The Taliban has a saying: “you have the watch; we have the time. We were born here. We will die here. We are not going anywhere.” As the Taliban has demonstrated, if a fighting force, weak on paper, is willing and able to wait its enemy out, it can defeat a much superior force. If the guerrilla can withstand suffering and live to fight another day, many battles can be lost while still achieving ultimate victory.  The Vietnam conflict was no different, and the Taliban outlasted the might of US and Western forces for 20 years.

In Afghanistan, the West fought an enemy that will not die. America fought a nemesis that had nowhere else to go. In the Southern Cameroons, French Cameroun army soldiers are also fighting an enemy they cannot see and won’t go away. What are the similarities in both wars? Corruption and Determination! Corruption within the Afghan government and French Cameroun establishment, and Determination from the Taliban and Ambazonia Self-defence forces.

Corruption

The Taliban’s lightning advance was based on dysfunction in the government and armed forces. The same can be said of the successes of Ambazonia self-defence forces in their pursuit of independence. Corruption at the top of the Cameroon government military is doing as much damage to its adventure in Southern Cameroons. A former Afghan diplomat recently said, “From your birth certificate to your death certificate and whatever comes in between, somehow you have to bribe.” Anyone with some knowledge of Cameroon under Biya would think the diplomat was talking about the CPDM crime syndicate.

As the Taliban seized territory after territory, government soldiers dropped their uniforms, firearms and ran. On paper, the Afghan army had hundreds of thousands of US-trained fighters. But the fact is that soldiers in Afghanistan went unpaid as senior military and government officials simply siphoned military finances. Afghanistan fell easily than many expected to the Taliban because corruption was endemic in the government and military. The disease of corruption is so badly embedded in the Francophone dominated political and military establishments and this evil is a blessing to the Southern Cameroons quest for independence.

Just as the Taliban exploited the weaknesses in the Afghan army, Ambazonian self-defence forces have exploited a fragile, fraudulent, and hopeless army that has no belly for the fight. The parading of captured weapons by the Taliban on international media is evocative of the videos on social media posted by Ambazonian self-defence forces.

Procurement fraud was rife in the Afghan government, and the same crime is at a more sophisticated stage in Yaoundé. By the time of the Taliban’s final onslaught, Aghan state officials were so corrupt that most of them cut deals with the Taliban. The Afghan army was in a miserable shape to fight as its numbers were inflated by ghost soldiers. The presence of ghost soldiers deep within the Cameroon government military is very well established as the senior commanders pocket the salaries of these ghost army soldiers. The similarities between Afghanistan and Cameroon are striking, and the results, however long it takes, will be parallel.

Determination:

After the Taliban was toppled in 2001, it maintained a strong presence in parts of Afghanistan and played the long game of prolonged combat. When the Southern Cameroons leadership was abducted in Abuja, Nigeria, in January 2018, it appeared as if the Southern Cameroons liberation struggle was a pipedream that would never be realized, but the Southern Cameroons Diaspora community and self-defence forces have reorganised themselves and are deadlier now than before.

For twenty years, the Taliban maintained its structure and survived the deaths of senior leadership figures. It maintained a base in Pakistan and at home in many provinces. They also received considerable moral and financial support from states in the Middle East. Similarly, despite the leadership of the Southern Cameroons movement being incarcerated in Yaoundé, the Interim Government of Ambazonia has continued to function satisfactorily in exile.

The Taliban did not accept the legitimacy of the US-supported government, and the people of Southern Cameroons do not accept the legitimacy of French Cameroon’s rule over the territory of Southern Cameroons. Since Mr Biya and his regime have ruled out genuine negotiation with the Southern Cameroons leadership in their detention centres, the jungles of Southern Cameroons will be their unending nightmare over the next decades as the mountains, hills and valleys of Afghanistan was to the Americans. 

Just as many US right-wing policymakers believed for twenty years that the US would win militarily in Afghanistan, the hawks in Yaoundé are defiantly lying to themselves and anyone who would listen that they will emerge from the jungles of Southern Cameroons victorious and politically stronger. France will soon realise the folly of sustaining a corrupt army in a war that they will not win. Whether the political elite in Yaoundé accepts it or not, the Southern Cameroons struggle would still linger long after Mr Biya exits the scene, and the solution like the one in Afghanistan is not on the battlefield.

Paul Biya will not be the only Francophone Cameroonian president to fight the war in Ambazonia. Like Afghanistan, there is an exit strategy. The Americans talked to the Taliban and exited. Are the French Cameroun elite humble enough to do the sensible thing?

