16, January 2020
Russia: How President Putin is preparing to rule for ever 0
WHAT IS VLADIMIR PUTIN playing at? On January 15th Russia’s president took Kremlin-watchers by surprise. In his state-of-the-union speech, he announced a radical overhaul of the Russian constitution and a referendum on its proposed (still very unclear) terms. This bombshell was immediately followed by another. The prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, resigned along with the entire cabinet. As The Economist went to press, the reasons for Mr Medvedev’s ejection and replacement by an obscure technocrat remained a riddle wrapped in a mystery.
To understand what might be going on, start with a simple fact. In the past 20 years Mr Putin’s regime has killed too many people, and misappropriated too many billions, to make it plausible that he would ever voluntarily give up effective power. Under the current constitution he cannot run again for president when his term expires in 2024, since no one is allowed more than two consecutive terms. So everyone has always assumed that one way or another he would game the rules to remain top dog. He already has form on this. His first two terms as president ran from 2000 to 2008. Term-limited out for the first time, he became prime minister for four years, during which time Mr Medvedev served as a distinctly neutered president. In 2012 Mr Putin was back in the suddenly re-empowered presidency, and was re-elected to a second term in 2018. The only enigma has ever been what job he would jump to in 2024.
We still do not know. One option, clearly, is for Mr Putin to return to being prime minister; an argument for this happening is his statement that the new arrangements he is seeking will make the post more important, with full powers to appoint the cabinet (subject to confirmation by parliament, which Mr Putin’s loyal United Russia party controls), rather than letting the president pick them. Another, and more likely, option is that Mr Putin will seek to maintain his hold on power by continuing to head a vaguely defined but powerful body called the State Council, which (funnily enough) Mr Putin said in his speech should be given more powers under the rejig.
In reality the details do not much matter. Russia is a dictatorship masquerading as a democracy. Mr Putin’s electoral successes owe much to years of economic growth (now brought to an end by corruption, uncompetitiveness, the end of the oil boom and Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014) and the popularity of his reassertion of Soviet-era imperium. But they owe perhaps even more to state control of television, the barring of popular opposition candidates, the co-opting of tame opposition parties and the arrests and intimidation dished out to the less tame ones. The murder of political opponents is no way to foster genuine competition for power.
Whether Mr Putin is president, prime minister, head of the State Council or honorary chairman of the National Bridge Association (the post through which Deng Xiaoping ruled China for years after stepping down from his more prestigious offices), makes a lot less difference than it would in a real democracy. Nor does anyone know what the final shape of the new constitution will be. Mr Putin may decide, as many a despot has done before him, that a new constitution means resetting the existing term limits. Or, as Xi Jinping did in China in 2018, he could simply scrap term limits altogether (he says he does not want to do this). Mr Xi did not even bother with a referendum, pushing the change that will allow him to rule indefinitely through the supine National People’s Congress with 2,959 votes out of 2,964. Another model is offered by Kazakhstan, where Nursultan Nazarbayev, who became his independent country’s first president in 1990, stepped down last year—only to stay on as leader of the ruling party and holder of the title “Leader of the Nation”.
America would once have spoken out against such rule-twisting. Under Donald Trump, it does not; the American president makes little secret of his admiration for strongmen. Nor is the EU likely to do more than mutter as Mr Putin glues himself to the throne. It is spooked by a rising China and dependent on Russia for its gas supplies. The world’s autocrats will watch events in Moscow with interest, to see if Mr Putin can offer them useful tips for extending their own rule. For democrats everywhere, the only comfort is that even rulers-for-life don’t live for ever.
Culled from The Economist




















17, January 2020
Russia’s Mikhail Mishustin: the unknown tax chief surprisingly promoted to Prime Minister by Putin 0
President Vladimir Putin nominated a new prime minister on Wednesday 15 January after the shock resignation of Dmitry Medvedev, who has been at the head of the government since 2012. Medvedev will be succeeded by Mikhail Mishustin, who until now was a barely known tax chief with no political clout.
After announcing a profound overhaul of Russian institutions and a reform of the constitution in his annual State of the Nation address, Putin proposed Mishustin as the new head of government, following the surprise resignation of the prime minister in office for nearly eight years, Medvedev.
Mishustin had been the head of the Russian tax service since 2010 until Medvedev’s bombshell announcement propelled him to the position of PM.
Russia’s lawmakers quickly approved Mishustin as prime minister on Thursday in a vote in the Duma, or the lower house, less than 24 hours after Putin had nominated him.
Mishustin received 383 votes of 424 cast, with no votes against and 41 abstentions in a victory that had been all but assured when he won the unanimous backing of his party, United Russia, which has a strong majority in the chamber.
Mishustin will have a week to propose a new government and ministers.
He told United Russia that some changes in the cabinet would be made but did not elaborate, lawmaker Viktor Vodolatsky told Interfax.
‘Surprise nomination’
Mishustin, a 53-year-old Moscow civil servant who shares a passion for ice hockey with Putin, is little known by the general public.
Known as a technocrat who loves new technologies and has remained well out of the Russian political arena, his appointment has shocked some experts. “The appointment of an obscure second-rate unknown is a surprise,” reports Nick Holdsworth, FRANCE 24’s correspondent in Russia.
“Commentators had instead put forward other names, including Sergey Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow who is known to be loyal to President Putin.”
An engineer and economist by training, Mishustin is described by Russian state media as an efficient servant of the state and the creator of the “best tax collection system in the world”, according to the Russia-24 television channel.
On the website of the Russian Presidency, the results of his service and his work are duly praised by the head of state in the reports of his annual meetings with Putin.
‘Forged in the system’
Married with three children, Mikhail Mishustin joined the Russian administration in 1998. He served as Deputy Minister of the taxation department and worked in several government agencies. He is described by political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann to AFP as “an ideologically neutral figure”.
After a two-year stint in the private sector at the head of an investment fund, UFG Asset Management, he was appointed head of the tax department in 2010 with the task of thoroughly modernising it.
A promoter of the digitisation of the Russian economy, Mishustin is behind the creation of a centralised database designed to improve the efficiency of tax collection and to be accessible to all administrations.
“This is certainly an unexpected appointment, but that doesn’t mean it will be rejected. He has a great deal of experience behind him,” said Ilyas Umakhanov, vice-president of the Council of the Federation, the upper house of parliament, before Mishustin had been approved. “He is someone who has been forged in the system.”
During his presidential terms from 2000 to 2008, Putin had already appointed officials who were unfamiliar to the public – like Mikhail Fradkov in 2004. Their key qualities included that they never sought to overshadow the Russian President.
The announcement of major constitutional reforms and the change of government announced on Wednesday are seen by analysts and opponents as an indication that Putin is now looking very seriously at his political future after the end of his last term as President in 2024.
Some suggested 67-year-old Putin, who is two years into his fourth presidential term and has steered the country since 1999, could be laying the groundwork to assume a new position or remain in a powerful behind-the-scenes role.
Independent political analyst Maria Lipman said to AFP that Putin’s announcement indicated that he wanted to “stay on as number one in the country, without any competitors”.
She said he could be deliberately weakening the presidency before relinquishing the role.
Russia’s opposition also said the proposals indicate Putin’s desire to stay in power.
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Twitter that Putin’s only goal was to “remain the sole leader for life”.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)