6, October 2018
Nigeria: Opposition PDP holds critical primaries to choose Buhari opponent 0
Nigeria’s main opposition party will have its unity tested in the aftermath of this weekend’s primaries for the presidential flag-bearer, which is being contested by several political heavyweights in the party.
Both the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will hold primary elections this weekend to select their nominees for presidential polls scheduled for February 2019.
While President Muhammadu Buhari is likely to be unanimously endorsed to contest a second term at the APC convention in Abuja, the opposition PDP which was in office from 1999 until 2015 has a tighter race in the southern city of Port Harcourt.
PDP’s candidates
The leading contenders in the race to be PDP presidential flag-bearer are former allies of Buhari, who fell out with his administration, and defected to the opposition.
But since then, Buhari’s party has seen a wave of defections in protest at his leadership style and a surge in PDP contenders that could give it momentum as the vote approaches.
Perennial presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, a 71-year-old former vice-president from the northeastern state of Adamawa, was the one of the first big names to throw his hat in the ring.
Then, after lawmakers crossed the floor in July, former Kano state governor Rabiu Kwankwaso emerged as a leading opposition candidate, promising he can secure the key northern state.
Sokoto state governor Aminu Tambuwal joined the PDP defectors and declared his candidacy to pry northern voters away from Buhari, who enjoys mass support across the north.
Finally, the ambitious Senate leader Bukola Saraki, a former Kwara state governor who is seen as the shepherd of the defectors, announced he would campaign for the top job.
The likely chosen candidate is expected to come from the Muslim-majotity North, following an unwritten rule in Nigeria that the presidency should alternate every two terms between a candidate from the north and south.
Unity beyond primaries?
Rising tensions and divisions have been reflected in hotly contested local party primaries, said Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development in Abuja.
“These primaries have been fractious,” she said. “It’s one of the most contentious in a long time.”
After the PDP officially chooses its presidential candidate, the party will select a running mate, who will likely come from the largely Christian south.
“What we’re waiting to see is if the (PDP) will be able to continue as one,” said Hassan. “Now they are putting up a united front — but will that continue?”
AFP



















6, October 2018
Still Time to Increase Chance of Peaceful Poll in Cameroon – A Letter from Crisis Group 0
Dear friends of Crisis Group,
On 7 October 2018, Cameroonians will vote in a precarious presidential election. The political climate is tense, the economy unsteady and the country is threatened by Boko Haram in the Far North and armed separatists groups in the Anglophone regions in the Northwest and Southwest. A few days ahead of polling day, communal tensions are also growing, while new movements are forming across the country, which, though still embryonic, reject the election.
Crisis Group has been closely following recent developments in Cameroon and their implications for the upcoming election, along with a steady flow of reporting since 2014 on Boko Haram in the country’s Far North, and on the Anglophone crisis since 2016. Our publications provide an overview of key issues surrounding the vote. We have prepared a full reading list, and outline some of our key publications below.
Today, our briefing entitled Cameroon: Divisions Widen Ahead of Presidential Vote was made available in full in both English and French. In it, we argue that the government and armed Anglophone separatists still have time to declare a ceasefire to improve prospects for a peaceful poll in areas affected by the conflict. In addition, the government should strike a more conciliatory tone toward the Anglophone conflict and make moves to curb rhetoric stigmatising specific ethnic groups across the country. Outside powers – in particular the African Union, France, the UN and the U.S. – should use the days before the election to push for a ceasefire while taking a firmer line against leaders implicated in violence on either side. They should also call on the government to refrain from cracking down violently against any protests that take place around the vote.
In September, Crisis Group issued a statement calling for national and international support for the proposed Anglophone General Conference. We argue that the conference could offer a decisive breakthrough in the Anglophone crisis if all parties, including the separatists, attend.
As fighting between government forces and Boko Haram insurgents in Cameroon’s Far North diminishes, a lasting peace depends on how the government deals with former members of the jihadist movement, its former prisoners and the vigilante groups set up to fight it. Our August report advocates for community service, public confessions, symbolic ceremonies and vocational training to help reintegrate those who do not pose a threat.
The danger of bloodshed around this weekend’s vote is high in Anglophone regions, and insecurity in the Far North will hinder the administration of the poll. In a more peaceful climate, the election could offer the political renewal Cameroon needs. As things stand, it risks further polarising society. Though time is short before the vote, these parties could take steps to calm tensions and reduce this risk.
Dr. Comfort Ero
Director, Africa Program
International Crisis Group