The speed and success of the Taliban shocked both Afghans and the US that had backed the Afghan government with money and military support. The US spent over $88bn on training and equipping Afghan security forces over the years. Conservative estimates say France has spent over $11 billion in equipping the Francophone dominated Cameroon army over the last four years, and the figure is growing as the enemy in the jungles in Southern Cameroons is just not going away.

La Republique du Cameroun has not a fighting chance against a liberating force that has time and nowhere to go. If the success of the Taliban is anything to go by, Southern Cameroonians are unlikely to let this great opportunity to attain freedom pass them by. Having a watch and money doesn’t guarantee that one has time. La Republique du Cameroun and France have the watch and money; Southern Cameroonians must know that, like the Taliban, they have the time.

IsongAsu

London Bureau Chief

Cameroon Concord News Group

The Anglophone regions’ relatively quiet start to 2021 was shattered in March by an intense series of IED attacks. Marking a new development in the Cameroonian conflict that has simmered for four years, at least one harrowing new video emerged every day. Each showcased the same pattern: the lumbering roll of a military convoy down a muddy forested road; the explosion underneath a lightly armoured Toyota; the immediate covering fire laid down in anticipation of an ambush; and, eventually, a silence punctuated by the cries of the wounded.

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been used by separatists in the Anglophone conflict since at least late-2018, but the tactic has now reached maturity. Extensive video evidence reveals increasingly sophisticated use of the explosives, including the deliberate targeting of the army’s least protected vehicles, remote detonations, and the use of multiple IEDs. These attacks have been more frequent, more deadly and, most importantly, have not stopped.

This is potentially devastating for the military. Cameroon has only a limited number of mine-protected armoured vehicles and so soldiers are largely left to patrol in Toyota pickup trucks with improvised armour that is entirely ineffective against IEDs. Western forces learned similarly painful lessons in Afghanistan and Iraq, with ‘Snatch’ Land Rovers referred to as “mobile coffins” by troops.

These attacks must weigh heavily on the morale of Cameroonian forces, and recent reports suggest that some units have resorted to extreme measures to counteract the threat. It has been alleged that the elite Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR) has forced civilians to act as human minesweepers near Kumbo, Northwest region, in what would clearly be an egregious abuse of human rights.

The military is known to have defused dozens of IEDs, but the threat remains. It is therefore likely the government will look to acquire new armoured vehicles this year, with Cameroon’s contingent in the UN mission in the Central African Republic receiving several Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles in May.

Separatists growing stronger

This increase in IED attacks fits into a broader pattern of some separatist groups’ growing combat strength. Larger forces such as the Ambazonian Defence Forces (ADF) and Ambazonia Restoration Forces (ARF) have managed to replace their locally produced hunting rifles with more effective firepower. Over time, they have acquired weaponry from multiple sources such as corrupt or sympathetic local officials and military personnel, dealers and allied groups in neighbouring Nigeria, following attacks and ambushes, and even from the diaspora in the US. Most recently, secessionists have acquired several light machine guns and, for the first time, rocket-propelled grenade launchers (RPGs).

This has marked a step-change in rebels’ offensive capability and has led to deadlier attacks. In early-May, it was reported that 24 soldiers and civilians had been killed by IEDs in the previous two weeks. In late-June, ten soldiers were killed and a gendarmerie post was attacked in South West region in one day. Two recent raids by ‘General No Pity’, a feared commander of the Bambalang Marine Forces, at Galim in the West region and Bamali in the North-West left several soldiers dead. In July, grisly footage showing members of a separatist group celebrating around beheaded military personnel was released. And an attack in Bali on 19 July left five senior policemen dead.

Since March, it seems that around 60 to 80 service personnel have been killed, with many more wounded. This would likely make it the deadliest period for government soldiers since the crisis began. Separatist attacks have been particularly effective in the North West region, where large armed factions are believed, at times, to be working with some degree of cooperation, though not quite in harmony. In the South-West, by contrast, fighting between separatist factions remains common. In late-June, for instance, the Fako Mountain Lions killed ‘General Opopo’, a commander of the rival SOCADEF group. Disunity and distrust among secessionists in most areas, which is exacerbated through online attacks among separatist leaders in the diaspora, remains a yoke around the neck of the campaign for Ambazonian independence.

Biya’s legacy

The government’s line that the Anglophone crisis is an internal matter that is under control or has even been resolved is miles away from the current reality. There have been widespread losses of personnel and equipment recently, and the military even briefly deployed the Armoured Reconnaissance Battalion (BBR) to the region. This move neither projects strength nor suggests a military nearing victory.

