A vicious war of secession has ravaged the two Anglophone regions of Cameroon since January 2018. Non-state militias warring with the government aim to create an independent Ambazonian state. While central Africa has seen its share of wars of secession (the majority of which culminate in an agreement between the parties), aspects of Cameroon’s secessionists distinguish them, and this war, from others.

To refer to the group in public by the wrong name amidst the wrong strangers could invite a beating or even one’s murder. Therefore, in public civilians refer to secessionists as the Amba, or the Amba Boys. Privately, those who support the secessionists refer to them as freedom fighters, restoration forces, or, the army. Those who oppose them refer to them as the boys, the Ambazonians, and the terrorists.

But Anglophone Cameroonians overwhelmingly view secessionists positively. This is so even when they object to their tactics. For instance, secessionists call for Ghost Towns, or city-wide strikes every Monday. They call, too, for boycotting all primary and secondary schools. A secondary school teacher in the Southwest Anglophone capital region of Buea noted, “I don’t agree with preventing children from going to school, but I support the secessionists’ aims. Therefore, I tolerate it.” Others, like this 35-year-old entrepreneur in Buea, say, “I completely support all actions the freedom fighters take, and I am honored to keep my daughter from school. Students are just pawns of the Cameroonian president.” When asked whether targeting children and teachers was legitimate he added, “Yes, they are supporting the Biya regime.”

This perspective is not limited to the Anglophone regions. Anglophones in Francophone Cameroon like this cab driver in the country’s largest city, Douala, say, “Francophone Cameroonians do not understand the Anglophones’ plight. They assume everything the freedom fighters do is bad. They never listen to us, and cannot be trusted, so, independence is our only option.”

During the first few months of the conflict, the secessionists generally targeted only those who disobeyed their orders, or who they suspected had government affiliations. This has changed drastically in recent months. In villages and cities spanning both Anglophone regions, the secessionists extort, kidnap, and rape civilians. Public opinion seems increasingly impervious to such offenses. The secessionists lack a central command, and so when rape or extortion occurs people are quick to pin it on imposters, not the real secessionists.

Such deflections are not entirely without merit. There are more than 20 secessionist groups fighting in the two Anglophone regions at the time of this writing in September of 2018. The majority of these arose during the summer, correlating directly with the violence spike against civilians. Additionally, the so-called interim Ambazonian government has condemned all attacks and denied all responsibility. Such refutations are near impossible to verify given the informal secessionist structure which often as not is controlled from outside Cameroon.

Interestingly, purported, legitimate secessionists have punished others for abusing civilians. In August, secessionist leaders in Buea apprehended, publicly beat, and disposed of four people. The four were extorting locals supposedly on behalf of the secessionists. At the same time, however, individuals claiming separatist affiliations continue extorting civilians without punishment.

Which brings us to this tale’s central oddity: Anglophone Cameroonians attribute magical powers, or juju, to those who they believe to be legitimate secessionist fighters. They believe secessionist fighters adhere to strict codes of conduct that abhor rape, murder, and extortion. They believe in return for abiding by these rules the secessionists can shapeshift and are impervious to bullets and knives. The Cameroonian military has repeatedly turned its weapons over to secessionist fighters without a fight. Secessionist fighter deaths fail to dispel the illusion. They are proof that the fighters broke the conduct code or were illegitimate secessionists in the first place. As Cameroon’s crisis worsens, understanding the socio-cultural underpinnings of the conflict remains critical.

Source: Modern Ghana

Activity on Cameroon’s social media space has intensified ahead of the October elections as users share footage of abuses and politicians tweet their every move in a bid to engage voters.

Nine candidates are contesting the October 7 poll, including President Paul Biya, who has ruled the country for 35 years and is hoping to be re-elected for a sixth time.

But this time, the 85-year-old broke with media tradition by announcing his candidacy on Twitter, a key indicator that social media is taking a central role in this year’s presidential election.

