart the British economy and provide cash to cushion families from rocketing energy costs.

But investors were spooked by the huge amount of borrowing likely needed for the multi-billion-pound package, which critics said would benefit the rich far more than the poorest during a cost-of-living crisis.

Sterling’s drop has led to speculation the Bank of England will have to step in with an emergency interest rate hike to give the currency a much-needed shot in the arm.

‘Macau casinos soar’

“Whether or not the UK government announcement of the biggest tax reduction since 1972… will in time yield a significant growth dividend is not something markets are yet willing to contemplate,” said National Australia Bank’s Ray Attrill.

“Instead, they were consumed by worries over the scale of near-term UK government financing needs, at a time when the current account deficit is running at more than eight percent of GDP.”

He added: “Chatter about a possible UK sovereign rating downgrade has already begun.”

And former US treasury secretary Lawrence Summers was scathing of Britain’s recent monetary policy decisions.

“It makes me very sorry to say, but I think the UK is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market,” he told Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week last week.

“Between Brexit, how far the Bank of England got behind the curve and now these fiscal policies, I think Britain will be remembered for having (pursued) the worst macroeconomic policies of any major country in a long time.”

The collapse in sterling came as markets across the world are sent into a spin by recession worries caused by a sharp tightening of monetary policy by central banks fighting decades-high inflation.

New York’s three main indexes ended well down, with the Dow at a two-year low, and Asia followed suit.

Tokyo shed more than two percent as traders there returned from a long weekend break, while Seoul was off more than three percent, with Sydney, Shanghai, Mumbai, Singapore, Taipei and Jakarta also tanking.

Hong Kong was also down having reversed early gains that came after the city said it would relax strict hotel quarantine measures for international travelers.

Still, Macau casino stocks rallied as the city said it would accept Chinese tour groups again from November, having been blocked during the pandemic.

London edged up tentatively after Friday’s hammering, while Paris and Frankfurt were also higher.

Oil prices ticked lower, extending the big losses suffered Friday as expectations that a recession is looming the surging greenback added to the sell-off in crude, which is priced in dollars and therefore more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Both main contracts are sitting at their lowest levels since January, having wiped out all the gains seen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Black Gold Investors’ Gary Ross described the strong dollar as “a wrecking ball for commodities”.

Source: AFP