That said, the separatists’ recent successes are unlikely to alter the long-term trajectory of the conflict. The kind of turnaround witnessed in Ethiopia’s Tigray region or Afghanistan is not going to be repeated; Cameroon’s separatist groups are not on the verge of capturing Bamenda or Buea. Instead, the conflict risks leaving the Anglophone regions frozen in time for a generation amid a desperate quagmire in which neither side can prevail, and as the international community looks on. Meanwhile, the military continues to recruit heavily, limiting the strategic impact of the increasing losses. As the conflict becomes ever more entrenched and intractable, resolution becomes harder to imagine. The North-West and South -West regions risk becoming to Cameroon what Kivu is to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

A common phrase heard about the Cameroonian government is that it feels “time is on its side”. From the perspective of the insular, highly centralised regime, this may seem logical. Yet to other actors, it reads as a potentially fatal miscalculation. Time is not on the side of the 1.1 million children out of school or the 3 million residents of the Anglophone regions caught in the crossfire. Nor is it on the side of the 88-year-old President Paul Biya, whose 38 years in charge make him the longest-ruling non-royal leader in the world. His rule is likely to come to an end in the next election cycle, and a transition of power for such a long-standing regime is fraught with the highest risks imaginable.

Cameroon already faces immense challenges with the fight against Boko Haram in the Far North, a tense security situation on the Central African border and thousands of associated refugees, and the immense humanitarian pressures created by all of these separate crises. The strain on the Cameroonian state is enormous, and without a change in strategy, Biya’s forthcoming transition will rightly set alarm bells ringing across the world.

After nearly four decades in power, the greatest legacy the president could leave behind would be to bring the full weight of the state to the table in pursuit of a negotiated, sustainable end to the Anglophone crisis. The alternative is more smouldering armoured vehicles, soaring humanitarian need, and an increasing flow of coffins draped in the Cameroonian flag. As always, the power is with President Biya and his government, yet it is those in Anglophone Cameroon that are paying the heaviest price.

Culled from African Arguments.org

Cameroon’s controversial Territorial Administration Minister, Paul Atanga Nji, is these days walking on egg shells ever since he visited the Special Criminal Tribunal in Yaoundé.

The Territorial Administration Ministry boss, who is currently in Abuja to attend a security meeting, seems to have lost his voice after a tense meeting with members of the Special Criminal Tribunal who are analyzing his case in order to come up with a conclusion which is expected in the president’s office.

Atanga Nji, the conman who said there was no Anglophone problem, was questioned on his role in the mismanagement of COVID funds given to the country by the International Monetary Fund.

It is being alleged that he meddled with the distribution of the funds and even the services and goods that were supposed to be provided by his ministry were never provided. 

The conman has been under scrutiny ever since he granted a contract to his brother who lives in Florida, USA, for him to declare that Biya was supported by Americans in his bid to win another term in 2018.

He is also being suspected of misusing other funds, especially those related to the war in the English-speaking regions of the country.

Noted for his bad English and legendary stupidity, the conman is gradually being elbowed out of government as he cannot fulfill his promise.

He had conned his Beti masters into believing that he would put an end to the Southern Cameroons crisis, but since becoming the territorial administration boss, the situation has only gotten worse.

The Cameroon Concord News Group’s correspondent in Nigeria who spotted the conman on the conference grounds in Nigeria said he looked tired, old and even haggard; a sign that he was going through some psychological torture.

It should be mentioned that the territorial administration boss left the country without the usual fanfare because of the suspicion hanging over him like the Sword of Damocles.

It is being rumored in power circles in Yaoundé that he could be arrested at anytime and this could also happen upon his landing in Yaoundé in a few days time.

“He understands how the system works and he is really scared. He could even be arrested at the airport. He has been involved in many nasty deals and the suspicion hanging over him is robbing him of his peace,” a source in Yaoundé said.

Paul Atanga Nji has brought shame to the government and defeat to the military which has lost more than 3,000 of its soldiers in a war that could have been avoided through negotiations and peace deals.

It is becoming clearer that he will not be part of the next government which will be announced before the country’s president, Paul Biya, returns to Switzerland to continue with his long and costly treatment for multiple illnesses.

Atanga Nji is aware of the bad news and this is keeping him awake all night. Many Cameroonians hold that he lacks the stuff that makes ministers and many wish that he could be cut out of the government just to spare the country the numerous embarrassments he has been putting the country through.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

Secession related crises are fast becoming omnipresent in Africa and have led to the fragmentation and division of many nations. The unrest usually comes with devastating impacts largely responsible for the continent’s current economic and social retardation. From Nigeria’s Biafra to Cameroon’s Ambazonian, and Ethiopia’s Tigray, the daily heightened tensions show that many African countries are in an unholy union of strange bedfellows due to the forceful marriage of regions with different political and religious ideologies during the colonial era.