There is much greater potential in terms of reach than when their words are communicated through the written press or the radio.

‘Breaking with protocol’

During the last election in 2011, only a handful of candidates were using social media. Today, almost all of them have a dedicated team to ensure they are very much present online.

One of Biya’s main challengers is Joshua Osih, head of the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF), who has taken to engaging with voters online.

When he came under fire for “unpresidential behaviour” after posting a picture of himself at the airport in Paris, he hit back immediately on Twitter, saying that was exactly the point.

“I want to break with protocol and everything to do with the myth around the presidency,” he wrote. “I want to be close to the people I rule and not shut up in a palace.”

Why social media?

For candidates, going online offers far greater exposure than traditional forms of campaigning, explains Julie Owono, executive director of Internet Without Borders, an NGO.

“There is much greater potential in terms of reach than when their words are communicated through the written press or the radio,” she said.

For Owono, this increased presence online is the result of a significantly higher rate of internet connectivity in Cameroon.

Figures released earlier this month by the ministry of postal and telecoms services show connectivity jumped from a mere 0.24 percent of the population in 2011 to 35 percent last year. “There has been a fall in the cost of internet access and network quality has also improved,” she said.

Risk of fake news?

Although the official launch of the election campaign is only due to start on Saturday, social media is already highlighting prominent topics, especially the security crisis in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions.

Blighted by armed conflict, the two regions have remained largely inaccessible to the media and NGOs but those involved in the fighting have used social media to expose purported human rights violations by the other side.

Since the conflict began at the end of 2017, footage of alleged abuses involving both anglophone separatists and Cameroonian soldiers have been doing the rounds almost every day on social media.

A military policeman with his head cut off, villages burnt by the army, and even scenes of torture: all these excesses caught on camera are used by both sides to try and discredit the enemy.

Faced with the surge of horrific footage spreading online, the government has called for calm, denouncing the “inappropriate use of the internet”.

Both the increase in hate speech and the proliferation of “fake news” are proving to be “a threat to our right to reliable information, above all in an election period,” said Communications Minister Tchiroma Bakary.

In July, the minister dismissed out of hand a video purportedly showing abuse by Cameroonian soldiers in the country’s Far North Region, where troops are deployed to root out Boko Haram jihadists.

Several weeks later, an investigation was opened and several soldiers were arrested. “The main challenge regarding the use of social networks is disinformation,” said Janvier Ngnoulaye, who heads an NGO called Internet Society Cameroon.

Will gov’t shutdown social media?

With less than three weeks until the vote, Biya’s supporters, who see him as best placed to handle the separatist crisis and the threat posed by Boko Haram, maintain that footage of alleged abuses by the army was put online in order to sabotage his re-election bid.

“It’s all about harming Biya’s image,” a security source told AFP. In fact, the campaign has sparked an online war of images: when one side posts pictures of roads in disrepair, the other responds with photos of huge construction projects, such as the motorway between Yaounde and Douala.

Earlier this month, a misleading rumour began circulating on social networks suggesting that Yaounde was going to shut down internet access during the vote, as happened in Mali in August.

“Fake news,” responded the communications minister. But such fears are not entirely unfounded. In early 2017, as the separatist protests multiplied in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions, Yaounde sought to stamp out the unrest by cutting off internet access in the two areas for over three months.

AFP

Campaigning for Cameroon’s October 7 presidential election officially begun Saturday. Opposition parties have failed to agree on a single candidate to face incumbent President Paul Biya and are suspicious of each other as they maneuver to unseat the man who has ruled Cameroon since for more than three and a half decades.

Thousands of people march through the streets of the northern Cameroon town of Garoua, singing and pledging their support for Paul Biya as campaigns for the October 7 presidential election begin. The people are from the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), and 20 other political parties whose leaders, last July, announced that they had endorsed the candidacy of Biya and had asked their supporters to vote for him.

