18, May 2020
Covid-19 Pandemic and the Nigerian Failing State 0
Covid-19 pandemic responses have suddenly become the major security challenge in all states. Sudden overwhelming need for medical infrastructures for unpredictable large number of patients in life threatening situations, have shown the weakness of most states’ medical emergency architecture. With leading states like United States, France and England buckling down under the stress of this pandemic, nations with failing security structures are expected to experience devastating consequences without outside help.
Nigerian state security environment in the pre-Covid-19 era was predominantly unstable. Three states –Borno, Adamawa and Yobe are reportedly under occupation by ISWAP and Boko Haram Islamic groups Rebels. Reports from Northwest and North central regions is littered with looting, raping and killing by bandits, the whole south is under threats of political uprising and constant murderous attacks from Fulani Herdsmen.
Nigerian security forces are reportedly overwhelmed, with Nigerian Army in security operations in over 34 of the 36 states in the country. Policing capabilities in Nigeria are mostly elite security based. Catering to the needs of the political class and the less than 5 percent elites. Most locals rely solely on relatively unarmed Private Security Personnels (PSPs) for securing their homes and offices. High occurrence of resort to self-help by locals, leading to extra-judicial mob killing and burning of crime suspects paints the picture of public perception of state judicial processes.
Political tensions fuelled by publicly acclaimed ethnocentric and nepotistic leadership have led to high level of ethnic division in a state with over 300 nations. Regional groups like the Northern, Arewa; Southwest, Oduduwa; Southsouth, MEND and SouthEast, MOSSOP; are in full fledge militant agitations for national independence.
State’s revenue from crude oil and agriculture plunged by over 40 percent in the period between 2014 and 2019. Recent huge depreciation in global oil prices from above $40pb in December 2019 to less than $30pb in March 2020, has equally depleted national resources. Cutting short national revenue to about less than 50% of budget revenue target in 2020.
Given huge loss of resources, growing casualties from growing Civid19 pandemic coupled with weakening government control of security in some part of the country, national response to Covid19 pandemic is erratic, at best uncoordinated. Lockdown as covid19 control measure have failed in most cities in the state. Government in avoidance of citizen revolts as crime and violent acts, needing federal government intervention spiraled out in major cities, relaxed lockdown and allowed the public to return to work last week.
Expert positioned that economic loss after 8 weeks of continuous lockdown in Nigerian major cities run into millions of Dollars daily. The loss to the Small and Medium Enterprises in market shares might not be regained without the injection of viable stimulus package. The approval of a 500billion Naira economic stimulus package for SMEs by the National Assembly, was hailed by most observers, yet some few voices still warned that it might be too little late. Addressing the short-run problem in the sector might need four times that figure and that was based on the premises of equity and justice in sharing processes.
Given Covid19 infection rates continuous unchecked growth in Nigeria despite low testing rate -over 300% weekly increases were recorded by NCDC since the third week of April- despite full lockdown in major cities till 4th May, 2020 when lockdown was relaxed-and experts warns of lockdown removal leading to higher infection in the state, increased pressure on the health infrastructure in the country might lead to breakdown in law and order. Pockets of protests and disorderly behaviour have been reported in some northern cities like Gombe and Kano where public education on the pandemic remain low.
Security analyst positioned that due to government concerted response to this pandemic, security of lives and property has been neglected and most state’s resources diverted to this source. Government forces offensive against the Boko Haram and ISWAP has faded out of public discus as almost 90% of local news are currently dedicated to the Covid Response Situation Reports.
Increased criminal activities during lockdown in Lagos and other big cities reveals the need for more security resources in Nigerian homeland, but overstretched state’s resources obviously cannot financed such expansions. Attempts by some states government to increase security capacity through recruitment of locals as vigilantes and security corps was set aside as the new challenges of pandemic became the new security challenge.
Nigeria is home to over 200 million people with over 85million in abject poverty according to UN’s 2019 statistics. WHO in its assessment of Nigerian health capacities, declared Nigeria a high-risk environment for Covid19 Pandemic infection since March 2020. Given the overview of the reported situation in the state, it can be posited that the 4000 infection rate as at 5th of May, 2020 is a tip of the iceberg. Facts point at impending breakdown of law and order due to public panic when the big numbers hit Nigerian Covid score sheet.
There is urgent need for direct international intervention in Nigerian health infrastructure development to meet the expected sharp rise in pandemic victims. The state resources though given a lifeline of over $3million by the IMF last week need more resources to manage all sectors of the economy and offset lost oil revenue as a matter of urgency. The government need to refocus on its war with the terrorists and bandits making life uneasy for its citizens hence regional ethnic armies may develop in already impatient regions to secure their people. The economic loses of businesses during these lockdowns will surely lead to loss of businesses and jobs -in a country with over 35% youth unemployment figure- this is a perfect recipe for violent riots and increased criminal activities. International NGOs have a duty of care to respond to the impending implosion of the Nigerian State and be on the ground before the largest humanitarian situation occurs.