The forceful imposition by foreign governments denied the indigenous tribes the chance to decide their co-existence. Years after gaining independence, many of these countries have divided – in most cases – amidst distrust and bloodshed. From the Ethiopia-Eritrea crisis to the Sudan-South Sudan conflict, the self-determination movement across the continent is usually associated with war.

At the same time, there are countries that are yet undivided but highly polarized along ethnic and religious lines. Nigeria, for instance, has grappled with this since amalgamation in the early 1910s.  Despite the obvious disunity, successive governments, both democratic and military, have insisted on the non-negotiability of the country, and every dissenting voice has been crushed with wanton brutality.

In 1967-1970, the Ojukwu led Biafra Army was fought tooth and nail by the Nigerian Army in a civil war that claimed between 500,000 to 2 million lives. Thousands of Eritrean soldiers and civilians also paid the ultimate price for the country’s independence from Ethiopia. Cases like these abound across the continent. But just when the leaders are expected to have learnt their lessons, they seem to be adamant in their approach. In instances where the dialogue should be explored, African leaders seem to favour militarization and brutality.

Despite that, new conflicts are emerging and old ones resurfacing. The Biafra agitation for instance has yet again been brought to the forefront in the past six years. Similarly, the anglophone part of Cameroon, popularly known as Ambazonia, remains resilient in its demand for an independent nation. Much like Nigeria, President Paul Biya’s government has been treating the issue with a forceful approach. In both cases, many civilians, including children and women, have been killed and economic activities ground to a halt at different times.

The Biafra case and other similar crises suggest secession agitation is more an ideological struggle. Suppressing the movement seems to always amount to bottling the bomb as they usually explode again sooner or later.

Many political scientists have attempted to dissect the root causes of the unrest in the content. Since most African countries were products of forced amalgamation, the indigenous people had little or no say over their nationhood. The heterogeneous nature of most of these countries is largely responsible for the recurring rancour and in many cases.

In Ethiopia, the Tigray region has been at the loggerheads with the central government, leading to around 10,000 deaths and over 230 massacres. It has also caused the worst famine in decades. Though this didn’t start as another self-determination conflict, it is fast tilting along that line as more Tigrayans are now seeing independence as a desirable option following months of unrest.

Given the emerging crises, referendums should perhaps be considered as the way out. But in some countries, such as Nigeria, there is no provision for such in their constitution. This begs the question: who’s afraid of a referendum? The answer may not be far fetched, looking at the political structures in most African countries. Wealth and political power distribution reek of inequality that usually favours some regions or tribes at the expense of others.

For instance, since the unification of British Southern Cameroon and French Cameroun, the country has been ruled by Francophone speaking leaders. Many of the central government’s policies are considered unfavourable to the English-speaking parts, leading to the call for their own independent state, Ambazonia.

In Nigeria, the crude oil that represents a huge part of government revenue comes from the Niger Delta region. But most of the oil blocks are owned by individuals from the northern part of the country. The oil-producing region is also one of the most impoverished and degraded in Nigeria, owing to decades of oil exploration which leaves the environment in a mess with fishing, locals’ primary source of income grounded due to oil spillage on their waters.

Similarly, the so-called political elites have consciously created a massive disparity between them and the masses. Poverty and illiteracy seem to have been weaponized and used in keeping the general public suppressed. These elites who benefit from the rot have ensured the status quo remains through unfavourable.

It is difficult to ascertain the exact war-related deaths and economic losses in Africa due to many unreported or underestimated cases. However, going by the conflict trends in the past few decades, we have had too many human and economic losses enough to make African leaders re-strategize their governance approach. The crises are also responsible for the current economic and social retardation across sectors. A recent UN report says 32 million Africans are forcibly displaced by repression and conflicts.

This has plunged the continent into a devastating refugee crisis. Many of the displaced persons also seek refuge outside the continent. Europe is one of the continents that has witnessed a surge in asylum seekers from Africa, due to the recent heightened of armed conflicts. Some of them access Europe through unconventional routes, such as boat rides through the Mediterranean Sea. They endanger their lives with the hope of securing permanent residence in their country of destination, such as Indefinite Leave to Remain in the UK. In the past seven years, more than 20,000 migrant deaths have occurred at sea.

How long would the continent continue to experience conflict-related devastations before long-lasting solutions are brought to the fore? Perhaps, it is high time African countries re-negotiated their coexistence and started embracing peaceful dissolution where living together brings more problems than opportunities.