The National Salvation Front party of Cameroon’s communication minister, Issa Tchiroma, is one of the parties that stands strong in support of Biya. Tchiroma says Biya is the only one seen as protecting Cameroon’s interest.

He says people are against Paul Biya and criticize him daily or attack his policies simply because he has been protecting the country’s riches from foreign predators. He says people are offering their unconditional support to Biya because he has pledged that as long as he lives and as long as he has the support of the Cameroonian people, he will protect all natural resources and riches for future generations.

Tchiroma spent 6 years in prison after he was arrested on 16 April 1984 for involvement in a coup attempt against Biya. When he regained freedom in 1990, he campaigned against Biya, but surprisingly Biya appointed him minister of transport in 1992 in what was viewed as a way of dividing and weakening the opposition.

Since then, the country’s opposition has remained fractured, with eight candidates running against Biya in the presidential poll.

Serge Espoire Matomba, candidate of the P.U.R.S. party, says even though campaigning has started, he still hopes, in talking with other contenders, the opposition will agree on a single candidate.

“I speak with Professor Maurice Kamto, I speak with Akere Muna, I speak with Osih Joshua, I speak with Cabral Libi. That means we are still working on it.”

Maurice Kamto of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement party says he will not agree to surrender his candidacy to someone else.

“Why should I abandon my candidacy and line up behind another one, no. I am a leader of a political party, I am not standing on my own.”

Twenty-eight candidates filed to compete in the presidential election. Cameroon’s elections management body ELECAM accepted nine, including Biya’s candidacy.

Party leaders have traded blame for their failure to unite.

The main opposition candidate Joshua Osih says he suspects some of the candidates are sponsored by Biya to keep the opposition fractured.

The 85-year-old Biya, who has led the central African country since 1982, is favored to win another seven-year term. That would take his rule 2025.

Culled from the VOA

Armed separatists in the Anglophone northwest and neigboring southwest regions have vowed they will not allow a “foreign election.”

Paul Biya, Cameroon’s president since 1982, is seeking re-election. Vying to oust the 85-year-old leader are eight candidates representing a string of opposition parties. The election campaigning starts nationwide on Saturday.

The incumbent himself is not expected to show up in the Anglophone regions, where only one candidate has ventured in the run-up to the vote and the escalating conflict has prompted an exodus of people – including voters.

Nearly 400 people have been reported killed since long-running tensions turned violent in October 2017 and separatists declared self-rule in the region they call Ambazonia.

At the Mile 17 Motor Park in Buea, region’s capital, the governor of the region, Bernard Okalia Bilai, is pleading with hundreds of commuters to go back to their homes. “There is fake news that the army will launch an attack. No, the army is not launching attacks. The army is there to protect the population and their property and the army is there to neutralize those attacks,” Bilai says.

Samuel Ikome Sako, was named interim president of the self-declared Ambazonian republic at the beginning of 2018

Thousands have left

“Those who are abandoning their homes, you can see here, the luggage, we have beds, furniture. No, where are they going? No, we want them to stay at home.”

Bilai has been visiting the park almost daily to try and stop the exodus of residents from the worst-affected regions.

Teacher John Nlom, who is leaving with his wife and five children, says he does not trust the governor’s assurances that their security is guaranteed.

“The governor himself, who is saying that people should stay back, that they are protected, is moving around with soldiers protecting him. Will the soldiers protect all the people? That is the reason I cannot stay. I have to leave,” Nlom says.

Over the past three weeks, thousands of residents have packed up and left, according to authorities. They don’t care much about voting in an election that won’t be free and fair, says Prince Ekosso, president of the United Socialist Democratic Party (USDP).

Credible elections “impossible”

“It is impossible for credible elections to take place in the northwest and the southwest. As a matter of fact, the towns and cities of the northwest and the southwest have been deserted,” Ekosso says.

“It’s already late now for anything to be done for free and fair elections to take place in the two regions.”

