As the counting of the votes of last Sunday’s presidential election is underway at ELECAM, Cameroon’s election body, the French are not waiting for things to totally deteriorate before they step in.

The first figures point to a landslide by Mr. Issa Tchiroma Bakary who incarnates the population’s determination to change a system which has robbed them of their dignity and happiness.

According to a source at ELECAM which has elected anonymity, more than three million votes have already been computed and Mr. Issa Tchiroma has already won more than half of those votes.

Sunday’s vote is clearly a protest vote against the incumbent, Paul Biya, who has been in power for 43 years and has only succeeded to create poverty and misery for his people.

The French, who have been facing mounting opposition in French-speaking African countries, are scared of losing Cameroon seeing the population’s determination to kick out Mr. Biya who has enjoyed French protection for decades.

To stave off such a situation, they are negotiating behind the scenes for a peaceful transition which will protect their interest in the Central African country. With Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso out of the French orbit, there is increasing concern in Paris about the situation in Cameroon. The French hold Issa Tchiroma is a moderate and he is capable of protecting their interest having schooled and lived in France.

The French have seen the writing on the wall and they know that in the event of chaos, French interest will be threatened and in their opinion, Mr. Biya has overstayed his welcome in Yaoundé.

It should be underscored that Mr. Tchiroma’s communication during the election campaign was run by a private French firm and Paris is leveraging that connection to stay in touch with Mr. Tchiroma. 

The Biya regime is aware of that and it is already irate. The French want Biya out as he clearly belongs to the past. French interest in Cameroon is more important than Biya who is more of a liability given his age and health condition.

Sunday’s exit polls have left the Elysee very concerned and the determination demonstrated by northerners to protect Issa Tchiroma in the event of chaos is indeed awful.

Several opposition parties have already congratulated Mr. Tchiroma and the population is ready to face the military if the government resorts to its old ways. Northerners are prepared to defend their victory and they are calling on their southern brothers to act accordingly if they do not want the country to be split.

The French fear that if the North splits from the rest of the country, Anglophone separatists might take advantage of the situation to continue their fight for an independent Southern Cameroons.

A French delegation is expected at the Unity Palace soon to persuade Mr. Biya to accept the decision of the ballot boxes as a way for him to have an honorable exit from power. Mr. Biya who is in the grip of regime hawks such as Atanga Nji, Fame Ndongo and Chantal Biya, still believes that old crooked ways could still keep him in power for another seven years.

Meanwhile, there are fundraising efforts in North America and Europe to prepare for any eventuality as the Yaoundé regime is still doubling down. More than USD 500,000 has already been raised in just a day, with most donors being anonymous.

A new movement known as Gen-Z Cameroon is also underway to prepare Cameroonians for the worst if the Biya regime usurps power. Demonstrations are being planned across the country after the release of the election results if Mr. Biya is declared a winner.

This is a developing story and more will be yours as our inside sources inform us.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

A covert operation is in motion to declare the 92-year-old Biya as winner of the October 12 presidential election, Cameroon Intelligence Report investigative team has uncovered.

The diabolic harsh ploy and high-stakes battle are being implemented and waged by a consortium of CPDM crime syndicates with the support of a  coalition of political powerbrokers, governors and traditional rulers, who are determined to guarantee Biya’s continued stay in power.

Some few hours ago, the South West governor’s office released a document claiming to be the official South West result in which Biya reportedly defeated his main challenger Issa Tchiroma Bakary.

But Cameroonians are watching. Democracy advocates, political commentators, and even ordinary citizens are beginning to push back. Will their voices be enough to stop this plot before it is too late?

Cat-calls have greeted the South West so-called results that were published in the French language with many wondering aloud why ELECAM officials in the South West who are all Anglophones should be releasing presidential election results in French.

As news of the South West region result spreads, reactions from Cameroonians have been swift and angry. From the streets of Garoua where Issa Tchiroma’s residence was cordoned off to online discussions, citizens are voicing their anger.