Source: Defenceweb

A senior aide to the Vice President of the Southern Cameroons Interim Government has slammed the French government under President Macron saying Paris is hindering a political resolution of the conflict gripping British Southern Cameroons.

In a conversation on Thursday with Cameroon Concord News, Dr. Patrick Ayuk said, “Paris meddling in La Republique du Cameroun has led to the violation of Southern Cameroon’s national sovereignty through military acts of aggression by French surrogates in Yaoundé.”

“The French brought Boko Haram to Nigeria, Niger and Chad including La Republique du Cameroun with itself to market Made in France military hardware in West Africa” he added.

Dr Patrick Ayuk said, “French policies in Africa have been a disaster in all aspects of livelihood and they are now preventing a political solution to the crisis in Southern Cameroons.”

The Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo regime launched a devastating military aggression against the people of Southern Cameroons four years ago in collaboration with the French who provided arms and logistics support.

The aim was to suppress the Southern Cameroons resistance and crush the Ambazonia Restoration Forces. The war has stopped well shy of all of its goals, despite killing of thousands of Southern Cameroonians and turning the entire Southern Cameroons homeland into the scene of Africa’s worst humanitarian crisis.

Ambazonia Restoration forces have gone from strength to strength against the French-backed French Cameroun invaders, and left the so-called Cameroon government military bogged down in Southern Cameroons.

By Isong Asu

The Southern Cameroons Department of Foreign Affairs says French Cameroun army soldiers deployed to the Ambazonian homeland have no legal mandate to stay in the country under the allegations of fighting separatists.

“Southern Cameroons Self Defense groups are very much aware of the fact that French Cameroun armed forces have no legal mandate to operate in the Federal Republic of Ambazonia. The fact that Yaoundé is still discussing British Southern Cameroons issues is just ridiculous” the Ambazonia Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement recently.

Earlier, Prof Carlson Anyangwe, a prominent figure within the Foreign Affairs Department told Cameroon Concord News that the presence of French Cameroun soldiers in Southern Cameroons violates international law. Prof Anyangwe added that the French Cameroun deployment is meant to plunder Southern Cameroons resources.

The 88-year-old French Cameroun dictator President Biya admitted on more than one occasion that French Cameroun have been implementing the policy of assimilation in Southern Cameroons.

The War in Ambazonia has already claimed at least 40 000 lives, almost all of them civilian children, men and women, murdered by Cameroun troops in a series of targeted killings, organized massacres, and killings by fire in over 400 villages burnt down to ashes across Ambazonia. Over half a million people have been forcibly displaced as refugees living in various countries and especially in refugee camps in Nigeria. Over another half a million people have become IDPs hiding in forests, caves and hills due to forced displacement. Additionally, over 1.5 million people are facing a humanitarian disaster.

La Republique du Cameroun uses not only arson and the destruction of food, livestock, and crops in the fields as weapons of war. It also uses rape. Rape of Ambazonian women and girls by Cameroun troops is systematic and widespread. This agonizing situation is compounded by the fact that a high percentage of Cameroun troops are HIV positive and also has other STDs. When they rape they infect the women and girls. This appears to be part of the genocide agenda of Cameroun. Reports are now emerging of scores of school girls raped, impregnated and infected by La Republique du Cameroun’s troops. This poses a nightmare not only of the HIV and STD infections but also of rampant teenage pregnancies. Cameroun troops have burnt down health facilities and killed health workers in rural and semi-urban areas. Accessing health facilities or health practitioners is a huge challenge for rural and semi-urban folks.

Why the people of Ambazonia are fighting

Self-determination under international law

The people of Ambazonia are fighting to vindicate their unquestionable and inalienable right of self-determination. They will continue to fight until self-determination is achieved. The right of self-determination is a norm of jus cogens. It is fortified by the internationally-secured territorial framework of the territory of Ambazonia, a framework standing firmly on two territorial treaty-based pillars.

Legitimate rejection of colonialism in any form, shape or manifestation: The fight of the people of Ambazonia also represents a strong and unyielding rejection of colonialism in any form, shape or manifestation. The rejection is consistent with international law which gives colonized people struggling for their liberation the right to the assistance of third parties.

Territory secured by boundary treaties

The territory of Ambazonia is safeguarded by international treaties. Ambazonia’s international boundary to the north and to the west down to the Bakassi Peninsula is well defined by, and is now demarcated on the basis of, the Anglo-German treaty of 1913 specifying the boundary between the British territory of Nigeria and the German territory of Kamerun. Ambazonia’s international boundary to the east is defined and demarcated on the basis of the Anglo-French treaty of 1916. The boundary alignment was endorsed in 1919 at the Treaties of Versailles, confirmed by the League of Nations in 1922, and reconfirmed by the Anglo-French treaty of 1931 respecting the boundary between the British Cameroons and French Cameroun. The territorial integrity of Ambazonia is thus firmly secured under international law.