Presidential candidates across the country have been encouraging voters to cast their ballots on October 7. Prophet Frank Ndifor Afanui, a candidate for the opposition Cameroon National Citizenship Movement, is the only one to travel to the southwest region so far, with a visit to Mutengene.

In Cameroon’s capital Yaounde, opposition Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC) candidate Maurice Kamto suggests the separatists should allow people to vote as the only way to change the system they have been fighting.

“They will not win the war, so why continue fighting that war? Is it a solution for a country in crisis just to split into two parts just because we have may be a government which is not listening to them? Go and vote because it is the only solution. We do not have to sacrifice our people,” Kamto says.

The crisis in Cameroon’s anglophone regions has put President Biya on shaky ground

Ballots on the way

Social Democratic Front (SDF) candidate Joshua Osih says he sees a solution to the conflict.

“The problem is not the secession. The problem is the marginalization and injustices that lead to that secession. The secession will not necessarily solve that problem,” says Osih.

“When you have a president of the republic who understands these issues, the first thing that has to happen is to solve the problem of marginalization. I have absolutely no problem that as soon as I am elected, one of the first decisions I take is to recognize that it is a political problem.”

Cameroon’s election commission, ELECAM, has been meeting with political parties to find out what can be done for elections to take place peacefully in the sub-regions. Its board chair, Enow Abrams Egbe, says that although voters are leaving the areas, the commission will ensure an election is held for those who remain.

“In terms of security measures, after much discussion with our partners on the ground, we felt that it was necessary to regroup the polling stations into polling centers and a lot of considerations were taken,” Egbe says.

“There are two levels of distribution of material. The first material we call light electoral materials, I can say almost 100 percent are already on the ground. The heavy material concerning ballot papers and campaign materials are already on the way.”

The European Union routinely monitors elections in Africa

EU observers won’t be there

Many Cameroonians believe the election is merely a charade to rubberstamp the Biya’s stay in power. The government in Yaounde says more than 100 countries and institutions have applied to send election observers, but it is not known which have been accredited.

The European Union will not deploy observers to Cameroon for the election, as it has with all polls since the country adopted a multi-party system in 1990.

“Election observation has not been scheduled or prepared. But of course we are watching what happens,” says Hans-Peter Schadek, the head of the EU delegation in Cameroon. The 28-member bloc, Schadek says, is working with civil society in Cameroon – and in particular, a non-governmental initiative to promote more participation of women in politics.

Emile Bindzi, a spokesman for Universe party candidate Cabral Libii says the EU’s failure to send election observers “raises a lot of questions in Cameroonian society.” There are some who believe that the EU would like to leave Cameroonians to their sad fate.

Culled from Deutsch Welle

Footage of abuses published on Facebook, politicians tweeting their every move: for the first time, the West African state of Cameroon is heading into a presidential election in which social media is taking a central role.

Nine candidates are contesting the October 7 poll, including President Paul Biya, who has ruled the country for 35 years and is hoping to be re-elected for a sixth time.

But this time, the 85-year-old broke with media tradition by announcing his candidacy on Twitter.

One of Biya’s main challengers is Joshua Osih — head of the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) — who has taken to engaging with voters online.

When he came under fire for “unpresidential behaviour” after posting a picture of himself at the airport in Paris, he hit back immediately on Twitter, saying that was exactly the point.

“I want to break with protocol and everything to do with the myth around the presidency,” he wrote.

“I want to be close to the people I rule and not shut up in a palace.”

– ‘Much greater reach’ –

For candidates, going online offers far greater exposure than traditional forms of campaigning, explains Julie Owono, executive director of Internet Without Borders, an NGO.

“There is much greater potential in terms of reach than when their words are communicated through the written press or the radio,” she said.

For Owono, this increased presence online is the result of a significantly higher rate of internet connectivity in Cameroon.