The time for concerted actions is now. Let all come together and support the tottering giant of Africa, before it falls and splash to smithereens the surrounding states and bring African economy to its knees.
Don Michael Olalekan Adeniji, MA, C.Med., DRS, fpnm
Director, Security Policy Analysis
African Initiatives for Peace and Human Security, (AIPHD), Ibadan
Contributing Editor Cameroon Concord News Group
21, May 2020
Ambazonia: Vice President Yerima speaks of the coronavirus, Barrister Shufai’s health and the killing of the Mamfe mayor 0
The exiled leader of the people of Southern Cameroons Vice President Dabney Yerima has told the Voice newspaper in Yaounde that the government of La Republique du Cameroun will bear full responsibility for any negative aftermath if coronavirus claims the life of any Ambazonian in their detention facilities. Below is the full conversation the Ambazonian Vice President had with the Voice
The Voice: The coronavirus pandemic is devastating communities in the Southern Cameroons, why have you as the Vice President of Ambazonia, not called for a ceasefire so the people can get the aid and resources they need from the government?
Vice President DabneyYerima The global ceasefire that was called by the United Nations in March after the coronavirus became a global pandemic was a great opportunity for the government of La Republique du Cameroun to show responsibility and a respect for international norms but it failed. While the Interim Government heeded to that call and was making preparations, La Republique du Cameroun government sent more troops to our communities like they did in Bafut recently to murder our people indiscriminately. They have used this period of a global pandemic to unleash more terror on a defenceless people.
The Voice: What are you doing as the Vice President to help the people in Southern Cameroons during this pandemic?
Vice President Dabney Yerima: Educating the population on the dos and don’ts concerning this global killer is of paramount importance so we communicated short videos and audios to our people. We supplied over 150,000 masks and over 100,000 sanitisers. We sent packages to the refugees in Nigeria and Ghana too. But more has to be done and we are leaving no stones unturn in our fight against this global killer.
The Voice: Are you satisfied with the measures that the government has taken to curb the spread of Covid-19?
Vice President Dabney Yerima: It is unbelievable that the government of La Republique du Cameroun doesn’t quite appreciate the gravity and deadliness of this pandemic. Ambazonia intelligence officers have informed me that La Republique du Cameroun airports and borders remain sealed as I speak except for a few chattered flights but the bars and off-licences are open.
The Voice: Barrister Blaise Shufai was rushed to the military hospital in Yaoundé on Saturday the 16th of May. What are your thoughts?
Vice President DabneyYerima: It is a disturbing situation because the man of law has been ill for some weeks now. My attention was drawn to a covert infection in the principal detention facility in Yaoundé which is spreading disturbingly. We are alarmed that many of our prisoners of conscience have been down with this mysterious infection. Our major concern is that despite the global pandemic, the government of La Republique du Cameroun and the prison officials have refused to carry out any COVID-19 tests in the detention facility. This is unacceptable and a continuous violation of the human rights of our political detainees and the government of La Republique du Cameroun will bear full responsibility for any negative aftermath if this virus claims the life of any Ambazonians in their detention facilities. Ambazonian intelligence sources have informed me that Barrister Shufai’s condition is stable but the regime of La Republique du Cameroun has to make public vital information on the bill of health of the Ambazonian leader.
The Voice: Last Sunday the 10th of May, the mayor of Mamfe was assassinated by Ambazonian gunmen. On Saturday, the people of Mamfe protested against terror. What is your take on that?
Vice President DabneyYerima: The Interim Government of Ambazonia is on record that it banned elections in Southern Cameroons organised by the regime in Yaoundé. So, the people of Southern Cameroons do not recognise the said individual as the legitimate mayor of Mamfe, the chief town in the Manyu County. However, the Ambazonia interim government is aware that the La Republique du Cameroun imposed mayor was assassinated by heavily armed gunmen loyal to some barons of the ruling CPDM regime in Yaoundé.
The Voice: Many fighters are heeding the government’s call to drop arms, is a continuation of your cause now not futile?
Vice President DabneyYerima: Our cause has never been linked to arms. We took up arms as a policy of self-defence after La Republique du Cameroun declared war against our people. For your information, Ambazonia restoration forces are not dropping down their weapons. We understand that the government of La Republique du Cameroun has its Militias that pose as our self-defence forces that have dropped arms. Our Genuine fighters are resolute in ensuring independence or resistance forever.
The Voice: How confident are you that your cause will be successful?
Vice President DabneyYerima One of the things I’ll underscore for your readers is that when the US was fighting for independence against the mighty British; the first country to recognise them was the Kingdom of the Morocco. At the time Morocco was considered an obscured nation in international politics.Correspondingly, the people of Ambazonia will keep fighting until our own Morocco recognises us. Also, the experiences of South Africa, East Timor, South Sudan, Namibia and Eretria are practical examples that Ambazonia’s determination and resilience to restore its independence and total freedom will never be an exception. History is on our side and we have all what it takes to make our journey back to Buea a reality.
The Voice: Thanks for talking to us.
Vice President DabneyYerima, Thanks for having me.