Title to territory and the principle of utipossidetisjuris

 Sovereign title to the territory of Ambazonia belongs to the people of Ambazonia, and not to any other people. The people of Ambazonia are entitled to the integrity of their territory. And this means Republique du Cameroun, which achieved its independence from France on 1 January 1960, must respect the integrity of its own territory, respect the AU core principle of intangibility of African borders as obtained on the day of achievement of independence, and abandons its pursuit of the internationally wrongful conduct of territorial expansionism.

By Chi Prudence Asong with additional reporting from Camcordnews political desk

The news from Geneva and Southern Cameroons is not good! The Cameroon Concord News Group’s correspondent in Geneva has succeeded to obtain pictures of the ailing Cameroon president, Paul Biya, in his sick bed and the news is unsettling to his family and supporters. For purposes of decency, the Cameroon Concord News Group editorial team has decided not to release the pictures out of respect for the president’s family.

The man who declared a war against his own people and triggered an orgy of killing in the two English-speaking regions of the country is now fighting for his own life. The gods are calling him, but he is still hanging on. His life now hangs by a thread. Age and co-morbidities have reduced him into a bag of bones and even his family is now gradually coming to terms with the fact that he could exit anytime time soon.

According to a source in Geneva, the Swiss health experts attending to Mr. Biya are really concerned. His brief stay in Europe is turning out to be one long boring stay for members of his entourage who are already homesick. Many have been heard grumbling, but they are making sure their frustration and unhappiness do not fall into the ears of the first lady who is also very busy with her shopping. She seems to be on tourism in Europe even when her “sugar husband” is slipping in and out of a disturbing coma. After the Cannes Film festival, she has been spotted in a few other places where she is visibly enjoying herself while her husband slowly fades away.

The Biya family seems to have accepted that the time for Mr. Biya to join his ancestors has come. The brain surgery coupled with his diabetes and heart problems are robbing his family of its happiness. Though it will be a source of joy if the Yaoundé strongman is patched up and sent home sooner rather than later, some family members are already yielding to the fact that the man who has brought them huge financial gains and enormous political embarrassment may not go back home sitting in front of the private jet that is costing the country a fortune.

A source close to the ruling party, which elected anonymity, has expressed grave concerns about the president’s health, citing sources in Geneva that have seen the ailing president in an awful state.

“We are hoping for the best, but we are also preparing for the worst. At almost 90 years, nobody can be in the pink of health. Mr. Biya is really fighting for his dear life. The burden of responsibility and political stress have really combined to take a toll on his fragile health. Mr. Biya’s life is really hanging by a thread. People within the ruling party and the corridors of power are really scared of the worst. Biya is in a very bad state and we are really concerned. The brief visit to Europe is turning out to be an endless visit. Mr. Biya might end up applying for residency out there because of his failing health,” the source said.

“We cannot keep on pretending. Nobody has seen Mr. Biya in any tourist attraction in Europe. He has not visited any mall or any major attractive landmark out there. He has not been received by any European leader and nobody has seen him in public. This does not look like a normal holiday or visit. From his Intercontinental Hotel room, he was hauled straight into a clinic in Geneva where he has been pinned down by multiple health problems,” the source added.  

“The latest information someone at the Presidency received was that the old man has lost his appetite, not only for food, but also for life. We don’t know if it’s about the type of food they have out there or if it’s just his organs that are failing him. At his age, if he is not eating, then this is really bad news for his biological and political family. A lot is going to fall apart if Mr. Biya makes up his mind to cross over. There are many people who are already ready to leave the country. They have supported the regime blindly for too long and many do not know how they will live with Cameroonians when things really fall apart, and they may fall apart sooner rather than later,” the source stressed.

“It is over a month since Mr. Biya’s brief visit started and it is already morphing into a long torturing visit and there is unfortunately no official statement about him and his health. The country is now like a rudderless ship and the internal conflicts within the government are clearly causing the boat to sink. Members of the president’s inner circle are taking advantage of the vacuum created by Mr. Biya’s absence to do things however they want. This long absence is, indeed, a true test of our institutions. We do not know who is leading the country now. From time to time, we see a short press release from the presidency of the republic, but there are clear signs that there is a leadership issue that needs to be addressed forthwith. I fear the shit is finally flying all over the place and there is nobody to take charge. The Senate president is really struggling with his own never-ending health issues while the Speaker of the National Assembly is scared of the inevitable as his breathing problems get worse by the day. This is really a country on life support,” the source regretted.  