Figures released earlier this month by the ministry of postal and telecomms services show connectivity jumped from a mere 0.24 percent of the population in 2011 to 35 percent last year.

“There has been a fall in the cost of internet access and network quality has also improved,” she said.

– ‘Disinformation’ –

Although the official launch of the election campaign is only due to start on Saturday, social media is already highlighting prominent topics, especially the security crisis in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions.

Blighted by armed conflict, the two regions have remained largely inaccessible to the media and NGOs but those involved in the fighting have used social media to expose purported human rights violations by the other side.

Since the conflict began at the end of 2017, footage of alleged abuses involving both anglophone separatists and Cameroonian soldiers have been doing the rounds almost every day on social media.

A military policeman with his head cut off, villages burnt by the army, and even scenes of torture: all these excesses caught on camera are used by both sides to try and discredit the enemy.

Faced with the surge of horrific footage spreading online, the government has called for calm, denouncing the “inappropriate use of the internet”.

Both the increase in hate speech and the proliferation of “fake news” are proving to be “a threat to our right to reliable information, above all in an election period,” said Communications Minister Tchiroma Bakary.

In July, the minister dismissed out of hand a video purportedly showing abuses by Cameroonian soldiers in the country’s Far North Region, where troops are deployed to root out Boko Haram jihadists from neighbouring Nigeria.

Several weeks later, an investigation was opened and several soldiers were arrested.

“The main challenge regarding the use of social networks is disinformation,” said Janvier Ngnoulaye, who heads an NGO called Internet Society Cameroon.

– Internet shutdown? –

With less than three weeks until the vote, Biya’s supporters — who see him as best placed to handle the separatist crisis and the threat posed by Boko Haram — maintain that footage of alleged abuses by the army was put online in order to sabotage his re-election bid.

“It’s all about harming Biya’s image,” a security source told AFP.

In fact, the campaign has sparked an online war of images: when one side posts pictures of roads in disrepair, the other responds with photos of huge construction projects, such as the motorway between Yaounde and Douala.

Earlier this month, a misleading rumour began circulating on social networks suggesting that Yaounde was going to shut down internet access during the vote, as happened in Mali in August.

“Fake news,” responded the communications minister.

But such fears are not entirely unfounded.

In early 2017, as the separatist protests multiplied in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions, Yaounde sought to stamp out the unrest by cutting off internet access in the two areas for over three months.

 AFP

Anglophone Crisis – Though Boko Haram’s lethality and tactical innovation, al-Shabaab’s resilience, and the brokering of partnerships by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have rightfully dominated analysis of political violence in Africa, other situations are also increasingly relevant for those concerned with political violence in Africa.

With the escalation of the crisis in Anglophone Cameroon and the October general elections presenting a risk of further increased tensions, the evolution of the country’s conflict and its implications for political violence across the continent is worth noting.

Much can be learned about conflict escalation from the Cameroonian government’s reaction to the calls of Anglophone activists, which has pushed the country towards violent conflict and has made the prospects for peaceful dialogue ever dimmer. The Cameroonian government, historically, has not effectively integrated and engaged its Anglophone population through inclusive governance practices. And since protests erupted nearly two years ago, the Biya administration has not seemed inclined to engage in peaceful dialogue to draw down the crisis. Taken together, these suggest that the scale of the conflict, and its lethality, are likely to escalate.

Origins of the Crisis

The origin of friction between Anglophone and Francophone populations in Cameroon can be traced back to the colonial era. Originally under German rule, Cameroon was partitioned between the French and British into two territories, both governed as trusts. Anglophone and Francophone Cameroonians were unified under a federal system in 1961 after a plebiscite was held in which voters were given a choice to join either Nigeria or Cameroon. It is worth mentioning that, among Anglophone Cameroonians, nearly 60 percent of Anglophones in the majority-Muslim northern region voted to join Nigeria, while roughly 70 percent of Anglophones in the majority-Christian southern region voted to join Cameroon.

