9, February 2020
February Twin Poll: Party that has ruled since 1985 expected to firm grip on La Republique du Cameroun 0
Separatist militias have stepped up attacks and abductions in Cameroon’s two English-speaking regions ahead of parliamentary and council elections likely to hand a sweeping victory to the party that has ruled the central African nation since 1985.
Anglophone armed groups last month called for a lock-down of the Southwest and Northwest regions and militants have targeted electoral staff and abducted at least 40 candidates running for parliamentary and municipal posts in polls on Sunday. Opposition leader Maurice Kamto, who was jailed for eight months last year, has withdrawn his party from the vote, saying it won’t be credible.
As many as 3,000 civilians are estimated to have died and hundreds of thousands have been forced to flee their homes since the Anglophone revolt erupted late 2016 following a heavy-handed government crackdown on protests against the dominance of the French language in schools and courts. Cameroon is divided in 10 semi-autonomous regions and the English-speaking minority accounts for about a fifth of the population.
The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement already holds 148 out of 180 seats in the National Assembly and is running unchallenged in about 20% of all races, according to the International Crisis Group. Sunday’s vote will almost certainly strengthen the grip of President Paul Biya over state institutions, ICG Central Africa Director Richard Moncrieff said by phone from Nairobi.
Special Status
Africa’s second-longest serving head of state, Biya, who turns 87 next week, has been accused of allowing the crisis to spiral out of control by ignoring it in its early stages. Last year, he initiated a national dialogue that led to a bill granting the Anglophone regions special status, which means their assemblies are to be consulted by the central government over educational policy as well as the application of common law.
Yet most separatist leaders were either in prison or abroad when the dialogue started in September, fueling widespread skepticism about its purpose.
“For the special status given to the Anglophones to come into force, elections must take place,” said Fuh Calistus Gentry, a ruling-party member.
The decision to grant greater autonomy to the Anglophone regions won’t have much of an impact if the population is too scared to vote, said Kah Walla, head of the opposition Cameroon People’s Party.
“Those to be elected in parliament and in the councils will have very little powers in the Northwest and Southwest regions because they will have very little legitimacy,” Kalla said.
Oil-dependent Cameroon is a key hub in central Africa, with roads and ports that are vital for landlocked neighbors including Chad and Central African Republic. The revolt has also slashed output of palm oil and other agricultural export crops, which are mainly grown in the Southwest and Northwest.
The government has postponed the vote twice since September 2018, citing logistical and security concerns. Voter turnout during 2018 presidential elections was as low as 5% in the Northwest region, compared to 53% in the rest of the country. To provide better security, the government this month deployed additional troops in the restive regions and grouped voting centers together.
Biya’s decision to push ahead with the elections appears to be motivated by a desire to “present some form of normality” as the U.S. and the African Union have increased pressure on his government to solve the crisis, Moncrieff said.
“Instead, the vote risks reinforcing the separatists’ argument that they’re being marginalized,” he said.
The U.S. cut $17 million in military aid to Cameroon last year and said in December it planned to terminate the government’s eligibility for trade preference benefits due to reports of “persistent human-rights violations” by security forces. About 300 U.S. troops are stationed in the country to monitor Islamist militant insurgencies in the region.
Source: Bloomberg























9, February 2020
Ireland: Sinn Fein’s surge in general election leaves three parties tied 0
Support for left-wing Irish nationalists Sinn Fein surged in an election on Saturday, leaving it tied with the party of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar but unlikely to emerge with the highest number of seats, an exit poll showed.
Instead Varadkar’s Fine Gael is likely to compete with fellow centre-right rival Fianna Fail to secure the most seats and the right to try to form a coalition government – a task analysts called extremely difficult.
The Ipsos MRBI exit poll showed Fine Gael on 22.4%, Sinn Fein on 22.3% and pre-election favourites Fianna Fail on 22.2%.
Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), is likely to fall behind the other two parties because it fielded far fewer candidates.
Still, its breakthrough represents a major realignment of Irish politics, which for a century has been dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
“It’s a very, very good result for Sinn Fein… but even though it is a statistical tie, we would expect Fine Gael and Fianna Fail to fight it out to get the most seats,” said Gary Murphy, Professor of Politics at Dublin City University.
Fianna Fail has ruled out going into coalition for the first time with Fine Gael and both parties say they will not govern with Sinn Fein, meaning there is no obvious government to be formed, he added.
“There are very rocky times ahead,” he said.
‘Historical election’
Counting begins at 0900 GMT on Sunday with some results expected from early afternoon. The final and potentially decisive seats in Ireland’s 160-member parliament may not be filled until Monday or even later.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have said they will look to smaller parties to form what would likely be another minority government requiring support of one of the two main parties from the opposition benches.
The parties have swapped power at every election since emerging from the opposing sides of Ireland’s 1920s civil war. They have similar policies on the economy and Brexit trade talks.
Sinn Fein has moved on from the long leadership of Gerry Adams, seen by many as the face of a bloody IRA war against British rule in Northern Ireland. Its candidates were the biggest gainers by vote share, up from 14% at the last election in 2016.
With Fine Gael and Fianna Fail marginally down, the outcome demonstrated some appetite for change.
“The days of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail dominating Irish politics are over,” Fine Gael parliamentary party chairman Martin Heydon told national broadcaster RTE.
“Our elections are becoming more volatile. More like a lot of other European countries. The ability to form governments is going to be hard after this.”
A new generation of politicians led by Mary Lou McDonald spearheaded the groundswell of support for Sinn Fein, particularly among younger voters on the defining election issue of the cost and availability of housing.
Her deputy leader in the Irish parliament, Pearse Doherty, said the exit poll represented a vote of “a historic nature” for the party.
“You can see in the figures there today that there is a mood for change,” he told RTE.
Source: REUTERS