“Mr. Biya’s health is indeed the elephant in the room that nobody wants to talk about. His own ministers are just too scared to mention it. The Secretary General at the Presidency, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, who receives orders from Chantal Biya is too scared to even make mention of the president’s failing health. To him, that is a topic that is not up for discussion and anybody who dares to ask him questions about the issue is immediately reminded that the issue cannot be discussed by anybody in Cameroon,” the source stressed.  

 But it is not only the battle for his life that Mr. Biya is losing. He is already staring down the barrel of defeat in Southern Cameroons where the tides have turned strongly against government forces which are either too scared or too demoralized to engage the “boyses in the bushes” in any real combat.  

The war Mr. Biya hastily declared against his own citizens some four years ago is very bad news for him and his government now. Before he left for his short private visit to Switzerland, his army soldiers were already dropping dead like flies and this has only gotten worse ever since he sank into a deep and disturbing coma.  

Over the last month, the military has lost lots of soldiers and equipment, especially as the brave Ambazonian fighters have changed their tactics and have acquired more deadly weapons which have given them strong confidence and a deep sense of invincibility.

In many parts of Southern Cameroons, army soldiers are being driven away by the fighters who have no mercy towards any soldiers they capture. Many graphic pictures of dying and maimed soldiers have emerged on social media, underscoring that there will be no military victory in the war that has pitted the government against its English-speaking minority, even if the soldiers take all their sophisticated equipment to the two English-speaking regions.

In towns like Ossing, soldiers were chased from the timber camp they had been guarding, an incident that resulted in the death of a soldier and the torching of the massive timber camp and all the timber trucks that were in the camp. Many witnesses say the camp was attacked because soldiers had destroyed a lady’s business in Ossing after it had been alleged that the killers of a soldier in Akwen, a village in Manyu Division, had been seen drinking in that off-license.

 In many localities in the North West region, many soldiers have been brought down in very humiliating circumstances. Many within the government are already calling for the government to sue for peace, especially as the situation is getting out of control. In Yaounde, many soldiers are scared of going to Southern Cameroons, as the two English-speaking regions now represent a death sentence to many of them.

Pressure is mounting on the government, as many families in East Cameroon have been personally affected by a conflict they know nothing about. Many families in the Center and South regions which have been solidly behind the reckless and irresponsible government have been burying their loved ones killed in battle and this has made them to understand that the war they thought would crush the separatists for good is also hurting them in a very big and bad way. Many of them are no longer supporting government war efforts and are openly questioning the rationale behind the war that could have been avoided.

Biya might have won many battles which might have given him the false belief that he can beat any odds. He has succeeded to stay in power by crook and this has hurt many people who hold that he is not up to the task.  But 2021 might be different for Mr. Biya. He cannot always get his way. Nature can sometimes intervene to alter decisions. His current situation is not good. It is a major concern to his entourage. It will be a miracle if he emerges from this challenging situation. He is, indeed, losing it. He is also losing in Southern Cameroons in a war he hastily declared. These two battles are certainly too much for him to handle. He is clearly losing them.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai with correspondent reports from Geneva and Yaoundé

Nobody ever gave them a fighting chance when they started defending their territory with sticks and machetes.

The government saw them like clowns and the president easily dispatched soldiers to the two English-speaking regions of the country to crush them.

The country’s defense minister, Joseph Beti Assomo, arrogantly said the president’s orders would be enforced without pity. He was sure victory would be his in a few days. He simply did not know that there were huge surprises for him and his soldiers in Southern Cameroon and surprise could beat even the bravest.

In desperation, the boys who are today known as Amba Boys, scrambled for weapons. They took whatever they saw, but their best weapon was the hunting rifle which did deliver much. They had to fight. The enemy was determined and ferocious. He was not in Amba land for tourism. He was there to kill and kill he did.

They did not lose hope. They used the region’s jungle as a hideout, waiting for soldiers to make their mistakes, and mistakes they made which led to many knowing that the hunting rifle could be dangerous.

As time went on, the war’s story line started changing. Those who felt they had best weapons on earth and the monopoly of violence started moderating their narrative.

Those they had tagged as a handful of terrorists who wanted to destabilize the fatherland were really standing their ground and inflicting huge damage on the so-called professionally trained soldiers.