In 1972, under President Ahmadou Ahidjo, the federal system was discarded in favor of a united, bilingual republic. To this day, however, Anglophone regions are governed by Common Law, whereas the rest of the country is governed by a civil code. Debates over the extent to which the country is dominated by Francophones, what sub-national authorities that the two Anglophone regions should be granted, and various cultural matters, have resulted in a proliferation of Anglophone activist groups and general politicking around the issue. Groups that may seem at face value to be apolitical—including teachers’ unions and legal associations—have taken up Anglophone issues as a part of political campaigns.

Anglophones currently make up roughly 20 percent of the country’s population and are undeniably under-represented in President Paul Biya’s government. Since taking power in 1982, less than 11 percent of the ministers appointed by Biya have been Anglophones. At present, just three of the 33 generals in the country and six of the 63-person cabinet members are Anglophones. Even within Anglophone districts, government jobs are often given to Francophone appointees.

Escalation of the Crisis

Though longstanding, the conflict between Anglophone and Francophone Cameroonians took a lethal turn in 2016 when widespread, peaceful protests and strikes emerged. Media reports focused on the role of Common Law lawyers advocating to abandon the Cameroonian Bar Association. Other groups, including the country’s teachers, then joined the protests. After weeks of strikes, gendarmes used tear gas against protesters. Shortly thereafter, four people were killed in clashes with security forces during a protest in Bamenda that arose after the Cameroon Teacher’s Trade Union called for a strike. Reports also emerged in late November of sexual violence against students at the University of Buea by Cameroonian security forces.

As the protests continued, the Biya government also began detaining and arresting Anglophone activists and journalists and shutting down newspapers and radio stations. Beginning in January 2017 the government cut or greatly slowed down internet services in Anglophone regions. The internet shutdown ended up being one of the longest recorded in sub-Saharan Africa, lasting just under 100 days. The shutdown was economically harmful—given the region’s reputation as “Silicon Mountain”—and also hamstrung efforts to keep track of events in the region.

At the same time, the government also engaged in some conciliatory measures. A National Commission on the Promotion of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism was established and was accompanied in short order by the “appointing [of] Anglophone magistrates and bilingual teachers, and [the] releasing from prison some Anglophone civil society leaders and activists.” According to Amnesty International, however, “these moves were viewed by the Anglophone movements as being too limited,” and the protests continued.

The groups that have emerged to advance Anglophone rights have advocated different means and different ends. The vast majority of Anglophone activists advocate for peaceful resolution of the conflict, but as government repression has intensified, groups who advocate secession, or worse, violence, have become more significant. Some groups advocate for more federalism, while others call for secession and the establishment of an independent state called “Ambazonia.” A number of armed separatist groups also formed an umbrella organization, the Ambazonia Recognition Collaboration Council (ARCC), claiming to have thousands of fighters.

Through the spring and summer of 2017, however, Anglophone protesters steadily escalated their tactics. Over this period, at least 42 schools and a number of market stalls in Anglophone Cameroon were burned down. A recent report catalogued a number of instances in which Anglophone separatists targeted civilians who did not engage in the demonstrations. The Biya government imposed curfews and increased the security sector’s presence in the region in response. Despite this, Anglophone separatists declared independence on October 1, 2017; in clashes with the state security forces that day, reports indicated that at least a dozen people were killed and 40 arrested.

By November 2017, separatists were making attacks on the government more frequently and brazenly. In the Northwest province, for example, they began targeting police with homemade explosive devices. The Biya government stepped up its repression and arrests, labeled the separatists “terrorists” by comparing them to Boko Haram, and declared war on them.