‘If they rig 2025, Cameroon will explode! We cannot keep watching them destroy our homeland’ an aide to Issa Tchiroma told Cameroon Intelligence Report

‘These CPDM criminals think we don’t know what they are doing, but we do. The political class wants us to believe that Cameroon is Biya and Biya is Cameroon! We must resist it’ a Douala based activist said.

‘They promised us that ELECAM will be independent, but what we are getting is an ELECAM that is run by the Minister of Territorial Administration. Cameroon is being hijacked!’ Rita Akana our Yaoundé city reporter observed.

‘Why are they afraid of releasing the election results after a process that went smoothly? If you say Biya has done well, you won’t need to manipulate ELECAM’ an Issa Tchiroma supporter was quoted as saying.

These voices represent the growing frustration among Cameroonians who feel betrayed by a political class that continuously undermines democracy and the rule of law.

The clock is ticking. Will Cameroonians let their votes be stolen before they are even counted?

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai with files

Vote counting is under way in Cameroon following Sunday’s presidential election in which incumbent Paul Biya is seeking to extend his 43 years in power.

Biya, who at 92 is the world’s oldest head of state, is being challenged by nine candidates. If he wins, it will be his eighth consecutive term in office, with the next election due in 2032.

Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji said that voting took place “hitch-free” across the country. But there was a call for a boycott in the English-speaking regions in the west and there were reports of clashes in the north.

The final result should be known within 15 days of the vote.

In the run-up to the election there were complaints from the opposition of attempts to suppress their support.

In August, the Constitutional Council barred 71-year old Maurice Kamto, widely viewed as the main challenger, from taking part.

On Sunday, angry supporters of leading opposition candidate and former Biya ally, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, 76, took to the streets in his stronghold of Garoua. They clashed with security forces, who fired tear gas, after his residence was cordoned off.

Earlier in the day, Tchiroma had said he was the subject of threats.

“It is not Tchiroma who is the problem, he told reporters, adding that he “places himself under the protection of God and the Cameroonian people.”

“I am at home; I will not move. If they intend to come and take me away from home, I will not move,” he declared.

Despite this Interior Minister Nji said the polls were held without major incidents in all 10 regions of the country.

He did not comment on the situation in Garoua but rather repeated previous claims that some presidential candidates were planning to publish the results of the election ahead of the official declaration.

Nji described this as a major red line, threatening action against anyone suspected of breaking the law.

In the two restive Anglophone regions, where separatists attempted to bar residents from voting, some did turn out at the polling stations. But many others stayed away for fear of reprisals.

Source: BBC

Bello Bouba Maigari is counting on being offered the presidency as a compromise to wedge off Issa Tchiroma Bakary, if the latter wins. “Bello is hoping to be Tshisekedied and Tchiroma Fayulued”, said an authoritative source associated to Bello’s campaign, in a good position to be believed.

The source was referring to the outcome of the presidential election of December 2018 in the Democratic Republic of Congo where it emerged that Martin Fayulu, the opposition consensual candidate backed by disqualified credible candidates including Jean Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, was the actual winner of the polls but Felix Tshisekedi, who came second by verified election results, was declared the winner because outgoing president, Joseph Kabila was uncomfortable about handing power to a radical and authentic opposition leader.

According to a TV5Monde (Information.TV5Monde.Com) report on 15 January 2019, titled “Elections en RDC : Martin Fayulu est-il le vrai vainqueur ?”, three authoritative international news outlets, The Financial Times, RFI and TV5Monde in collaboration with a DRC study group, obtained documents that attested to the fact that both the Congolese electoral commission and the Congolese Episcopal Conference (Bishops) have documented proof that Fayulu won the election.

Speaking to Cameroon Intelligence Report senior correspondent and a couple of other journalists in Yaoundé on 7 October, our source Bello was not going to agree to a coalition with Tchiroma because of the Tshisekedi/Fayulu calculation which he believes the regime in Yaoundé would resort to if it became evident they would lose the 12 October presidential election.

Our source, who is familiar with Cameroon’s early multiparty politics and connected at very high level in Cameroon and across Africa and the world, said he has been having conversations with well-placed personalities in Yaoundé and drew anecdotes from Cameroon’s 1992 post-election deadlock when certain credible national and international organizations said opposition SDF candidate, John Fru Ndi, defeated incumbent Paul Biya though the Supreme Court declared Biya as the winner.