Instead of fighting the boys in the bushes, the professionally trained soldiers started killing whoever they met. Women, children and even the disabled were shot point blank by troops who wanted to demonstrate that they were on top of things. They had brought death and destruction to Southern Cameroons. Theirs was a war of attrition to discourage the population from supporting Amba fighters.

But they had underestimated the people’s determination. There is no military that can be greater than a people. Instead of winning hearts and minds, the Francophone dominated military made big and many enemies! Their winning and best strategy could not stand the test of time. This strategy like those which had preceded it would fall flat on its face as Amba fighters acquired more sophisticated weapons with the help of much-needed financial resources from the Southern Cameroonian Diaspora.

The once ragtag Amba fighters could now match the fire power of the Yaoundé military which was receiving massive support from the French and Chadians.

While civilian casualties have continued to race to the sky as the two elephants battle for the soul of the rich Southern Cameroons, the number of casualty on the military side has been big too, with more than two thousand soldiers killed and thousands maimed.

Most of those military men killed are from the center and south regions and each village in those regions is now aware of the dangers of war. Every parent who has a child in the military is now losing sleep. They don’t want to hear that their children have been deployed in any of the two English-speaking regions of the country.

Southern Cameroons has become a graveyard to the country’s military. Going to fight there is a one way ticket to an early grave. Amba fighters are determined.  The land is theirs and they are prepared to lay down their lives for their fatherland. They don’t forgive. Any soldier who crosses their path will never live to tell his ordeal.

The military and politicians are tired. The soldiers and politicians are completely demoralized and exhausted. Their best strategies have all failed.  The military death toll is a reminder that in a war, you cannot be sure that you will return home safely. The government had given the false impression that its soldiers would just sweep through Southern Cameroons, picking up all the boys they will meet in their path.

But the reality on the ground is always different. Academic theory is not always a reflection of reality.

Today, the game has changed. From hunting rifles and AK 47, Amba fighters have morphed into manufacturers of bombs and these bombs are a nightmare to the country’s military.

Their equipment is being wrecked, their soldiers killed and the military cannot pursue the fighters into the jungle. The tides have changed. Fear has moved to the side of the so-called brave and well trained soldiers.

The narrative is also changing. Federalism which was a crime when things started is now what all Yaoundé politicians are calling for.

Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor-Balla and Dr. Fontem Neba were kidnapped under the cover of darkness by the government and taken to Yaoundé because they insisted that federalism would deliver better results to Cameroon.

They were charged with all the crimes and sins in the world for calling for federalism.  Time and money were wasted on something that clearly lacked a raison d’être. Today, these greedy politicians are pleading with Southern Cameroonians to come to the negotiating table to discuss the once “forbidden fruit”.

Unfortunately, they are seeking to shut the barn when the horses have bolted. Amba fighters are not going to listen to them. They are for the total liberation of their land. Decades of exploitation and marginalization have turned them off. They want to turn that page. They have read the page. It is full of pain and death. Federalism will not cut it.

Thousands have died for a free Southern Cameroons and not for a federal system. Leaders are supposed to listen and not to oppress their people. The time for federalism is over.

From every indication, the fear of Amba fighters is the beginning of justice. Without Amba fighters, the Yaoundé government would not have thought about justice. Amba fighters could be reckless sometimes, but their courage and bravery should be appreciated by all Southern Cameroonians. Thanks to them, the government’s narrative and rhetoric are changing. Pride goes before a fall.

Cameroon is crashing and there is more in the pipeline for an arrogant government. The arrogance of those who have ruled the country over the last 40 years has pushed the country into a deep dark abyss. It will take the international community to pull the country from the brink.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

The position of the Minister-Secretary General at the presidency, who enjoys the support of first lady Chantal Biya, seems to be under threat. Until now, he has always managed to save his skin.

Africa Intelligence reported that all pro Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh aides who regularly accompany President Biya as a VIP guest at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva were not included in the recent delegation that travelled to Switzerland with the president.

Ngoh Ngoh was also involved in the controversial management of the Ebo forest that fanned the flames of an unending clan warfare that is tearing the Biya regime apart.

Fingers are also pointing at Minister Ngoh Ngoh following the sudden flaring up in less than a fortnight of the latent security crisis in Southern Cameroons together with tensions generated by the Franck Biya succession palaver.

Source: Africa Intelligence

Despite promises to the IMF, Biya continues to back his perennial company directors from his Beti Ewondo extractions.

The CPDM crime syndicate headed by 88-year-old President Paul Biya has negotiated several measures to reform the management of Cameroon’s public companies with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

However, Biya has kept his loyalists at the head of the main parastatals, some of whom have been in place for more than twenty years.

Source: Africa Intelligence