I am not oblivious of our Anglophone concerns (the concerns of we whose parents were Southern Cameroonians) nor am I willingly letting up on our craving to be the next president.

We still think the next president should be an Anglophone, both as our fair chance if we must have a sense of belonging and as a strategy to use the pain of the Ambazonia war and its causes to secure our presidential craving.

Besides the need for quality Anglophone leadership to redeem Cameroon, this would also be a pacification concession like Yoruba Olusegun Obasanjo more or less given rite (right?) of passage in Nigeria in 1999 to make up for the MKO Abiola tragedy and the Yoruba victimization that followed. That ought to be a major consideration by political actors on the election stage. However, without being conformist, I face the reality that such deals fit easily in a setting of a level playing field or during a fresh start like in Nigeria’s return to civilian rule after a decade-and-a-half of military rule, nearly half of it under bloody dictator, General Sani Abacha.

In this Cameroonian context, the field is not level. The opposition still has a strong man or a strong man regime to dislodge. It’s first and foremost about the capability to win. Let it not be understood that I imply Anglophone politicians are lame ducks and can only be offered a political victory on a platter of gold. Not at all. Other times have been more favourable to Anglophone candidates and more viable Anglophones have rocked the political landscape by right and potentials.

Not this year, unfortunately. And I face the reality with deep regrets for myself as an Anglophone and pity for our two (well, three) otherwise sterling Anglophones on the ballot.

I know I’ll be pardoned some day for this frank talk, but I want to tell our two Anglophone brothers in the frontline of this presidential race, Akere Muna and Joshua Osih (well, three, if we add freshman Ateki Caxton of Celestine Bedzingui’s PAL), that neither of them will win this presidential election by one man, one vote, except something extraordinary happens. In politics, everything is possible. But the stakes are too high this year and beyond considerations of equitable sharing for anything to be left to chance. It’s about winnability and it’s about numbers which are seen swirling elsewhere. So, may my brothers bear with me for making this call. I have a word or two for Muna and Osih:

MUNA: I like him for his persona, his sterling career, his distance from dirt, his role in Transparency International that shone the spotlight on Cameroon corruption, his moral and tactical support to his late twosome brother Ni Ben. A senior colleague of mine who was close to the Muna brothers during the multiparty nascent years of the early 1990s described them thus: Akere is the master planner (the strategist); Ben (Muna) is the bulldozer. To me, this suggests every wall knocked down by Ben, Akere removed the concrete rods to enfeeble it.

I also love the way Akere managed to draw the line between his career and his politics or between his clients (sometimes the government and/or government officials) and his possible entanglements with government business. I have had occasion to say to big brother Akere how I feel about his person.

However, an election is not about goodness and rightness; it’s about numbers. In politics, numbers don’t hide. If goodness and rightness do not generate numbers, the votes won’t add up and nothing can be done about it.

Well, there is something to be done about it. That is appointments or compromise deals. Obviously short of the requisite numbers to trigger a mass following to win a nation-wide election, I think Akere would make a wonderful Prime Minister, especially in this context of the need for sanity (Transparency) in governance. That’s where I see him for now. How? I don’t know. Well, he would also count big where there is need for a compromise in the event of a deadlock, which we are likely to run into prior to or after this election.

MY ADVICE TO MUNA: Becoming president won’t be the greatest achievement of your rich public life. It’s been sterling through and through. Brilliant legal career, two-term Bar President, exposing corruption in Cameroon through Transparency International plus the rest of your brilliant international career with international lawyers’ unions and other international organizations. And, oh, Glencore – your nearly lone-ranger fight for restoration of Cameroon’s interests compromised in Glencore shaddy oil deals. The outcomes with Glencore ordered to pay over a trillion FCFA to Cameroon is a good reason to go to bed satisfied. I won’t be cowed by being called the son of my father’s as a way to bully me away from my dreams but it may be advisable for you to take a break on this race and wait for what could, after all, still come to you if your peers on the ballot think, at some point, that you can be the flag bearer or tie breaker. Because of who you are and the name you bear, you are more likely to face more scrutiny than others. You’d come across tall should you be the first to declare your willingness to support another candidate your peers would identify, if it’s not you. No, we won’t blame you for betraying Anglophones by giving in to a Francophone. The people need someone who can win first.

OSIH: 2011 was Joshua Osih’s year to have taken the nation by storm. I headlined in 2011: “Osih: The Candidate Voters Will Miss”. His eloquence, his mastery of issues, his bilingualism, his good looks, his age (early 40s then), his business successes as manager of thriving companies… all pointed to someone who can bring corporate ways to governance — good governance.

His tact, plus his courage to navigate and survive among known wolves at the helm of the SDF all or some of whom were certain to be Fru Ndi’s successor is a telltale. Those were wolves who had eaten SDF giants, greater than Osih. So, who would have imagined that this little boy would do such a clinical job to walk his way to the helm of the SDF without a total party collapse?

I even believe there is something providential about Osih’s rise to the top of the SDF. He didn’t have to knock down all the wolves. Curious ill-health and death took them in numbers and in quick succession off the stage just when Osih set his eyes on the party top job. In the end, it took just a little bloodletting to shove aside the remnant strongmen off Osih’s way. Some mourning — a little mourning for his twenty-something victims — and before long, it looked like a welcome venture to renew the party with some smart, young Turks.

I was in Bamenda the day in February 2018 that the iconic Ni John Fru Ndi literarily and literally handed the baton to Osih after a run halfway round the Bamenda Congress Hall chamber. Osih had swept the votes from about all regions in the party primaries, defeating or forcing SDF giants to flee the race. It was an avalanche, bigger than a landslide.

But Osih wasted that 2018 momentum. He delayed it. He hesitated. Had he hit the campaign trail with it, a whirlwind might have developed out of it. He did not. He waited until May to stage an ordinary rally in Mbouda. Too little too late. His campaign collapsed and he emerged a paltry fourth behind Biya, Kamto and Libii. He became SDF’s worst electoral disaster. Nor do I think he is set to do much better this year. It’s no longer or not yet Osih’s year, if the race is to win to Unity Palace.

The darker side of the story is, he is now viewed as one of those standing in the way of an opposition quest for a consensual – if not a single – candidate. He has not as much as accepted to have any entente with another candidate. He has not as much as attended even so far unproductive meetings to seek that goal. He is viewed as typically taking a half aim to achieve a position (a good score), knowing he won’t win anyway, which suggests he might have a hidden agenda.

MY ADVICE TO OSIH: This is not your year, unfortunately. You had it and will have it again, hopefully. You’re still young. Do not ruin your future with a present not your best chance to win. Launch a call for a consensual candidate and redeem your image for the future.

By Franklin Sone Bayen