“I’m aware of a conversation between then Minister of Territorial Administration, Gilbert Andze Tsoungui and Barrister Ben Muna where Tsoungui told Muna, ‘Do you think we can hand this country to a book seller who speaks neither French nor English? If it were you, we’d be sure the country would be in safer hands and we would tell President Biya that he has lost and there is nothing we can do’,” said our source.

Fru Ndi was famously referred to at the time as an illiterate book seller because he campaigned around the country in Pidgin English, widely understood around the country as a lingua franca, in a calculated quest to be understood by all and sundry.

Ben Muna was a former Cameroon Bar Council chairman (Batonnier), bilingual and son of former National Assembly speaker, Solomon Tandeng Muna. Though a fiery critic of the regime from his Bar position, breaking the government’s initial resistance to multiparty politics and later a topnotch member of the opposition SDF, he was considered within certain circles as someone the regime could accommodate, at the worst.

“The people in Yaoundé are more comfortable with Bello as a prince of the system from Ahidjo’s time,” said our source. “They are not comfortable with Tchiroma. They may tamper with the results and place Tchiroma third. But what I see in the crowds turning out for Tchiroma is an uprising or possibly worse if certain institutions decide to step in as has been seen in other places.”

From an early semblance of parity perceived from turnouts at rallies by Bello and Tchiroma ahead of the launch of official campaigns, Tchiroma clearly emerged as the frontrunner throughout the 15-day campaign, pulling unprecedented huge and energized crowds of supporters all over the country.

Even in Garoua, turnout at Bello’s rallies regressed to near nothing. “Bello’s rallies looked like the installation of subsection excos,” said a journalist covering both Bello and Tchiroma campaigns.

By Franklin Sone Bayen on special assignment in Garoua

The world’s oldest head of state – 92-year-old Paul Biya – has promised Cameroon’s electorate “the best is still to come” as he seeks his eighth consecutive presidential term on Sunday.

The nonagenarian has already been in power since 1982 – another seven-year mandate could see him rule for 50 years until he will be almost 100.

He defied widespread calls to step down and has been criticised for only showing up for one rally, spending most of the campaign period on a 10-day private trip to Europe.

A backlash over his reliance on an AI-generated campaign video, as his opponents actively wooed voters on the ground, saw him rush north on his return home.

In the vote-rich city of Maroua on Tuesday he addressed crowds of his party supporters – reaching out in particular to women and young people, promising to prioritise their plight in his next mandate.

“I will keep my word,” he insisted, urging them to “give me your valuable support once again”.

But political analyst Immanuel Wanah tells the BBC that Biya’s primary focus since coming to power has been to stay in power, “often at the expense of efforts to enhance the living conditions of the country’s citizens”.

It is a view echoed by Dr Tilarius Atia, another political analyst, who puts this survivalist mindset down to an abortive coup against Biya in 1984.

It means that for the vast majority of the population, Biya is the only president they have known – more than 60% of Cameroon’s 30 million people are below the age of 25.

Young political activist Marie Flore Mboussi is desperate for “new blood” as she believes “longevity in power inevitably leads to a kind of laziness”.

“After 43 years, the people are tired,” she tells the BBC.

The presidential election comes amid growing concerns about inflation, security challenges, poor social services, corruption and unemployment.

Youth unemployment has been a particular talking point for most of the candidates running in the election.

Michel Mvondo/BBC

Young people are more inclined to emigrate abroad because they tell themselves that inside the country, they do not have the possibility of becoming somebody”Vanina Nzekui, a 26-year-old graduate

Nearly 40% of young Cameroonians between the ages of 15 and 35 are unemployed, with 23% of young graduates facing challenges in obtaining formal employment, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

“Young people are more inclined to emigrate abroad because they tell themselves that inside the country, they do not have the possibility of becoming somebody,” 26-old-year graduate Vanina Nzekui tells the BBC.

“They tell themselves that all positions are occupied by older people,” she says, adding that this comes at the cost of using their skills to help develop the country.

But Aziseh Mbi, 23, believes age should not be a criterion for leadership.