Actions taken by armed separatist groups and the government continued to worsen. Separatists are suspected to have kidnapped nine employees of a construction firm and in response to the arrest and repatriation of Anglophone activists that fled to Nigeria, an armed separatist group called the Ambazonian Defence Force (ADF) began abducting government officials. Soon thereafter, a Tunisian national living in Cameroon was abducted and killed, after which the government organized a rescue mission to release 18 hostages, including 12 Europeans. Just this May, a radio journalist and Anglophone activist, Mancho Bibixy, was sentenced to 15 years in prison under the country’s anti-terrorism law in a military court. Four journalists had previously been held under the act until President Biya issued a presidential decree for their release. Bibixy’s conviction has prompted speculation about what sentences could be handed down to the other detained activists and journalists.

Throughout this escalation, more than 20,000 people have fled the country for neighboring Nigeria and an estimated 150,000 have been internally displaced. The escalation has transformed a generally peaceful, albeit contentious, debate over the extent and nature of federalism in modern Cameroon into a violent, potentially-existential crisis over the future of the Cameroonian state.

What Lies Ahead?

Though a number of the characteristics of this conflict are specific to Cameroon, the events of the past few years highlight the importance of inclusive governance measures and the ramifications of heavy-handed security responses to political dissidents. In particular, the Cameroonian experience points to the need to engage moderate political dissidents early and earnestly. In waiting months before attempting to work with the Anglophone community and doing so after violence began to escalate, the Biya administration allowed hardliners and separatists within the movement to mobilize effectively and gain influence. Had the government engaged the initial protests, led by lawyers and teachers, the escalation of the crisis may have been averted.

In October, Cameroon will hold elections, which could result in increased tensions. Anglophone territories have previously thrown their support behind the Social Democratic Front (SDF), which currently controls 18 of the 180 seats in parliament. If any perception of illegitimacy in the electoral process takes hold, the current level of violence could take an even deadlier turn. Avoiding an escalation of this kind, and ultimately changing the tone of the current situation, requires dialogue between prominent moderate, non-violent Anglophone activists and the government.

www.searchzima.com

Joseph Kabila’s preferred successor as president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will face a credible election challenge in December from two opposition leaders, the final list of candidates published Wednesday
showed.

Kabila has ruled since his father’s assassination in 2001. He agreed last month not to defy term limits and stand for re-election, opening the door to the Central African nation’s first democratic transfer of power.

His announcement calmed tensions that have seen dozens of anti-Kabila demonstrators killed by security forces since he refused to step down when his constitutional mandate expired in December 2016.

Kabila is backing Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary in the long-delayed Dec. 23 election. His biggest challengers are likely to be Felix Tshisekedi, the president of Congo’s largest opposition party, and Vital Kamerhe, who placed third in the last election in 2011.

But in all, 21 candidates have been approved for the single-round contest, including several other prominent Kabila critics, which risks diluting the opposition vote and boosting Ramazani’s chances.

Fairness questions

The authorities’ exclusion from the race of other leading opposition figures, including former Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba and ex-provincial Governor Moise Katumbi, has also raised questions about the election’s fairness.

The opposition accuses Kabila’s camp of plotting to rig the elections with untested electronic voting machines, a charge the ruling coalition rejects.

In a rare opinion poll in July, Katumbi and Tshisekedi each received 19 percent support. Bemba received 17 percent and Kamerhe got 9 percent.

Ramazani did not receive enough votes to figure in the results but is expected to now benefit from the ruling coalition’s financial and institutional muscle.

Opposition leaders have repeatedly said they intend to coalesce behind a single candidate but have traditionally struggled to present a united front. In 2011, Kabila won with 49 percent of ballots cast as the opposition vote split.

The final candidate list also includes former Prime Minister Samy Badibanga and longtime Kabila ally Tryphon Kin-Kiey.

Bemba was disqualified by the constitutional court earlier this month over a witness-tampering conviction, while Katumbi was prevented from re-entering the country last month to register his candidacy after two years in exile.

The electoral commission also validated more than 15,000 candidacies for parliamentary elections due to take place the same day.

Reuters