In Biya’s case, the civil society activist says, the president has been able to do “significant things,” citing several youth initiatives.

Beyond youth unemployment, the electoral process has also stirred controversy, especially with the exclusion of Maurice Kamto from the presidential race.

In July the electoral body barred the 71-year-old opposition leader from running because a rival faction of the party that had endorsed him presented someone else as a candidate.

His exclusion, confirmed by the Constitutional Council, was widely criticised as a ploy to prevent any strong challenge to President Biya.

After coming second in the 2018 presidential election, Kamto claimed victory and organised street protests.

“The exclusion of Prof Kamto waters down the legitimacy of our democracy because we should have been fair enough to allow for everybody to partake,” says Dr Atia.

Mr Wanah agrees that the absence of the country’s main opposition figure “reinforces the perception that truly fair elections cannot take place in Cameroon”.

Twelve candidates were approved to contest for the country’s top job, including Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maigari – both former Biya allies from the north of the country. They resigned from their ministerial positions in government to take on their boss.

Lawmaker Cabral Libii, chairman of the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) party Joshua Osih and Patricia Tomaïno Ndam Njoya – the lone female candidate – are also in the race.

At the launch of the election campaign, two aspirants, including renowned anti-corruption lawyer Akere Muna, withdrew their candidacies to support Maigari of the NUDP party. This means 10 people will now compete for the presidency.

Prior to the poll – which will only be a single-round vote as the person with the most votes will win – there had been widespread calls for the opposition to present a single candidate to challenge Biya, who has never lost an election.

Tchiroma Bakary has secured the support of the Union for Change, a coalition of more than 50 political groups and civil society organisations who presented him as the opposition’s consensus candidate.

But the initiative has failed to gain unanimity, with others refusing to rally behind him.

Kamto said he had held talks with some aspirants, including the two northern figures Tchiroma Bakary and Maigari, encouraging them to unite. As neither seemed ready to step down, he urged Cameroonians to vote for whomever they preferred.

Dr Atia reckons the failure to endorse one candidate under a single coalition will cost the opposition at the ballot box.

On the campaign trail, 76-year-old Tchiroma Bakary, a former government spokesperson, has been pulling big crowds – with some analysts positioning the Cameroon National Salvation Front party leader as Biya’s main challenger.

On Sunday, thousands of supporters waited for hours in the rain to see him in the economic capital Douala.

He has promised to reform the system of which he was a part for two decades.

Despite Tchiroma Bakary’s support base in the north, analysts say Biya is likely to overpower him and the other opposition candidates.

“President Biya just needs a slim majority to win the election, and I see him winning despite the efforts being made by the opposition,” says Dr Atia.

In Cameroon’s English-speaking North-West and South-West regions, where a long-running separatist conflict continues, an election boycott lockdown has been imposed, paralysing business activities, movement and education.

The separatists who have imposed it have threatened to target anyone who does vote.

“We have seen people [who] have been pulled out of their homes and slaughtered in cold blood, before, during, and even well after [previous] elections when they are identified,” Samah Abang-Mugwa, a resident of one of the Anglophone regions, tells the BBC – adding that he will not risk casting his ballot.

Since 2017, those seeking to create a breakaway state have been fighting government forces. They are angered by what they see as the marginalisation of Cameroon’s minority Anglophone community by the Francophone-dominated government.

The conflict has so far killed at least 6,000 people and forced nearly half a million others from their homes, according to the UN.

According to civil society activist Abine Ayah, the likely exclusion of much of the English-speaking community could undermine the legitimacy of the election.

Although Biya says his government has made significant efforts to resolve the conflict, his opponents in the presidential race continue to criticise his handling of the situation.

After Sunday’s vote, the Constitutional Council has 15 days to announce the results.

The interior minister has already warned that no candidate is allowed to declare victory beforehand.

Paul Atanga Nji made the comments on the eve of the last day of campaigning.

“Those who will attempt to announce results of the presidential election or any self-proclaimed victory in violation of the laws of the republic would have crossed the red line and should be ready to face the retaliatory measures commensurate to their crime.”

Culled from the BBC